The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[psychprofessor]

Nikki Haley would be a, potentially, tough candidate for Dems to face in 2024...

Can you explain to me - like I'm a kindergartener - why you and so many others believe this? What is her unique appeal? She strikes me as a Rubio-esque paper tiger: checks all the boxes from a Beltway lens but would not actually resonate with everyday voters.

Not to mention a bigger issue, in my opinion, that by 2024, she'll have been out of office for 6 years and out of elected office for 8 years. Not clear to me how she keeps herself relevant (or if she even is relevant today, beyond the small number of people who avidly follow politics).

Regarding Nikki Haley...

She definitely isn't a policy wonk or Ivy Educated... but she has very shrewd political instincts.  And she is good at talking in plain language (no senate speak) which seems to appeal to a wide audience. Also in this regard, she knows how to talk about policy or political topics, in a way that comes across as fairly moderate (regardless of how moderate or conservative the position she is describing actually is)... which could hurt her in a republican primary. But overall she is fairly quick-witted, comfortable under pressure,  a talented at portraying an understated southern charm.

Her ability to come across as the working mom next door... is partly because not too long ago- that's exactly what she was. Nikki grew up just outside of Lexington SC, went to Clemson, then moved back to work (doing the accounting) for her parent's local dress shop.

My older sister is 3-4 years younger than Nikki. They both live in Lexington, SC and my niece and nephew are the same age as Nikki's kids.  Although she & my sister were not best friends (as they were about 4 years apart)...Nikki & her husband & my sister and brother-in-law were in the same extended circle of friends in Lexington (& their kids went to the same local preschool (which a common friend of theirs owned) when they were toddlers & were good friends... Nikki's brother-in-law was their local Dentist, etc. So Nikki was literally sort of the girl next door.

So I can remember my sister thinking it was neat when Nikki (at age 33 or 34), decided to run for the State House seat for Lexington (with no prior political experience)... which she won.  Then about 5-6 years later, Nikki jumped into the Republican Gubernatorial Primary...which she won (then easily won the General... as Republicans usually do in SC). Fast-forward another 5-6 years, and Nikki is appointed to be the Ambassador to the UN.  So she sort of seemed to go from winning a local State House race... to UN ambassador, in very short order.

But her political savvy is highlight by who she (as a complete political novice) defeated in both of those early races.  In her 1st race (State House Seat)- she entered the Republican Primary to challenge (and defeated) the local incumbent republican State House member in Lexington (who at the time, was the longest-serving State House member in SC).  

Then, after only a couple of terms in the State House, she entered the Republican Gubernatorial primary as sort of a long shot (due to limited political experience & due to the fact that SC had never elected a Female.. or minority... Governor (or Senator).
  
Additionally, the other 3 candidates in the primary were:
-Gresham Barrett (popular 3-term US Congressman... who she defeated in the run-off)
-Andre Bauer (the outgoing 2 term Lt Governor...Mark Sandford was the outgoing 2nd term as Gov)
-Henry McMaster (the outgoing 2-term Atty General & prior 8 year SC Repub Party Chair & now-Current Gov).

So she defeated the longest-serving state house member in a primary for her 1st election.  Then, still with fairly limited political experience, became the first Minority & first Female SC Governor, by winning a primary against the serving 8 year Lt. Governor, the serving 8 year Atty General, and a popular 3 term sitting US House member.  It takes shrewd & keen political instincts to successfully win those elections against very seasoned candidates (and all of her races were basically decided in the Primary... since SC is dominated by Republican Party).  Nikki has in fact never lost an election.

Interesting side note (which many may already know)... Nikki 1st decided to run for office (the original Republican statehouse primary race), after being inspired by a speech she went to hear... given by Hillary Clinton. (Hillary was in town (Columbia) to speak to a women's group/organization- (can't remember which) on the topic of women in politics.

That is a very thorough and helpful explanation! Thank you!

How do you feel about my concern re: her length of time out of office? How do you think she'll keep herself relevant?

Please, Niki Hayley has no appeal for Trump's white, non educated base. She's a non starter as POTUS candidate.