Biden infrastructure/tax increase megathread

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Manchin is playing games. He is scaring Democratic leadership to bend to his whims

1.Manchin doesn't like to be rushed
2.Manchin wants his input on EVERYTHING
3. Manchin needs Republican input
4. Bills can't be seen as deficit busting

 “I, for one, won’t support a $3.5 trillion bill, or anywhere near that level of additional spending, without greater clarity about why Congress chooses to ignore the serious effects inflation and debt have on existing government programs,”

The key word is "clarity"

Basically, he wants Democrats to make the argument that this isn't a "progressive" bill but some moderate adjustments to the safety net. And he wants it "paid" for with higher taxes so it isn't seen as "deficit busting"

I do not know how much he wants cut. Hopefully not a lot. But we shouldn't be freaking out just yet

It is paid for. I don't think progressives will support cutting social programs. So what does he want?

Lower tax hikes? Much lower spending? Maybe he wants something like 2 or 2.5T @ best. Maybe the Medicare expansion of Dental or other provisions on Climate Change or Child Tax Credit etc has to go according to Manchin.

Biden can't work with a 50-50 senate beyond 2022. He needs 2 more seats so that Sinema & Manchin can't blackmail him & Sinema needs to be primaried out ASAP. Manchin is from WV & has some right to actually question - Sinema is in a state Biden won where Mark Kelly won & she has no business arguing !

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Bloomberg News report that House Democrats Set to Propose Corporate Tax Rate of 26.5%. The top rate on capital gains would rise from 20% to 25% versus 39.6% that Biden wanted.  I assume this is for those with AGI above $1 million.

Corporate @ 26% or 27% is okay (Manchin is saying 25%, Biden 28%).

Capital gains should be 25% to 30% atleast with a deduction for say 1st 10-20K $ which will make effective rate for low investors substantially below 25 or 30% but it will get 25 to 30% from higher earners.

No1 wants to mess with capital gains because every politician & their relative & campaign contributor will lose huge money. You work hard & pay 30-35% & you sit infront of a PC or phone & earn millions & pay 25% is just ridiculous.

Also given how much the equity market has risen (& will rise given post COVID growth will be strong for 3-4 years), capital gains tax increase will raise substantial more money than 1-2% increase in Corporate Tax or for wealthy people (income tax). Also increasing capital gains will also mean dividend will be taxed @ a slightly higher rate. Democrats must understand the 100s of B of $ this will provide & this will go into trillions within a 10 year period.

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Also even with 3-4% inflation (assuming it comes down from 4-5%) for the next year & bank borrowing rates are near 0, Real Return on banks (Return - Inflation) is virtually negative to 0.

As inflation rises & bank rates remain low (atleast for 2022 & 2023), it will only boost investment in equity & debt market. There is substantial money to be made there with even a small tax increase which can help to create a fairer economy - Paid Leave, Childcare, Healthcare expansion etc etc.

In the future, Democrats should look @ financial markets in a big-way, Financial Transaction tax (Equity, Derivatives, Debt) - even 0.01% can raise massive revenue without majorly damaging the market. The day it becomes 1% or 2% - It will cause turmoil. But a very minuscle amount will raise crazy just due to sheer size of the market !

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So, if Manchin gets his way and the bill is reduced from 3t to 1.5t, what gets removed?

Both bills die. No chance of 1.5 or 2T. I am sure there will be negotiation & it may come down from 3.5T. But to 3T or at worse 2.7/2.8 types, atleast above 2.5T. That is likely the floor for progressives.

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Honestly, the progressives stupidity will cost the Dems any shot at keeping the house next year. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill is enormously popular and badly needed. If they can’t get this passed, Democrats deserve to get wiped out in the midterms.

And it has bad provisions including carbon capture, is basically a debt bill where 100s of billions of $ are borrowed in addition to the unspend covid money which was also borrowing.

If Dems can't get a good reconciliation bill, they should just let it burn & lose both the house & the senate. They have lost on the Min Wage, Immigration & Voting rights & if they can't get Child-care, Paid Leaves, Drug Pricing etc passed - It is better to not pass anything & go down in flames !

Manchin & Sinema will lose in 2024 too anyways !

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KILL THE BILL!!!

House DEMs should vote against if it comes to floor Tomorrow.

Manchin flips DEM > PUB, so be it....

Manchin is no Doug Jones....

A deal is in sight, right now for around $2T. Assuming there is one, then your choice is the reduced bill + infrastructure or nothing. You'll take nothing from that, just because you didn't get a pony? If Manchin really switches parties, then reconciliation is totally dead, and your choice is infrastructure or nothing. You'll take nothing from that? This is seriously irrational decision making and behavior of a spoiled child. Progressives really are becoming the mirror image of the Freedom Caucus.

Manchin is not going to the GOP. He can win never win a GOP primary, he is too liberal for that & has attack ads written all over him - From tax credits for green energy (which he said he will vote), ACA, Tax & spend many provisions & he is too conservative for the Dems.

If the Reconciliation goes, then basically everything goes. It has rammed in 10 different stuff - Pre-K, Childcare, Drug costs, Paid Leave, Climate change (charging stations etc which manchin can agree) & it increases some corporate taxes (though very less).

Already Immigration Reform, Voting rights, Min Wage (which should be easy) are off. If Reconciliations goes on, Biden becomes the worst President in history & has 0 accomplishments except some moderate hard infra (nowhere near as required) & some COVID emegerncy $. It will be a mid-term bloodbath.

Sinema is anyways gone in 2024 & Dems should try to get 2 more seats in 2022 (Assuming Reconciliation passes) so that they can get things passed through reconciliation even without Manchin & Sinema. Realistically most of the Dem Agenda will not pass unless the filibuster is gone. For that you need minimum 52 seats (minus Manchin Sinema) & possibly 53 or 54 seats (say King or Tester etc plays rogue).

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It should be a 2.5-2.7T $ number minimum, atleast more towards 2.5T than 2T, maybe 2.3-2.4T odd.

Beyond that there will be huge cuts & the $ amount will be insufficient.

Without CPC, the Bipartisan infra crashes & Sinema's achievement is a big 0 before she goes into re-election. Does she want a huge win for that or will she blow that up? Same with Manchin.

If they want the bipartisan bill which will bring some jobs & infra to their states which they can tout, they have to go to a reasonable number which will enable - Paid Family Leave, Community College, Child Tax Credit, Lower Drug Prices, Free Childcare, Big investment for Climate change.

It is not possible to cover all those in 1.5T$ !

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https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1444355616613539854?s=10
Sinema looks to be demanding a vote. No idea how she’ll react if it goes down. Probably willing to tank everything now or then if she doesn’t get some victory.

"The failure of the U.S. House to hold a vote on the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act is inexcusable, and deeply disappointing for communities across our country"

Why do Democrats do this to US? Hehe, I wonder, if it will "harden" Manchin & Sinema?

Harden? If she doesn't support reconciliation & the bipartisan bill fails, the most to lose in Sinema apart from Biden. She was the author & she will parade that bill for the next 2-3 years going into her re-election.

Biden has made clear that it was tied to reconciliation & there was always 2 tracks. Pelosi's 27th Vote was based upon reconciliation clearing Senate by then. I don't know why she is surprised given both were always tied together.

Besides she has left DC & is doing expensive fundraisers in resorts with lobbyists & her pac !

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Sinema is basically hard right on economic issues. If he wants to preserve all of Corporate & Wealthy Income tax cuts, then she is basically a Republican. Even Manchin wants some partial roll-back however minor it is & he is in a Trump +30 odd state (WV) while Sinema is in a state Biden with another Dem Senator who also won comfortably !

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https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/578468-sanders-serious-spending-bill-must-include-medicare-expansion-drug-pricing

Sanders says the spending bill must have Medicare expansion and drug pricing reform.

 It's completely inept that the largest purchaser of drugs in the world can not negotiate prices. I have a feeling that if this was ever put to a direct vote at least 75% of the American people would vote yes, on Medicare negotiating the prices they pay for drugs.

 

Sinema is a disgusting woman. Female Ted Cruz - Her stand on a small roll-back on the Trump cut & opposition to drug reform while she fundraises from big pharma is atrocious. She is losing by 50-60% to most Democratic House Reps in a Dem primary for the Senate seat. She is more toast than Manchin but she will do lasting damage for the next 4 years !

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Progressives should tank the bill. This can pass if Sinema agrees to the tax hikes which Manchin supports (25% Corporate, Capital Gains, Income Tax to Pre-trump levels for wealthy folks), Drug negotiations etc - The Paid leave can be managed (Manchin will be convinced).

This hog-wash billionaire tax etc will not raise 2T $. Unrealized capital gains tax is rubbish, illegal & unconstitutional - Will the government pay for unrealized losses as well?

The bill is not paid for. Neither was the Hard Infrastructure because Sinema & others don't want to raise taxes - That is the 1st red line, Build Revenue streams & then work on priorities.

Sinema has the most to lose - She is losing by 30-40% to all Primary challengers & she was the one who did the Hard Infrastructure deal. It was her signature deal & she will campaign with it in 2024 in her re-election event. Without it, everything is a total failure.

Hold it for 2-3 months if need be - Manchin, Sinema has to partially cave - Raise money for Sinema's primary & keep up the pressure on her ! (Manchin is okay - Dems don't deserve to win WV anyways). They will cave - Biden, Pelosi, Schumer will push & so will entire Dem House, Senate Caucus & every Dem politician otherwise everyone becomes a total failure & most of all Biden, Pelosi, Schumer followed by Sinema.

Progressives shouldn't fold - They can get a better deal !

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Progressive Caucus chair Pramila Jayapal told reporters outside the Capitol on Wednesday that over 40 members of her caucus would vote against the infrastructure bill, which has been approved by the Senate, if it came to the floor before the social spending plan is complete and agreed upon by Manchin and other Democratic holdout, Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona.


I think Pramila & the progressive will fold - The so-called left has never had a spine & have been often trampled upon so I am not expecting much.

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Sen. Bernie Sanders says 'the very fabric of American democracy is in danger' if progressive priorities are left out of Biden's social-spending bill


"Let me just say a few words," Sanders said. "Sometimes, when we're inside the beltway, we lose track of reality and where the American people are. "So let me repeat. The American people are very clear about what they want their government to do." He then listed progressive priorities like lowering prescription-drug costs; expanding Medicare to cover vision, hearing and dental health; taxing the rich; and addressing the climate crisis. "The challenge that we face in this really unusual moment in American history is whether we have the courage to stand with the American people and take on very powerful special interests," Sanders said. "And I'm going to do everything that I can support the president's agenda and make sure that we do just that."

"If we fail - in my view, if the American people do not believe that government can work for them and is dominated by powerful special interests, the very fabric of American democracy is in danger," he said. "People will no longer believe have faith that their government represents them. That's what this issue is about."


“Every sensible revenue option seems to be destroyed,” said Mr. Sanders. “It seems to me that almost every sensible progressive revenue option that the president wants, that the American people want, seems to be sabotaged.”

Sanders is taking a combative stand !

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Progressives will fold, like they always do !

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Only 9? Not good

I'd have to hope those numbers will grow once it becomes clear than Manchin and Sinema are trying to swindle us again.

I think this is old news, they were saying in Politico there were 9 ‘hard; noes a few days ago. There are clearly more.

Though, FWIW, 9 is the exact number of the traitors who tried to force a vote earlier this month. Apparently 9 congressmen from the right can drive the caucus and 9 congressmen from the left are a problem to be squashed.

I’ve usually been rather supportive of Pelosi, but I have no idea wtf she thinks she’s doing.

Jayapal said there are several dozen members - Meaning 24 or 36 or more if we have her word. She doesn't have a majority that is for sure in CPC in terms of voting no otherwise she should have said it.

I would guess it is probably 25-35 holdouts who are in different stages. Justice Dems alone are 8-9 odd, there has to be more than that !

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Biden's presidency if a failure no matter how much Bernie, Kamala & others will shout about transformational this that. He can still turn it around but he has no control over his party. It is a tough job in a 50-50 Senate & honestly he has no business with Manchin when he got 30% in West Virginia. But he allowed Sinema to dance on his head - Tax hikes of Wealthy, Drug Reform etc were held up by Sinema. To handle 1 guy is an issue, to handle 2 is a problem.

Plus the whole Congress looks dysfunctional. And Schumer must also take blame. Pelosi with a 3 vote majority has done a good job, Schumer is a total failure with no control or pull or sway.

Terry is a terrible, cookie cutter, neo liberal, garbage candidate. No1 is motivated to vote for him. The so-called moderates have no electability & you need turn-out in non-Presidential year races. Look @ Georgia where Dems campaigned on 2K & won & passed Stimulus - Biden's approvals were quite high.

He mis-handled Afghanistan too - Even Dems will admit. He gets caught sleeping in COP26 & he stammers, stumbles & speaks non-sense most of the time. Totally slow, dull, uninspiring President. And he couldn't even get something as basic as Paid Family Leave passed & couldn't repeat any of Trump's tax cuts against whom every Dems voted. If he can't do the bare minimum stuff, then he will drag this party done. Dems need an inspiring bold leader !

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The best thing was to do 1 single clean bill like Bernie had said. This SALT thing (giving tax breaks to rich folks) is a mess when Biden can't pass Paid Family Leave & can't repeal any of Trump's tax cuts for the wealthy which Dems were supposed to hate.

Basically very little for large profitable corporate whose rates were cut dramatically & the rich folks in Dem states also get a tax cut (& child tax credit) while the working families get shafted with a mediocre ridiculous bill.

And for those shouting about hard infra, it takes time to visible see it & see the impact on jobs. There is no magic bullet when your President is looked as incompetent !

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The moderates continue losing though - I can see a few Blue Dogs losing primary in 2022 (some of whom are in very blue districts).

Biden is a moderate, Terry is a moderate. And the bland moderate politics got nothing - 0, likely worse than progressives. Manchin & Sinema are running the country & 1 will lose the seat to a Republican & the other will lose the primary.

This is sort of an inflection point - The Democratic party is more united behind a progressive agenda than they have ever been in a post-Reagan era - Sure they probably won't support a Medicare-for-all but the transition has largely happened & will be completed in the next 4-5 years !