Special Election megathread (6/11: OH-6, 6/25: CO-4)

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I want to believe, but idk.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

When will alaska dump the 33K ballots?

If Cinyc's tweets last week were accurately timestamped to the limited ballot drops, then probably around midnight est.

Eh, not necessarily. Their last dump was on 8/17 at 4pm Alaska time, which would be 8pm EST.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KO73UuSufdE

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Just let Forumlurker be Forumlurker, yall. We don't know what the final result will be.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Is it just illusion of the EV or is Pia severely overperforming in NY-23?

"Severely overperforming" is not a phrase my brain would have come up with.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1562270598604226560

Ulster County I am in awe

Edit: Apparently these are for the November election, but I am in awe nonetheless

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

A 20% gap in turnout between Columbia and Rensselaer does not pass the smell test.

Renss likely has some still left, but not sure why it's hard to believe. A lot of the red areas are only seeing 30%-ish turnout.

Delgado won the Rensselaer portion in 2020 and it borders Columbia. It's hard for me to believe it would have 24% of 2020 turnout while Columbia had 46%. I could be wrong though!

I mean, this is happening on the night of a weird, rescheduled primary after the gubernatorial primary has already happened. Unusual turnout swings could be more likely in that sort of environment.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

VICTORY!!!

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1562281725622829062?s=20&t=KUtiBCr...

Holy crap yall. I really was not expecting this at the start of the day, was hoping for maybe like a 5 point loss.

I don't know what November holds, but things right now look more competitive for overall House control than I had been assuming.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Honestly, perhaps the GOP needs some cold water splashed in its face.

Shut the f**k up about 2020. Do not advocate for total bans on abortion. Do not say you want Obergefell overturned.

The problem with that advice is that that's what the party mostly is.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Honestly, perhaps the GOP needs some cold water splashed in its face.

Shut the f**k up about 2020. Do not advocate for total bans on abortion. Do not say you want Obergefell overturned.

Molinaro did none of those things and he still lost

And he would have lost even worse if he had not.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

So right now Palin would need 64% of Begich voters' second preferences to overcome Peltola. That doesn't sound like a big lift.

HOWEVER that's assuming all Begich voters cast a second preference. If we assume say a quarter abstained, that means Palin would need his voters who do have a second preference to break about 70-30 for Palin/Peltola to overcome Peltola's lead. Also doesn't sound tough for a Republican but considering how unpopular Palin is with his voters... we'll see.

Given that this is the first election in Alaska with ranked choice, I wouldn't be surprised if we have more than 1/4 of ballots exhausted after the first choice.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I AM EUPHORIC