This looks interesting, so I'm giving it a go. Here is 2008, same Republican nominee.
380: Hillary Clinton/Evan Bayh
158: John McCain/Sarah Palin
Governor Daniels appoints Dan Coats to his old seat after Bayh becomes VP. Clinton's first term is much like Obama's, (Hillarycare instead of Obamacare of course). 2010 is the same as in real life (except Sen. Barack Obama (R-IL) wins reelection, and Mark Kirk runs for governor, successfully). Obama, who delivered the keynote speech at the 2008 RNC is seen as a rising star in the Republican Party, representing the moderate wing (this Obama is a Huntsman-type moderate). He first won election to the Senate in 2004 by significantly outperforming Bush and defeating Carol Moseley Braun who unsuccessfully tried to return to her old seat. Obama was viewed as a charismatic and talented speaker with sharp intellect. He emerged as a leading Senate voice. Though sometimes at odds with the Republican leadership, moderates liked that he was willing to work with anyone, and was popular among single women, minorities and millennials, groups that the Republican Party hopes to make inroads with. (Another note, because Obama is a Republican in this TL, the GOP holds the Senate for the 110th Congress, but loses it in the 111th.) For the race for the Republican nomination, Huntsman drops out before Iowa and endorses Obama. Basically, Obama gets the nomination because the field is fractured badly. The NeverObama movement does not gain much ground, and Obama wins the nomination owing to a fractured field, and selects Jon Huntsman, Jr. as his running mate.
2012 Election:
Senator Barack Obama (R-IL)/Governor Jon Huntsman Jr. (R-UT): 305 EV
President Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Vice President Evan Bayh (D-IN): 233 EV
The Republicans become more inclusive, and move to the center while still holding on to more conservative voters in the west, while the Republican grip on Whites from the South starts to slip, potentially leading to a realignment. Republicans do unusually well with Mormons, who turn out in large numbers, Obama does better than Romeny did with college students and Blacks, while Clinton does (only slightly) better with Southern Whites, narrowly winning WV in an upset. Gov. Kirk appoints Bob Dold (who wins in 2012 in this scenario) to Obama's seat. What happens next? I don't know, something radically different. That's my take.
