Clinton vs Republican Obama 2012

[The Last Northerner]

Clinton wins both the Democrat primary and general election in a landslide in 2008. Her 2012 opponent is rising star Barack Obama, who won his Senate seat for the Republican Party in 2004. Who wins?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Assuming the Senate seat is still in Illinois, Obama probably has views similar to Rauner. I'd imagine Clinton vs. Rauner without the baggage as a very close election.

[Kingpoleon]

312: Barack Obama/Jon Huntsman, Jr. - 51.0%
226: Hillary Clinton/Birch "Evan" Bayh, III - 46.0%

Others - 3.0%

Obama improves the margins among Southern African Americans.

[RaphaelDLG]

How the hell does Rauner-Obama win the Republican Primary as a moderate, pro-choice candidate?  Is the conservative vote split between like 8 feckless candidates?

Also, do you think Obama still loses Illinois even though he won a Senate seat from there in '04?  I would imagine that there'd be significant northeast/west coast swing toward the Republicans and significant southern D swing, though maybe not enough to effect the map.

[Kingpoleon]

How the hell does Rauner-Obama win the Republican Primary as a moderate, pro-choice candidate?  Is the conservative vote split between like 8 feckless candidates?

Also, do you think Obama still loses Illinois even though he won a Senate seat from there in '04?  I would imagine that there'd be significant northeast/west coast swing toward the Republicans and significant southern D swing, though maybe not enough to effect the map.

Gingrich, Santorum, and Romney would all probably run.

What I think the primary map looks like:

Obama wins over independents, females, minorities, and 18-30, particularly 18-25, year olds in the primaries. Blue could probably be Romney. It could also be Leavitt or Huntsman with strong Romney backing.

[Boston Bread]

[Kingpoleon]

Is this the 2008 map?:

403: Hillary Clinton/Evan Bayh
135: Rick Santorum/Bobby Jindal

[President Johnson]

Senator Barack Obama (R-IL)/Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ): 281 EV. (50.07%)
President Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Vice President Richard Durbin (D-IL): 257 EV. (48.76%)

[Heisenberg]

This looks interesting, so I'm giving it a go. Here is 2008, same Republican nominee.

380: Hillary Clinton/Evan Bayh
158: John McCain/Sarah Palin
Governor Daniels appoints Dan Coats to his old seat after Bayh becomes VP. Clinton's first term is much like Obama's, (Hillarycare instead of Obamacare of course). 2010 is the same as in real life (except Sen. Barack Obama (R-IL) wins reelection, and Mark Kirk runs for governor, successfully). Obama, who delivered the keynote speech at the 2008 RNC is seen as a rising star in the Republican Party, representing the moderate wing (this Obama is a Huntsman-type moderate). He first won election to the Senate in 2004 by significantly outperforming Bush and defeating Carol Moseley Braun who unsuccessfully tried to return to her old seat. Obama was viewed as a charismatic and talented speaker with sharp intellect. He emerged as a leading Senate voice. Though sometimes at odds with the Republican leadership, moderates liked that he was willing to work with anyone, and was popular among single women, minorities and millennials, groups that the Republican Party hopes to make inroads with. (Another note, because Obama is a Republican in this TL, the GOP holds the Senate for the 110th Congress, but loses it in the 111th.) For the race for the Republican nomination, Huntsman drops out before Iowa and endorses Obama. Basically, Obama gets the nomination because the field is fractured badly. The NeverObama movement does not gain much ground, and Obama wins the nomination owing to a fractured field, and selects Jon Huntsman, Jr. as his running mate.
2012 Election:

Senator Barack Obama (R-IL)/Governor Jon Huntsman Jr. (R-UT): 305 EV
President Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Vice President Evan Bayh (D-IN): 233 EV

The Republicans become more inclusive, and move to the center while still holding on to more conservative voters in the west, while the Republican grip on Whites from the South starts to slip, potentially leading to a realignment. Republicans do unusually well with Mormons, who turn out in large numbers, Obama does better than Romeny did with college students and Blacks, while Clinton does (only slightly) better with Southern Whites, narrowly winning WV in an upset. Gov. Kirk appoints Bob Dold (who wins in 2012 in this scenario) to Obama's seat. What happens next? I don't know, something radically different. That's my take.

[swky_0rn]

Senator Barack Obama (R-IL)/Governor  Mitt romeny. (R-UT): 305 EV
President Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Vice President  John Kerry   (D-IN): 233 EV
 

[Devout Centrist]

This is more than a little preposterous, unless you think a pro choice, centrist Republican has a chance in their primary circa 2012.

[Mayflower1978]

Barack Obama/Lindsey Graham - 372 EV

Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine - 166 EV

[RC (a la Frémont)]

Barack Obama/Lindsey Graham - 372 EV

Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine - 166 EV

No. Please stop. This map is awful.

[Kingpoleon]

Barack Obama/Lindsey Graham - 372 EV

Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine - 166 EV

No. Please stop. This map is awful.

Racists + most partisan Democrats v. Real Americans?

[Sir Mohamed]

Given Obama’s charisma, I say he would have won the election.

✓ Senator Barack Obama (R-IL)/Governor Jon Huntsman (R-UT): 302 EVs.; 51.0%
President Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Vice President Evan Bayh (D-IN): 236 EVs.; 47.3%

[Mayflower1978]

Barack Obama/Lindsey Graham - 372 EV

Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine - 166 EV

No. Please stop. This map is awful.

Why?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Obama as gop would probably be a Romney who appeals to young voters

Obama/Romney 300
Clinton/Bayh 238

[Chips]

Sorry for the bump but this seemed interesting.

Barack Obama: 307 electoral votes
Hillary Clinton: 231 electoral votes

[Alben Barkley]

Obama as gop would probably be a Romney who appeals to young voters

Obama/Romney 300
Clinton/Bayh 238

I think the map likely is somewhere in-between these two.

Party alignments would be significantly different in this timeline. Hillary would keep most of the old Bill Clinton Democrats in Appalachia/the Upper South. Not nearly as heavy losses with WWC as in our timeline. Obama might face an electoral college disadvantage as a result, because Hillary holds on to states like AR/MO/WV in addition to most of the rust belt. And still is more popular in already heavily Democratic areas, though perhaps Obama could make in-roads into some of them, and hold on to states like VA: Presumably as a Republican, he would be quite moderate.

[Orwell]

How the hell does Rauner-Obama win the Republican Primary as a moderate, pro-choice candidate?  Is the conservative vote split between like 8 feckless candidates?

Also, do you think Obama still loses Illinois even though he won a Senate seat from there in '04?  I would imagine that there'd be significant northeast/west coast swing toward the Republicans and significant southern D swing, though maybe not enough to effect the map.

Gingrich, Santorum, and Romney would all probably run.

What I think the primary map looks like:

Obama wins over independents, females, minorities, and 18-30, particularly 18-25, year olds in the primaries. Blue could probably be Romney. It could also be Leavitt or Huntsman with strong Romney backing.

I doubt any strong Romney backing for Huntsman, Romney and Huntsman hate each other and have since the 2002 SLC Olympics.

[Agonized-Statism]

President Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Vice President Evan Bayh (D-IN) ✓
Senator Barack Obama (R-IL) / Senator John Cornyn (R-TX)

Obama is a marginally more charismatic Mitt Romney. He could challenge in Iowa/Virginia/Pennsylvania but chooses not to.

[NewYorkExpress]

African Americans may strongly support Obama, but they do like the Clintons too, and they probably don't like what the Republican Party has become by 2012.

Obama takes Illinois because of the home state effect, and does better than most non-Linda Lingle Republicans do in Hawaii, but because of the divided African American and a heavy White vote against him, he loses the entire South.

President Hillary Clinton/Vice President Joe Biden (D) 53% 442 EV
Senator Barack Obama/Former Governor Mike Huckabee (R) 43% 96 EV

There's probably a huge gap between the popular vote margin and the electoral vote margin.

[Alben Barkley]

African Americans may strongly support Obama, but they do like the Clintons too, and they probably don't like what the Republican Party has become by 2012.

Obama takes Illinois because of the home state effect, and does better than most non-Linda Lingle Republicans do in Hawaii, but because of the divided African American and a heavy White vote against him, he loses the entire South.

President Hillary Clinton/Vice President Joe Biden (D) 53% 442 EV
Senator Barack Obama/Former Governor Mike Huckabee (R) 43% 96 EV

There's probably a huge gap between the popular vote margin and the electoral vote margin.

Ehhhhh.... No.

Whites in the Deep South are willing to vote for black Republicans (see: Tim Scott) and I doubt in any timeline Obama would be like Herman Cain or Ben Carson or something; if he’s half as charismatic as the real Obama, and moderate as well, he WILL be able to attract a decent amount of black support. Whether that’s enough to win blacks outright or even win IL is another story. But I just don’t see Hillary sweeping the South or Illinois voting far to the right of Missouri and Ohio or anything like that. Plus, if you’re going that far, WV remaining R is almost comical; Hillary led it by double digits in 2008. If she is easily sweeping the rest of the region against Obama in 2012, why would she suddenly lose it? Republican IA is even more absurd.

[NewYorkExpress]

African Americans may strongly support Obama, but they do like the Clintons too, and they probably don't like what the Republican Party has become by 2012.

Obama takes Illinois because of the home state effect, and does better than most non-Linda Lingle Republicans do in Hawaii, but because of the divided African American and a heavy White vote against him, he loses the entire South.

President Hillary Clinton/Vice President Joe Biden (D) 53% 442 EV
Senator Barack Obama/Former Governor Mike Huckabee (R) 43% 96 EV

There's probably a huge gap between the popular vote margin and the electoral vote margin.

Ehhhhh.... No.

Whites in the Deep South are willing to vote for black Republicans (see: Tim Scott) and I doubt in any timeline Obama would be like Herman Cain or Ben Carson or something; if he’s half as charismatic as the real Obama, and moderate as well, he WILL be able to attract a decent amount of black support. Whether that’s enough to win blacks outright or even win IL is another story. But I just don’t see Hillary sweeping the South or Illinois voting far to the right of Missouri and Ohio or anything like that. Plus, if you’re going that far, WV remaining R is almost comical; Hillary led it by double digits in 2008. If she is easily sweeping the rest of the region against Obama in 2012, why would she suddenly lose it? Republican IA is even more absurd.

Obama picked someone who won his party's Iowa Caucuses. Hillary probably still lost her party's caucuses to Edwards in 2008.

West Virginia could be explained away by Hillary being anti-coal. I'd expect a high third party vote there, and Obama only wins with a plurality, but he still wins.

As for Illinois...It's his home state, and Hillary really hasn't been popular there in quite some time. It wouldn't be a stretch for him to win it, especially if he's popular as a Senator.

If the African American population, does unite around Obama (certainly possible, if unlikely given the Republican platform- I have doubts they'd do so with Tim Scott, too) Obama would sweep the South instead.

[Andrew Yang 2024]

Barack Obama/Kelly Ayotte 286
Hillary Clinton/Evan Bayh 252