MO - Remington: Hawley 37%, Wagner 16% in GOP Primary

[Heisenberg]

Why is Hawley considered weak?

He was just elected to his current post, so announcing a run for higher office only months after winning his current office just looks so nakedly ambitious. Also, he's pretty extreme and polarizing, and would have less crossover appeal than Wagner, who's super popular in her suburban STL district.

[Heisenberg]

Why is Hawley considered weak?

He was just elected to his current post, so announcing a run for higher office only months after winning his current office just looks so nakedly ambitious. Also, he's pretty extreme and polarizing, and would have less crossover appeal than Wagner, who's super popular in her suburban STL district.

Is he that extreme or polarizing? It might just be that my congressional district (Missouri's 2nd) got different advertising than the rest of the state, but nearly every ad I remember seeing from Hawley were overwhelmingly positive. The most 'scathing' attack against his opponent that I can remember was "she's a career politician"

Position wise, I personally can't think of any position where he's different than Wagner (who is more conservative than people presume, and also is less popular in her home district than people presume.   There was not much love for her at the Cruz rally in Missouri's second in March 2016 - she was heckled by a number of people in the audience). I'm willing to admit that I might not have been the most educated voter, but when I voted for both Wagner and Hawley in November, I didn't think there was anything that set them apart from the standard GOP orthodoxy.

Wagner would probably do better among College Educated Whites in the suburbs yes (more a function of her reputation as establishment than any actual position differences that I'm aware of), but Hawley would likely do better in rural Missouri.

I do agree that running for office this soon is a weakness, but I don't think it is as devastating as people here are implying. It doesn't look good, but this attack won't have as much weight coming from McCaskill, as she also sought higher office while she was only halfway through an elected statewide term.

I personally think Wagner's flipflopping vis-a-vis her stance on Trump is probably more damaging. Also, the establishment from either party is unpopular right now in Missouri, and Hawley's status as an 'outsider' (I don't think of him as such now that he has elected office, but people considered Kander an outsider just the same) is a real strength.

Well, people tend to overestimate the strength of rural voters. For every rural Republican, there are two or even three more in the inner city or suburbs/exburbs. Hawley would easily be viewed as a "Bible-thumper" which wouldn't play so well in the inner cities, where way more voters live. Him being polarizing has to do with his extensive work on the Hobby Lobby case, which a lot of the suburbanites probably won't like.