Big 3 Race Rating Changes (Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato)

[Heisenberg]

I can't believe Colorado is Safe Democratic two months before election day. Mark Udall must be jealous.

That's because this is the year of Trump, and Glenn is just beyond awful. Any other Republican nominee and the race would only be Likely D, at the most, at this time.

[Heisenberg]

The fact that a dem has a chance in the MN02 district leaves me in glee. We been trying to dust the guy out but its worse that his seat could be replaced by a hack like Lewis.

MN-02 is the kind of seat Democrats need to basically have in the bag right now, and it does appear that way. For the House to fall, we need seats like MN-03. If seats like MN-03 fall, it means college-educated whites are abandoning the Republican Party entirely from top to bottom. I don't see that happening right now, but we'll see over the course of the next 64 days what happens. As I've said before, if there's a wave to be had, it really won't show until October.

Paulson is a strong candidate, and pretty moderate. Most college educated Whites already know he is no Trump. He is here to stay.

[Heisenberg]

Paulsen historically has a strong ground campaign and has made inroads into demographics which won't lower. He's never been reliant on college educated whites because there's no helping him there by the Minnesota GOP and the NRCCC. I'm hopeful he wins, and that Klobuchar gets into Hillary's cabinet. He'd be a strong candidate statewide and might manage to fix the Minnesota Republican Party.

Maybe he's not reliant on those types of voters because he's taken them for granted. Democrats do have a strong candidate for the district. It is a core suburban district where Trump is likely to vastly underperform. I do appreciate your optimism about having a reasonable and sane Republican Party, but as a Democrat, I think it's far more important right now to have a unified government in 2017. That means Erik Paulsen needs to be defeated so Democrats can take back the House.

No, Paulsen's managed to win in spite of him not getting any GOTV for college whites. I'm not concerned about a sane and reasonable GOP. I just wish the Minnesota state party would become better and more competitive. It's not good for a state that could be competitive to not have two strong state parties competing.

Paulsen would be a great statewide candidate. I would love to see a Senator Paulsen, though the only realistic way I can see it happening is him first winning in a special election.

[Heisenberg]

I could see him beating Klobuchar. Franken's far too charismatic to lose a race.

As an actual resident of MN, I can tell you that Klobuchar is far more popular. Heck, Bachmann's District voted for her in '12.

Paulsen is closer to the center, but the state does have a Democratic lean. Kurt Bills (Klobuchar's 2012 opponent) only won 2 or 3 counties in the Southwest corner. He seemed like a completely incompetent candidate who wasn't even serious from what I've heard (Wulfric, was that true?), not to mention that it was one of the first races national Republican groups triaged.

[Heisenberg]

I could see him beating Klobuchar. Franken's far too charismatic to lose a race.

As an actual resident of MN, I can tell you that Klobuchar is far more popular. Heck, Bachmann's District voted for her in '12.

Has Klobuchar ever faced an actual opponent?

Regardless of your ideology, I'm sure most people can agree Franken is a better person than Klobuchar and definitely more charismatic.

Yes, her 2006 opponent was an incumbent congressman.

Anecdotal Evidence is ancedotal, but my grandfather, who is conservative on everything except Medicare/SS, likes Klobuchar but despises Franken.

It also helped that 2006 was a MASSIVE Democratic wave. Also, from what I've heard, Klobuchar's has more crossover appeal than Franken. The anecdote seems to prove it.

[Heisenberg]

New Cook rating changes:
House:
AZ-09: Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic
NY-03: Toss-up to Leans Democratic
KS-03: Solid Republican to Likely Republican
CA-49: Likely Republican to Leans Republican
CO-03: Leans Republican to Likely Republican
UT-04: Toss-up to Leans Republican
NE-02: Leans Democratic to Toss-up
MI-11: Likely Republican to Solid Republican

Senate
OH-Sen: Toss-up to Leans Republican
IL-Sen: Toss-up to Leans Democratic
WI-Sen: Toss-up to Leans Democratic

[Heisenberg]

New Sabato House rating changes:
CA-24: Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic
IA-03: Toss-up to Leans Republican
ME-02: Toss-up to Leans Republican
NY-03: Toss-up to Leans Democratic
UT-04: Toss-up to Leans Republican

[Heisenberg]

New Cook House rating changes:
AZ-02: Leans Republican to Likely Republican
FL-07: Leans Republican to Toss-up
IA-01: Leans Democratic to Toss-up
IN-02: Solid Republican to Likely Republican
NY-01: Toss-up to Leans Republican
NY-24: Toss-up to Leans Republican
WA-08: Likely Republican to Solid Republican
WI-08: Toss-up to Leans Republican

Senate:
Missouri: Leans Republican to Toss-up

[Heisenberg]

Rothenberg also provided rating updates.
House:
AZ-01: Pure Toss-up to Toss-up/Tilt D
CA-49: Solid Republican to Republican Favored
FL-07: Leans Republican to Toss-up/Tilt R
FL-13: Democrat Favored to Leans Democratic[/color]
IA-01: Leans Democratic to Toss-up
IA-03: Pure Toss-up to Toss-up/Tilt R
MI-01: Leans Republican to Toss-up/Tilt R
MI-07: Toss-up/Tilt R to Leans Republican
NJ-05: Leans Republican to Toss-up/Tilt R
NY-01: Toss-up to Leans Republican
NY-19: Toss-up/Tilt R to Pure Toss-up
NY-24: Pure Toss-up to Toss-up/Tilt R
WI-08: Toss-up/Tilt R to Leans Republican

Senate:
Arizona: Leans Republican to Republican Favored
Florida: Toss-up to Leans Republican
Missouri: Leans Republican to Toss-up/Tilt R
Ohio: Leans Republican to Republican Favored
Wisconsin: Toss-up/Tilt D to Leans Democratic

[Heisenberg]

Here are Sabato's new House ratings, all five towards Democrats:

CA-49: Likely Republican to Leans Republican
FL-07: Leans Republican to Toss-up
KS-03: Likely Republican to Leans Republican
NJ-05: Leans Republican to Toss-up
NY-03: Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic
VA-05: Safe Republican to Likely Republican

[Heisenberg]

Sabato shifts FL-SEN from Likely R to Lean R. Funny, the DSCC told me that the Rubioslide was infinitely growing.

Probably just a correction, or a move out of caution.