Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Shadows]

Yea Dems have flopped even if they take the house. Forget Blue Wave, Dems never expected to lose FL, or lose  IN, ND or MO by 10-15%. All these were supposed to be single digit losses at worse & perhaps a win or 2.

Florida is deeply disappointing. FL will now have a GOP Racist Extremist Gov. with 2 GOP Senators. Dems will be losing atleast 30-40 seats with a margin of 5-7% & under & they could have won most of these seats under the right conditions.

This is not a wave. Despite freakin' Trump, Dems will narrow sneak a House Victory while losing key Senate seats.

[Shadows]

Anyone talking about the Sun Belt being a viable strategy is delusional. Dems lost TX, FL & will likely lose AZ as well & the Georgia Gov. race. The Sun Belt will be in play only in 2028 (where maybe Dems can win all of the key states).

Tom Wolf & Casey crushed GOP by 15-20% points. Dems swept PA & won huge gains in the House (Even with re-redistricting, they won a huge share of the votes), Brown won, Stabenow will in double digits, MI Gov. race will go Blue, Baldwin win near to double digits. The WI Gov. race is close.

Trump can easily lose 2020 if Dems find a competent candidate who can lock up WI, MI & PA. Not to mention, Trump or the GOP has little chance to pick CO or NH in 2020. And NV looks hard as well !

The Mid-west swung away from Trump & Obama-Trump districts went Blue in 2018. Also, MN was a Blowout- 30-40% points victories in Senate & Gov. races ( A state Trump won by 2 % !!!!!)

[Shadows]

If Dems don't sweep MT, AZ, and NV, I'm not sure that they'll ever win back the Senate.

This. CO looks like the only pick-up. Maybe NC even Trump loses by 5-6% in 2020. Maybe ME in a Dem Wave year.

It is likely that 2020 under a Dem President will have a GOP President & McConnell as Majority Leader obstructing anything & everything !

[Shadows]

Anyone talking about the Sun Belt being a viable strategy is delusional. Dems lost TX, FL & will likely lose AZ as well & the Georgia Gov. race. The Sun Belt will be in play only in 2028 (where maybe Dems can win all of the key states).

Tom Wolf & Casey crushed GOP by 15-20% points. Dems swept PA & won huge gains in the House (Even with re-redistricting, they won a huge share of the votes), Brown won, Stabenow will in double digits, MI Gov. race will go Blue, Baldwin win near to double digits. The WI Gov. race is close.

Trump can easily lose 2020 if Dems find a competent candidate who can lock up WI, MI & PA. Not to mention, Trump or the GOP has little chance to pick CO or NH in 2020. And NV looks hard as well !

The Mid-west swung away from Trump & Obama-Trump districts went Blue in 2018. Also, MN was a Blowout- 30-40% points victories in Senate & Gov. races ( A state Trump won by 2 % !!!!!)

Cool so everything can get blocked in the Senate with a GOP senate.

And Thomas can decide if he wants to retire next year.

The Senate looks terrible. Dems have literally no chance to win the Senate in 2020. 2022 with a Dem President & Dems winning 3-4 Senate seats look very hard.

The Senate may have been lost for a long time. Probably, Divided House for the foreseeable future. Nothing gets done ! McConnell as Majority Leader obstructing everything. Only way you can get anything passed if you cut SS & Medicare !

[Shadows]

On the bright side outside judges, a GOP Senate isn't really that bad because Republican don't have any ideas. And the one they do have are unpopular.

It is a DISASTER. Dems can't win 5-6 seats in 2020 & so an incumbent Dem president will have a GOP Senate with McConnell as Leader. I doubt 2022 with a Dem President will be a net DEM+ year.

So basically a wasted 1st term. Maybe no SC judges. Maybe McConnell will block Cabinet positions. Maybe McConnell will force cuts to Medicare & SS for any budget to be passed.

DISASTER. One of the biggest Republican victories in decades !

[Shadows]

F*** that. Democrats have to get over trying to win Miss Congeniality or be happy with the silver medal. Go for the win. This is why people have trouble taking the Democratic party seriously.

Democrats need to understand that it is perfectly okay to adopt Vince Lombardi's motto that winning isn't the most important thing, it's the only thing! And yet at the same time not be some date raping Joc from like for example grab a 15 year-old girl in a party cover her mouth keep her against her will while squee turns Up the Volume so others can't hear her struggling.

I mean, Dems won the national popular vote by something like 10 points, right? What do you want? How much do Dems have to win by and still lose for you to stop blaming voters for voting for Dems and start blaming the system for not reflecting the will of the voters?

If Dems won by 15 and lost seats in the Senate, would you blame the voters for not voting strongly enough Dem?

If Dems won by 20?

Should Dems need to win by 25?

What would be the appropriate threshold?

Dems should never have failed to take back the senate in 2016 in the first place. That whole election was unforgivable as we're still paying for it.

Absolutely. Thanks to Hillary Clinton. Dems should have won FL, WI, PA, NC, IN & MO. All 6 were winnable. If atleast 3 or 4 would have been won, then maybe their would be a Dem Senate & no Kavanaugh, no Tax cuts for Billionaires.

2016 was unforgivable !

[Shadows]

So, whats the latest n Montana? It seems to be the last open senate seat up for grabs tonight since Arizona won't likely be called for another day or two.

I think Tester will win and it won't even be that close.  The remaining vote is heavily weighted toward Gallatin and Missoula.

Big portion of Missoula is left. He can make 15,000 votes there & he is down by 4000. This is not hard. Gianforte is up 23,000 so he is possibly safe. He will make it by 10,000+ or so.

Dems need to get Bullock to run for the Senate & need to recruit a strong candidate for the House. Montana looks promising !

[Shadows]

Absolutely. Thanks to Hillary Clinton. Dems should have won FL, WI, PA, NC, IN & MO. All 6 were winnable. If atleast 3 or 4 would have been won, then maybe their would be a Dem Senate & no Kavanaugh, no Tax cuts for Billionaires.

2016 was unforgivable !

I didn't vote for Hillary Clinton either (in the Dem primary), but the voters did. Both in the primary and the general election (and I voted for her in that). And likewise the voters voted for Democrats to control the Senate in 2016.

So don't blame the voters for the failures of the American electoral system, it is not their fault.

Has nothing to do with voters. For one to address Gerrymandering, Dems have to do amazing down-ballot. No use cribbing about the system. it is what it is. Then accept defeat & say nothing is possible in the present system.

The point is 2016 performance should have been better. No Dem should have lost WI, PA & MI to Trump which effectively cost 2 Senate Seats. If there was a better candidate, then OH, FL, NC, MO & IN Senate seats would be in play.

Democrats could have won 8 more seats & would have had 59 freakin' seats now. That was supposed to be a blowout year vs a candidate like Trump. And the top of the ticket dragged everyone down.

Anyways no use cribbing about 2016. But Dems should have 4 -5 more Senate Seats atleast & would have control of both houses today. There was no electoral issue with Senate Seats. It was straight Popular votes in states like WI or PA. No use cribbing Dakotas having 4 seats vs 2 for Cal !

[Shadows]

Looks like Dems will win the House Popular Vote by around 4% which is not the 6%, 8%, 10% etc figures we were hearing. It it less than 2006 & 2008. So this isn't a wave. This is like only 2% better than 2016.

If Dems had done 3-4% better like it was expected (D+7/8), probably 30-35 more House seats would have been in play & FL/AZ would have been easy wins with perhaps an upset in Texas ! Maybe we would have had a 51-49 GOP Senate even if ND, IN & MO were gone.

4-5% certainly isn't a wave.  What is shocking is Florida went 5% to the right of the National PV.