OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[BuckeyeNut]

Oddly, Kasich did not set the special election on the same date as the regular election primary. Both the regular election and special election will hold their primary on May 8th, but the special election will take place on August 7th.

[BuckeyeNut]

Oddly, Kasich did not set the special election on the same date as the regular election primary. Both the regular election and special election will hold their primary on May 8th, but the special election will take place on August 7th.

Makes sense. A May 8 general would be cutting it a bit close, wouldn't it?

A little, but it's what he did when Boehner resigned, and it would screw over any chance of a Democrat winning – which is already unlikely, even if it looks like Goyal is going to get in – simply due to turnout.

[BuckeyeNut]

Jay Goyal will not run in the special election for OH-12.

[BuckeyeNut]

Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor is running. This sets up a redux of sorts from the 2016 primaries in Franklin County, where Sheriff Zack Scott and his supporters were voted out of office for not supporting the powers that be and their choice for Mayor. The previous County Recorder was one of Scott’s supporters and lost to O’Connor in 2016.

[BuckeyeNut]

Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor is running. This sets up a redux of sorts from the 2016 primaries in Franklin County, where Sheriff Zack Scott and his supporters were voted out of office for not supporting the powers that be and their choice for Mayor. The previous County Recorder was one of Scott’s supporters and lost to O’Connor in 2016.

He'll probably still lose, but hopefully he can at least give us a respectable nominee.

Yeah, I guess. O'Connor is a much better man than Scott, but I'm a little peeved at these rising stars running for Congress only after serving a year into their first term in any elected office.

[BuckeyeNut]

Interesting development: while the Franklin County establishment continues to rally in support of O’Connor, former Congresswomen Mary Jo Kilroy — the last Democrat to represent any of the land now in OH-12 in the house — is supporting John Russell. Also, O’Connor outed himself as the only Democrat running who doesn’t support single payer.

[BuckeyeNut]

Interesting development: while the Franklin County establishment continues to rally in support of O’Connor, former Congresswomen Mary Jo Kilroy — the last Democrat to represent any of the land now in OH-12 in the house — is supporting John Russell. Also, O’Connor outed himself as the only Democrat running who doesn’t support single payer.

I heard about that the Kilroy endorsement; Russell’s been using her congressional campaign data to do phone banking.  As for O’Connor, I wouldn’t be surprised if he is doing that b/c attacking a Republican for opposing Obamacare could be pretty effective here (at least compared to some of the other available lines).  Almost everyone I’ve talked to about Obamacare thinks it was either universal healthcare or (less common) the same as the Canadian system.  Many voters think the issue boils down to a two option choice between either universal healthcare or a 100% private system and that everything else is just another name for one of those things.

I knew he was doing that, but was under the impression he obtained her list when it looked like he was going to be the only competent candidate running against Scott. So while not entirely surprised at her endorsement, I am a little. No secret I support Russell — it’s right in my signature — but I think he is a stronger candidate than he is being given credit for. Still probably loses the primary — and I don’t think any Democrat other than Goyal could really pull off a win in the general — but I’m rooting for him in any future endeavors. I know he lost the state house race last cycle, but he would be a great candidate for Delaware County Commissioner. Or the State Senate District 19.

[BuckeyeNut]

The Ohio primaries are just days away, and this race is still a sh!t show. There are something like 17 candiates running for this seat, with several noteworthy contenders on both sides

On the Republican side, you have frontrunners Senator Troy Balderson of Zanesville and Township Trustee Melanie Leneghan of Liberty Township. Senator Kevin Bacon of Blendon Township, Delaware County Prosecutor Carol O’Brien, and economist Tim Kane of Dublin are all second tier candidates who will mostly serve to pull Balderson and Leneghan down. There are another five (!) Republicans running, but they’re gadflies who won’t capture any significant vote share.

Balderson and Leneghan are both hard conservative, but as in the primary to replace Boehner, we see a nasty intra-party dynamic emerging. Leneghan has been endorsed by Congressman Jim Jordan and the Freedom caucus, while Balderson’s campaign is enjoying generous financial support from former Congressman Pat Tiberi, who had held this seat since 2001, and represents the Kasich-wing of the Ohio Republican Party. (Don’t be fooled, Balderson still wants to build the wall.)

O’Brien and Bacon represent the Kasich-wing as well, even if they weren’t chosen by the establishment, while Kane is somewhere in between Leneghan and Balderson. He’s more of a grassroots figure, and has enjoyed support from figures like Carly Fiorina and George Schultz. At this point in time, I would wager Leneghan is favored, though whoever wins this prinary could well do so with less than 30% of the vote. When this thread was started late last summer, I said this seat was a waste for Democrats, but in this environment, that’s no longer true. Tilt R worst, Tilt D if Leneghan becomes the Republican nominee.

[BuckeyeNut]

Disappointing but not surprising. FCDP’s ego got in the way of letting this race be run on the merits, which ks a real dhame. Danny O’Connor couldn’t even win the Franklin County portions of OH-12 when he won countywide in his race for Recorder last cycle. The real surprise is that Balderson won — albeit barely.

Tilt R.

[BuckeyeNut]

Disappointing but not surprising. FCDP’s ego got in the way of letting this race be run on the merits, which ks a real shame. Danny O’Connor couldn’t even win the Franklin County portions of OH-12 when he won countywide in his race for Recorder last cycle. The real surprise is that Balderson won — albeit barely.

Tilt R.

I’d argue O’Connor was the best candidate running; the bigger problem was that Goyal didn’t run.

I dunno, I still think John Russell was strongest. He raised over $100k on small dollars alone with O'Connor sucking up a lot of air in the room, and while O'Connor lost the Franklin County portions of OH-12, Russell outran Clinton by at least 7% in OH-HD-68, and by up to 20% more in some areas. Come the GE, Franklin County is only 25% of OH-12, and O'Connor's not even that strong there.

Goyal would have been stronger than Russell, though obviously.

Also, evidently, Jeremy Blake was looking here? That would have been interesting.

[BuckeyeNut]

Balderson is running on build the wall, so even if he isn’t a Freedumb Caucus type, he’s embracing Trump.

And Bexley definitely isnt in OH-12. It’s in OH-03.

[BuckeyeNut]

I thought Balderson was a tea party guy who was begrudgingly embraced by the establishment because he was at least less crazy than Leneghan.

Yeah. Basically. Bacon was the Kasich candidate in the race, but Tiberi and Kasich wings went for Balderson because he was much stronger out of the gate. Even though FCRP endorsed Bacon.

[BuckeyeNut]

Paul Ryan is parachuting in to do a fundraiser with Balderson. $1,000/plate in Dublin.

[BuckeyeNut]

One thing that could hamper Balderson, despite this being a federal election, is his refusal to return money he received from the founder of scandal-plagued ECOT. It plays well into general themes of Republican corruption.

If Democrats steal this race, with Trump's incredibly low approval ratings,  their chances of winning the gubernatorial mansion and sealing the deal on Brown's reelection is that much greater.

Agreed. The special election is scheduled for late August. A nailbiter loss, and especially a win, would realy gin up Democrats and depress Republicans just a few short months later. Ohio Democrats have momentum right now, but we need to do well here.

[BuckeyeNut]

Melanie Leneghan, the Jim Jordan endorsed candidate who lost to Balderson by 653 votes, is going through with a recount request for precincts in Delaware, Franklin, Licking, and Muskingum counties.

[BuckeyeNut]

New PPPP poll has O’Connor down by 2%, up 5% after some message testing on the evils of special interest. I really do think ECOT might have play here, even though it’s a federal election.

[BuckeyeNut]

Leneghan is only challeneging the primary for the general election, not the special.

[BuckeyeNut]

O'Connor's first TV ad is out after Monmouth found him down 10% against Balderson -- though the one past poll showed Balderson only up by 2%. In the ad, O'Connor swings hard against Pelosi, emphasizing that both parties need a change in leadership.

O'Connor's also just received a $17,000 cash infusion from SwingLeft, which is now targeting the district.

[BuckeyeNut]

I think O'Connor's anti-Pelosi pledge is a mixed move at best. Plenty of Columbus Democrats aren't going to be happy about it, but non-Ohio posters seem to underestimate how conservative Delaware, Richland, and Muskingum are.

Tim Ryan's involvement in boosting O'Connor could also definitely be at play here. But unlike some other Democratic candidates — IA-03's Pete D'Allessandro, for example — O'Connor hasn't specified Tim as his would-be leader.

[BuckeyeNut]

JMC poll:

Balderson (R) 46%
O'Connor (R) 35%

Also in the district:

Brown 42%
Renacci 36%

DeWine 42%
Cordray 41%

Trump approval: 54/40

Hard to believe that O’Connor would underperform by so much, but if this poll is accurate, it’s great for Cordray as well, since he’s almost certainly ahead statewide if he’s only down 1 in OH-12.

Well, Cordray has always ran far ahead of Generic D in the Columbus Metro. Considering Clinton's Delaware margins, it isn't totally out of the picture that he ties/wins the county while still losing statewide.

The Columbus metro very large, Cordray does not do well in it per say, he does well in the counties that immediately border Franklin. Ohio’s 12 congressional district is a lot more than the ring of counties around Franklin. If this poll is accurate, it is very good for Cordray, but I feel like it is junk.

[BuckeyeNut]

Melanie Leneghan, the Freedom Caucus candidate who lost to Balderson by 775 votes, is suing Secretary of State and Republican nominee for Lt. Governor, Jon Husted as well as the Muskingum and Franklin County Boards of Election, claiming that improper procedures were used in the recount process. She is seeking to have 16 precincts in Franklin and Muskingum Counties invalidated, which would give her a very narrow primary win.

Whether or not she wins, this is good news for O'Connor, who massively benefits from a divided GOP.

[BuckeyeNut]

Melanie Leneghan, the Freedom Caucus candidate who lost to Balderson by 775 votes, is suing Secretary of State and Republican nominee for Lt. Governor, Jon Husted as well as the Muskingum and Franklin County Boards of Election, claiming that improper procedures were used in the recount process. She is seeking to have 16 precincts in Franklin and Muskingum Counties invalidated, which would give her a very narrow primary win.

Whether or not she wins, this is good news for O'Connor, who massively benefits from a divided GOP.

Aren't her recount hopes more focused on the primary for the special election rather than 4 the General in November, iirc?

Other way around. It would be strange if she was the GE candidate and not then the special candidate, but IIRC, that's happened before. It could also lead to one of the shortest full terms in office ever.

[BuckeyeNut]

O'Connor's failed to capture the public imagination in the way past Special Election Democrats have. While this is, on paper, the most winnable special election yet, I am convinced O'Connor loses. He's just not doing it right. See: this ad. There are a lot of #resistance types in OH-12 that need activating to win, and O'Connor just isn't firing them up. I've got my biases, but am more convinced now than ever before that John Russell was a better candidate for the general election.

Doesn't help that the GOP is running good, mostly factual ads.

[BuckeyeNut]

O'Connor's blowing this.

He's not "blowing it", because he never really had a chance to win that race in the first place.

As I have said months ago, this district does involve a generic Republican (well, even a better version, because Balderson is well liked in the district) and the outgoing Republican was not involved in a sex scandal. Also, Kasich as Governor is popular in OH - so there is no mood for change. Democrats can be happy if the race end up R+8 or something.

While it's true O'Connor is hurt by the fact Tiberi didn't resign in scandal, you're reading the race/district all wrong. Statewide, Kasich is more popular with Democrats than Republicans, but this is still his old stomping grounds and the one Republican district the vestige of the Kasich Republican holds on -- sidling up to him makes sense. It doesn't really hurt O'Connor with anybody. Sidling up Trump, on the other hand, is downright stupid. This is the one Republican-held district that trended to Clinton. R+8 would be a piss poor showing in this environment. It's only a trend of D+3%.

[BuckeyeNut]

And most polls show DeWine and ahead of Cordray and the GOP leading in all races except the Senate race.

No they don’t?

Polling shows Brown as a clear favorite over Renacci, Cordray and DeWine jostling for who is in first, more jostling for the other statewide executives except for Auditor, where the Democrat is leading. House polls do show O’Connor down, but they also show Aftab up. Sadly, there haven’t been any OH-07 or OH-14 polls yet.