Democratic Nevada Caucus results thread (entrance poll @2pm ET) (user search)
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  Democratic Nevada Caucus results thread (entrance poll @2pm ET) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Democratic Nevada Caucus results thread (entrance poll @2pm ET)  (Read 46655 times)
RaphaelDLG
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« on: February 20, 2016, 10:58:33 PM »



I think he absolutely has to win the five Sanders states on Super Tuesday to have favorable enough media coverage and fundraising to stay alive until the states that he has strong fundamentals in.  

Clinton is going to murder him in all of the states with a ton of black people that are coming up and he's going to look really bad.  Fingers crossed that he can pull some rabbits out of his hat.  It's not impossible, but it's not likely.
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RaphaelDLG
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« Reply #1 on: February 20, 2016, 11:13:02 PM »

yeah, he's in a spot where he shouldn't spend much time in SC, but spend it trying to turn 5 states on Super Tuesday. The problem is that 6 Super Tuesday primaries (VA/GA/AL/TN/AR/TX) are in states whose electorates have some big similarities to SC.

IMO he should punt all southern states/any state with a large black vote until he has money/favorable media coverage again because Clinton is just way, way too formidable there for it not to be a critical mismanagement of resources.  To win obviously he can't keep getting murdered delegate wise but in terms of the media narrative I think winning states is probably more valuable.  I'm sure that's what Weaver/Devine are going to do. 

Also I'm just generally really surprised he hasn't got Howie Deaned yet, although I guess we live in a different age/there's still plenty of time for that to happen.
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RaphaelDLG
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« Reply #2 on: February 21, 2016, 01:11:08 AM »

It must be a conspiracy that those darn 30 precincts from non-Clark counties won't man up and report!

DWS driving her SUV around in the rural Nevadan desert tampering with the results confirmed. 

Also, aliens.
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RaphaelDLG
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« Reply #3 on: February 21, 2016, 01:50:28 AM »

Off this topic - good analysis on Vox basically backing up the common sense idea that one does not win the most Latino-heavy parts of the state, by losing the Latino vote by 8. And therefore it's obvious Sanders won whites by a bigger margin than 2.

Haven't read it yet and am not sure of the extent of the areas in question, but it's absolutely possible if one candidate had a much better door-to-door canvassing operation in those neighborhoods when compared to the rest of the state/electorate. Clinton was on the ground for almost a year in Nevada and even from the beginning, she knew that Latinos would be one of the most likely bellwethers in that state.

Hispanics aren't some monolith that only exists in certain precincts. They are 28% of the state's population. And those the vote in those precincts (which isn't all Hispanics) isn't necessarily going to be the same as the vote in the rest of the state. Vox is clearly in the bag for Hillary anyways.

C'mon, Vox is nowhere close to Washington Post, Slate, or even New York Times levels of in the bag! 

They have a few hackish columnists and a few that are brainwashed by the beltway consensus, but I think they are much fairer than most DC outlets, tbh.

And most importantly their point here is blatantly logical.
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RaphaelDLG
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« Reply #4 on: February 21, 2016, 10:12:03 PM »

Bernie Sanders seems to be going along with the "we won the Latino vote" narrative. Ignorance or dishonesty?

Neither, though obviously he didn't win the Latino vote.
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