2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[psychprofessor]

To be honest, it's hard not to get excited/confident about Texas. If they are already at 71% of the TOTAL 2016 vote, and we know early vote favors Dems, I think it's gonna a pretty tall order for Republicans to totally erase that.

If early turnout matched 2016 and Dems had the advantage, that's one thing. But this, combined with the changing demographics of the state. I can't help it, I'm feeling really optimistic.

There really isn't one place where Dem turnout isn't enthusiastic. This isn't 2016 - the question becomes does Dem turnout overtake R's in states like NC, GA, AZ and TX? I think Biden can win one or two of these states if the election were today.

[psychprofessor]

To take some red avatars off the ledge in FLA:

From St. Pete Polls -

We continue to poll down ballot races individually to give us a better sense of the statewide.

Trump is down in our polls by so much in Pinellas and Sarasota and Seminole, I want to know where he is picking up votes.

[psychprofessor]

To take some red avatars off the ledge in FLA:

From St. Pete Polls -

We continue to poll down ballot races individually to give us a better sense of the statewide.

Trump is down in our polls by so much in Pinellas and Sarasota and Seminole, I want to know where he is picking up votes.

might be picking up votes in miami and doing very strong in rural and non metro florida to the same level as 2016.

Sure, but he only won the state by 100k. Don't look at raw numbers right now - look at turnout % for D's and R's. In 2016, Trump won by a little over a point while R's won turnout by 7%. If D's can keep close with turnout % they will be very good in Florida.

[psychprofessor]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320091877014724612?s=21

Honestly, these numbers are underwhelming for Trump IMO in light of the massive Dem VBM advantage.  It seems like the GOP is on track to get the typical 80% turnout, which might have been enough in 2016 when Dem turnout was down but probably not enough this year, especially when Indies are going to swing to Biden.

Further, look at how NPA's are voting, almost 2:1 VBM. That is interesting. It may show a bias toward voting D if D's are trending VBM and R's early in person. The NPA's are breaking 2:1 VBM.

[psychprofessor]

Interesting link - Bloomberg's data company estimates Biden is up by 11 in Florida with modeled vote so far - or over 600k votes.

https://www.hawkfish.us/early-vote-florida/fl-102520

[psychprofessor]

I thought the talking point was a 600k lead in feral after EV ended?

I know everybody says that the Dems need a 600k lead, but how do we know that?

This was supposed to be a 600k vote lead in VBM - D's have exceeded that so far.

[psychprofessor]

Texas about to be ground zero for disenfranchisement:

Mark Joseph Stern
@mjs_DC
·
15m
Texas Republicans have asked a federal judge to throw out 100,000 ballots in Harris County cast through curbside voting. They drew Judge Andrew Hanen, one of the most notoriously partisan Republican judges in the entire federal judiciary. This is alarming.

[psychprofessor]

Texas about to be ground zero for disenfranchisement:

Mark Joseph Stern
@mjs_DC
·
15m
Texas Republicans have asked a federal judge to throw out 100,000 ballots in Harris County cast through curbside voting. They drew Judge Andrew Hanen, one of the most notoriously partisan Republican judges in the entire federal judiciary. This is alarming.

We will never live this down if this happens

This is going all the way to SCOTUS unfortunately. This judge will throw them out, guaranteed.

[psychprofessor]

Republicans surge to a 46,000 ballot lead in Maricopa.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1322998727758344192

i'm hoping republicans can get close to a 100k lead

Look at the raw numbers - D's have added almost 100k voters compared to 2016 when R's only won by 3 in the county. Maricopa could be a double digit Biden win.

[psychprofessor]

In line at the Rome, GA rally.  Been asking around and the majority are waiting until Tuesday.  There’s wayyyyyyyyy more people here than the Macon rally a couple weeks ago.  Line is miles long

You are also right across the Alabama state line, so that’s something.

correct.  My main point was most people I’ve asked haven’t voted yet.  I got here 3 hours early and I’m fairly confident I won’t get in the rally lol.  The Macon rally I did the same and was within 50 yards of Trump.

Floyd county has 57k registered voters. In 2016, 34k voted, and the county was roughly 70/30 Trump. As of today, over 30k have already voted. I think a majority of people in the county have already cast a ballot.

[psychprofessor]

Jen O'Malley Dillon dropping internals...looks good for Biden

[psychprofessor]

https://twitter.com/snowmanomics/status/1323329093136506882/photo/1

O'Malley Dillon internals