CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

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Tonight's CA-48 update: Rouda cuts the gap to 114.

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   51,380   30.4%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   29,292   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   29,178   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   26,840   15.9%

Orange County turnout is now at 40%, with many votes still to be counted.

This was the first day apparently that they were mainly counting provisional ballots after several days of counting mail ballots that came in late or were taken to the polls directly. Keirstead added 919. Rouda added 1,140. Head to head, Harley beat Hans by nearly 11% and by five percent in the vote totals for all four. There 36,500 provisional ballots left to count in Orange County, meaning something like 8k to 13k in this race. Rouda is in excellent position and could take the lead when counting resumes Monday if this keeps up.

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Wow so 48 provisionals have been counted today and all that’s left is one more dump tomorrow. I think Rouda might not have this https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1008558916739969024

Rouda's inevitability was based on assuming that between a 1/4 and 1/3 of the remaining OC vote was in this race but it makes a ton of sense that they would just count the CA48 first.

Redistrict then went in to chime in with this after the link you tweeted:
"To clarify, source says about 80% of the ~4.5k outstanding in #CA48 are provisionals (which favor Rouda) and 20% are vote by mail (which favor Keirstead). Rouda still favored but not by much."

The votes Redistrict is referring to were actually counted Saturday and included in that update, not today. Redistrict only got around to tweeting about it today. If his source is correct, it will indeed be super tight with tomorrow being decisive.

Assuming the 4500 votes come in at the exact proportion/percentage to the Saturday votes (a big but seemingly fair assumption,) Rouda would add 815 votes and Keirstead would add 657. That's a net of 158, with Rouda overcoming the current deficit of 114 by a mere 44 votes. It could go either way, but Rouda still seems like the favorite given the large percentage of the 4.5k being from election day which Rouda has won decisively thus far.

Just hope it somehow doesn't end up a crazy tie. 5 pm pst Tomorrow at ocvote.com will be bannanas.

[gf20202]

Assuming the 4500 votes come in at the exact proportion/percentage to the Saturday votes (a big but seemingly fair assumption,) Rouda would add 815 votes and Keirstead would add 657. That's a net of 158, with Rouda overcoming the current deficit of 114 by a mere 44 votes. It could go either way, but Rouda still seems like the favorite given the large percentage of the 4.5k being from election day which Rouda has won decisively thus far.

And the crucial update that just came in from ocvote.com....

HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   29,575   17.3%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   29,535   17.2%

40 votes lead by Harley! Not far off my estimate!

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In CA-48, top 16 vote-getters received a total of 2196 votes in the new update where as Redistrict expected it to be around 4,500 votes counted. There could have been write-in or blank voters, as well as some provisional votes not accepted to cover some of that discrepenacy. But it's possible there are some remaining provisional votes left.

A OC Register reporter tweeted that it should be finalized either way tomorrow:

@JordanSGraham:
@HarleyRouda has taken the lead in #CA48 & now leads by 40 votes after trailing Keirstead for 2 weeks since Election Day. Keirstead did better in mail-in ballots, but so far Rouda is winning provisionals. Final results should come tomorrow. Winner faces Rohrabacher in Nov.

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Via @allymutnick, we have hit the finale:
"@OCRegistrar expected to finish counting outstanding #CA48 ballots Tuesday & will release at 8PM ET. Per Orange County source: less than 1000 ballots remain & over half are provisionals, which have favored @HarleyRouda (D)."

Very daunting math for Keirstead given how few votes are left. A 40/41 vote swing the other way would involve Kierstead beating Rouda by at least 14% in votes between the two of them. More likely that Rouda nets an additional 60-70 votes.

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* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   52,520   30.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   29,873   17.3%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   29,804   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   27,412   15.8%

Rouda by 69.

Nice

Doesn't seem like Keirstead will ask and pay for a recount from their shared rhetoric since election day. so this may be officially over and certified next week.