"The most accurate political bellwether in the country" (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 10, 2024, 09:32:50 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  "The most accurate political bellwether in the country" (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: "The most accurate political bellwether in the country"  (Read 506 times)
Adam the Gr8
AM33
Rookie
**
Posts: 117
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.55, S: 0.70

« on: January 30, 2016, 04:03:32 PM »
« edited: January 30, 2016, 04:23:45 PM by Adam the Gr8 »

I present to you WIU's Mock Presidential Election, the most accurate political bellwether in the country!
AND their, clearly accurate, prediction!
 
Sanders/O'Malley: 404
Bush/Rubio: 114


This has to be a joke, right? I even plugged in the states and the prediction's map and EV count don't even match up.
Logged
Adam the Gr8
AM33
Rookie
**
Posts: 117
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.55, S: 0.70

« Reply #1 on: January 30, 2016, 04:17:38 PM »

Yeah, this has been going around for months. Supposedly, they have a perfect track record of picking the eventual nominees of each party going back to 1975, but when I looked, I could only find examples of their mock poll results published online for 2007 and 2011. I wasn't even able to find that specific claim on WIU's site.

In their defense, I don't think they ever claimed that their electoral projections state-by-state are accurate (I believe those votes are determined based on the student voters' states of origin), but I have had more than one infuriating conversation on social media with Sanders supporters over how there's no way in hell that Sanders wins WY and a dozen other states while losing IL, MD & HI.

At any rate, I think they're going to be wrong this cycle, even if their track record of accuracy goes back as long as some have claimed.
I was thinking the same thing about the student's home states, but Illinois is red and it's Western Illinois University. Assuming the majority of students are from Illinois other than just a handful, I wouldn't think Bush would be chosen over Bernie. And I don't see any explanation for PA just being blank and like I said the EV totals don't even match the map.
Logged
Adam the Gr8
AM33
Rookie
**
Posts: 117
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.55, S: 0.70

« Reply #2 on: January 30, 2016, 04:20:19 PM »

I have had more than one infuriating conversation on social media with Sanders supporters over how there's no way in hell that Sanders wins WY and a dozen other states while losing IL, MD & HI.

The Bernie strike force on Twitter actually believes this crap?! Dear god.
I saw this shared on a few Berniebro's walls on Facebook. And it was reported by NBC Chicago.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.023 seconds with 11 queries.