Ann Kirkpatrick releases BRUTAL, SCATHING high energy anti-McCain ad

[Heisenberg]

Arizona may have only voted for a Democrat once since Truman, but it also is the only state with a disproportionately high number of Democrats in the House. Also, that Democrat, as noted was Clinton, not LBJ. Hillary could make good on AZ on Bill's name and heightened Latinx turnout against Trump. Will that be enough for coattails to Kirkpatrick? Who knows.

I personally wish Sinema had gone for it instead.

Sinema is a bisexual athiest. She'd be doing a lot worse. We're lucky she's doing so well in her own district.

Isn't she also the ConservaDem?

Lately she's been voting relatively moderate, though she has also voted with Democrats quite a bit, such as on Planned Parenthood funding, I believe.  And, in a House/Senate race, it's not easy to distance yourself from the national party.  And before elected to Congress, Sinema had a very liberal record in the state legislature, so she'd also be attacked for flip-flopping on some issues.  I also know she was a vocal critic of Israel in the past.  I think she is overrated as a "moderate", and her likelihood of winning statewide is too.  I cannot see her garnering many moderate/swing/crossover voters, and she would probably drive conservatives out to go vote against her.  If 2018 is a GOP wave, she will be a target.

[Heisenberg]

Kirkpatrick is also a moderate, and won in a much more conservative district than Sinema.

Correct.  Kirkpatrick (who is neither bisexual not atheist, By the way) has also been in the house for longer.  In 2008, despite Arizonan and former AZ-01 Congressman John McCain being the Republican nominee, and winning the district handily, Kirkpatrick managed to oust the district's Republican incumbent, so she has been able to attract crossover voters.  She did lose in 2010, due to the wave and a strong Republican recruit, Paul Gosar.  But in 2012, after the redistricting drew Gosar's home base into another district, Kirkpatrick won back her old seat, even as Romney won the district, while Gosar was elected to represent his new district, the fourth.  Sinema, meanwhile, was elected in a district that Obama won.  In 2014, Kirkpatrick was again reelected, despite another wave, and she seems to be popular.  If she can't win in 2016, with all the anti-Trump sentiment among Latinos, a presidential year bringing higher turnout (favoring Democrats), a contested GOP primary, and Kirkpatrick being the strongest democrat (IMO) for Arizona, and she still loses, then Arizona truly is fool's gold for the Democrats.  Ducey and Flake would be favored in 2018 unless it somehow becomes a wave for the Democrats.  While we're at it, have there been any polls for this race lately? (GOP primary and GE)

[Heisenberg]

Wait, why is Flake unpopular?

Maybe because he's relatively moderate, he's unpopular by the Arizona GOP?