2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I can already feel this damn election taking a toll on my mental health.

Lovely. Exactly what I needed.

You and me both. It already was before the Dobbs decision actually managed to change things for the better, but I still can't get rid of the nagging dread that we're being misled into being optimistic again.

It especially doesn't help with today's round of polling where things actively look worse in Oregon, Pennsylvania (Senate, not so much the gubernatorial race), and Wisconsin. Which all might be explained by Republican ad blitzes going into very high gear, time shifting further away from the shock and consequences of the Dobbs decision in the summer, gas going up again in some areas, inflation remaining stubborn, and Democratic accomplishments during the summer leaving peoples' memories. I was worried that Democrats would peak too early, as always seems to be the case, and while I can't say this is happening for sure right now (perhaps it's just statistical noise) I am becoming paranoid about it.

Part of me just wants these damn elections to be over, but the other part of me dreads how they end up and would rather not know at all.

And yet this week we also got Hassan +9, Warnock +5, Kelly +6, Fetterman +7/10, and two tied NC-SEN polls. If people want to create a narrative about WI, where things actually seem to have shifted a bit, that's fine, but elsewhere there doesn't seem to be anything really going on.

Also, the idea that 2 months after Dobbs, people were still angry and voted, but 4 months - closer to the actual election - they're just like "meh" is just kind of ridiculous.

I know I'm probably being unreasonable but certain things are instigating that internal sense of dread I always have but had been quieted somewhat during the late summer. I hope you end up right about everything this year. I really do.

I mean, I get frustrated and doom too. But I'd rather be cautiously optimistic about some things than be pessimistic.

I think of the NY-19 election where close to nobody on this forum thought Pat Ryan would win. He was down in fundraising, down in the polls, everyone thought "oh Molinaro by 5" and then he came and won by nearly 3%. Not every election is like that, but we've seen concrete evidence this year is different, so the closer we get to the election, I'm supposed to believe that those Dem voters are just... going the opposite way in terms of motivation?

Hell, the fact that we're even talking about Dems and Reps being at the *SAME* intention/motivation to vote in most polls in a Biden midterm is crazy.

This is really the thing that frustrates me. I know for a fact that Dems have been overperforming everywhere for literally months now, but the logic that is beaten into us every day here is that *actually* we have to just assume the polls will be as far off as they were in 2020 or even worse, and if we do anything else, even if we still assume a mild Republican overperformance of only +1 or +2, then that means we're being completely unreasonable and are out of touch with *real America* or some s***, because in the secret reality that I can't see, the polling averages are really underestimating Republicans by like 5 points *everywhere* despite any actual evidence of that. And there's only so much of that that my brain can take before I'm just tempted to give in to the dooming even though there is a lot of clear evidence against doing so.

I don't mind people arguing that the polls are going to be catastrophically wrong, but when they do so with supreme confidence and with no real evidence to back it up - while also demanding that we ignore both the special elections and the reporting on partisan nonresponse would seem to be evidence against the polls being off - it just makes me feel like I'm losing my damn mind. Because clearly only a crazy person would believe evidence over gut feeling.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Whoever gave my that advice putting Olowakandi on IGNORE - many thanks from me

No worries, I’m (we’re?) glad it helped.

The supreme irony here is I have 2016 on ignore but not Olawakandi because at least Olawakandi is entertaining.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Morning Consult midterm tracker shows an.... un-collapse for Democrats

GCB at D+5, 49-44.

Was 48-44 last week

Democrats also retain a 4-pt edge on enthusiasm. 63% say they are enthusiastic, vs 59% for Rs

https://morningconsult.com/2022-midterm-elections-tracker/

Maybe this election won't change that much in the home stretch.

I don't know exactly what will happen, but I do think people tend to underrate the possibility for stability in a lot of races. The races that do see significant late shifts obviously grab more attention for understandable reasons, but a lot of elections tend to be fairly static.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

DDHQ moves NC-Sen to Toss-up:

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1577355589721653249

I don't know if I agree with this call or not, but wow that cash-on-hand advantage

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I mean, OK WA and IN are semi competitive apparently. What a weird cycle

None of them are actually competitive.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

About that American Greatness Poll:

18-39: GOP 48.2-41.6
40-64: GOP 46.7-43.9
65+: DEM 49.7-43.5

sure.jan

Somehow managing to get the age dynamic of American politics completely backwards is almost kind of impressive.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1577348356388560896

This will not stop Nate Cohn from writing another piece claiming people are ignoring the 2020 polling error.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/aaronblake/status/1577664253196115975

.... PA nowhere to be seen on here but CO and WA mentioned? lol

Pennsylvania isn't a pickup opportunity, they already hold the seat. They're trying not to lose it.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Check out RCP's new "projection" methodology. This is just sad bruh. I got a particular kick out of the fact that there was no possible way for them to cook/unskew the numbers enough to get Walker ahead so they just arbitrarily decided that he would win lol.

Most of this isn't completely ridiculous - it's not exactly how I'm looking at things, but trying to account for prior polling error isn't the worst idea - but the Georgia s*** is just flat-out partisan hackery.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The more I think about this chart, the worse it gets. Are you comparing an equal number of polls from different polling firms in your averages? Is one of them full of Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage when it WASN’T in 2016 or 2020? We have basically nothing from Quinnipiac, Siena, or PPP this cycle — if you think those were too Dem-leaning before, then they’ll inevitably have an effect on underestimations.

 This is a ridiculous thing for any reputable site to do.

This is a very important point. Far fewer flagrant Dem outliers this year, and the ones we have been seeing - Center Street and the like - aren't even being included in RCP's average anyway.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Idk if this is the right thread to make this observation, but does anyone else feel like we really hit a brick wall with the state polling in the last week or so? Like there's been next to nothing coming out, even from the garbage pollsters.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

GCB showing Rs up again in RCP. I TOLD YOU ALL THIS WOULD BE 2014.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The CBS.YouGov poll is 73% age 45 and over (2018 exits were 65%) and 42% conservative (2018 was 36%).

I just looked back to 2014, and even then, 45 and older was about 65% too. 73% would be a total collapse of the young/millennial vote. Like *super* collapse.

Which means if Rs are only +2 in that scenario, not a great look for them.

There could be other factors that end up cancelling the age balance out, but yeah, not a sign of a major Republican wave, at minimum.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://www.axios.com/2022/10/16/blue-state-democrats-midterms-oregon

The GOP gaslighting continues. Does anyone really think NY-17 is in play after NY-19 this summer? I guess if the R+8 pollster in NY-19 did a poll here they can show it a dead heat.

I don't know what will happen but there's a significant chance GOP will waste a lot of money in seats they lose by 9%. Kraushaar thinks Dobbs can't matter in a blue state with abortion rights protected, look at MN-1 as well on this.

Also, some of these college graduates who were 20-24 years old when Obama won in 2008 are now entering their mid to late 30s and becoming high propensity voters for Ds.

You are about this be proven so wrong it will be glorious.

Can you at least be less obviously gleeful about the possibility of impending doom that you believe to be a certainty? Even if you are right you should be horrified by that prospect.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Average the polls out people, this isn't hard.

I think it's more likely than not that Democrats at least somewhat underperform their polling this year, given how polling has been the last few cycles, but the chaotic swings of individual polls are just 100% not worth focusing on.

FWIW, the generic ballot polling was pretty good in two out of the last three cycles. 538 had a D+8.6 final average in 2018, and the final margin was exactly that, D+8.6. In 2016, it was a bit worse, D+1.2 vs a final margin of R+1.1, for an error of D+2.3. 2020 was significantly worse, a 538 had D+7.3 vs a final margin of D+3.1, for an error of D+4.2. Average those three cycles out, and the polls, on average, have been off by about 2.2 points in favor of Democrats. That's not all that bad, all things considered, certainly not compared to some of the consistent state-level polling misses in places like Ohio.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Average the polls out people, this isn't hard.

I think it's more likely than not that Democrats at least somewhat underperform their polling this year, given how polling has been the last few cycles, but the chaotic swings of individual polls are just 100% not worth focusing on.

FWIW, the generic ballot polling was pretty good in two out of the last three cycles. 538 had a D+8.6 final average in 2018, and the final margin was exactly that, D+8.6. In 2016, it was a bit worse, D+1.2 vs a final margin of R+1.1, for an error of D+2.3. 2020 was significantly worse, a 538 had D+7.3 vs a final margin of D+3.1, for an error of D+4.2. Average those three cycles out, and the polls, on average, have been off by about 2.2 points in favor of Democrats. That's not all that bad, all things considered, certainly not compared to some of the consistent state-level polling misses in places like Ohio.

I think it's also harder to model the GCB when it's attached to a Presidential election, since I feel like those two things happening at the same time can start affecting each other. Would not be surprised if polling is not as bad, similar to 2018, since it's not attached to a Prez race.

Hard to say, but given that the general consensus is that polling has gotten meaningfully worse only starting in the 2016 cycle, that would leave us with a sample size of exactly one midterm, which does not inspire confidence.

If we don't go with the assumption that pre-2016 polling is meaningless, then we have a better sample to look at. Unfortunately I can't find a 538 generic ballot average for 2014, but Huffington Post and RCP - not ideal sources, but eh, best that exists for that era - both had the polls that year around R+2.3, vs a final result of R+5.7, which would be an overestimation of Democratic support of 3.4 points. Going back to 2010, RCP had a generic ballot of R+9.4, vs a final margin of R+6.8, for an overestimation of *Republican* support by 2.6 points. In 2006, RCP had a final polling margin of D+11.5 vs a final margin of D+7.9, for an overestimation of Dem support by 3.6 points. Averaging all of that together with 2018 yields an average D overestimation of 1.1 points.

Idk what the exact right approach is. All I know is I am getting absolutely exhausted with certain people on here who have made it their entire personality to not merely insist that the polls will be historically wrong this year, but who are downright gleeful at that prospect despite ostensibly believing that a Republican takeover of Congress would be bad for the country. I can tolerate the Republicans who want the polls to be off because they want Republican government, and I can tolerate the genuinely depressed Democrats who are convinced that everything will go wrong and are on the verge of a mental breakdown because they are panicked about the future of the country, but it's the cognitive dissonance of those who say "America is doomed if Republicans win but hey it'll be awesome for me because at least I was right on an internet forum, and that's what *really* matters" that just grinds my gears into dust.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Anyways remember when I said this would be 2014? Well I continue to be right on this.

What you continue to be is convinced you're right before the event has happened.  Maybe you are and maybe you aren't.  But you don't need to keep repeating it; you've grown extremely tiresome with it.

More tiresome than probably all of the other doomers combined, and more openly gleeful about it.

MillennialModerate is at least somewhat restrained in the pessimism. SnowLabrador is more extreme but at least seems horrified. ForumLurker is in an entirely different category.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I'm just going to lay this out in advance now if things do go catastrophically: if Dems lose both the House and the Senate this November, then the entire leadership needs to be purged. Pelosi, Hoyer, Schumer, Biden, Harris, Durbin, all of them. Burn it to the ground and start over, because everything that we think we know about politics is probably wrong anyway, and the option that would have been considered electoral suicide in any other scenario might actually be the only way to save the country. If the public can't recognize the threat the Republicans present because the present Dem leadership is too incompetent to portray it correctly, then we need to find literally anyone else who can get the point across.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I'm just going to lay this out in advance now if things do go catastrophically: if Dems lose both the House and the Senate this November, then the entire leadership needs to be purged. Pelosi, Hoyer, Schumer, Biden, Harris, Durbin, all of them. Burn it to the ground and start over, because everything that we think we know about politics is probably wrong anyway, and the option that would have been considered electoral suicide in any other scenario might actually be the only way to save the country. If the public can't recognize the threat the Republicans present because the present Dem leadership is too incompetent to portray it correctly, then we need to find literally anyone else who can get the point across.

Maybe this is unpopular or controversial to say, I would not just blame it on Democratic leadership but on voters themselves. Maybe they deserve it then? You don't need Biden or Schumer to tell you about the danger most Republican candidates running pose. A person who intends to vote should be capable of informing themselves and think about it.

Well, yeah, obviously it would be on the voters as well, but we don't have the option to change them.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

One thing different from last year is the Dems have not completely cratered with independents and even led in Fox News, CBS Battleground (but not Siena).

The warning signs with independents were there in VA:

https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2021/10/Fox_October-24-27_Virginia_Topline_October-28-Release.pdf

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ne6DjNT-3vLGgPHEd-dvFjDF3ouU7Xdyo_p4bpyPSv8/edit#gid=0

This year you don't really see these splits and in some cases (especially GA, AZ) you see Dems winning indies outright.

RCP also made the "certain to vote" crowd their number for the Harris and Fox News poll. Their mission is to gaslight and create the narrative this thing is over.

I still have the Senate tilting Democratic, and agree that RCP are hacks who should mostly be ignored. Still, feeling more nervous than I was a week or two ago.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Okay, I give up, we're doomed.

Give up on the House. Maybe a 5% chance Dems hold it the way things are going now.

Try to save the Senate, but honestly that's probably Tilt Republican by now.

Ditch Biden in 2024, the public has given up on him.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Okay, I give up, we're doomed.

Give up on the House. Maybe a 5% chance Dems hold it the way things are going now.

Try to save the Senate, but honestly that's probably Tilt Republican by now.

Ditch Biden in 2024, the public has given up on him.

Sure ditch Biden. Harris will lose by more.

Read my username.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Okay, I give up, we're doomed.

Give up on the House. Maybe a 5% chance Dems hold it the way things are going now.

Try to save the Senate, but honestly that's probably Tilt Republican by now.

Ditch Biden in 2024, the public has given up on him.

Maybe a slight overreaction..

I'm not sure why people expected this midterm to suddenly buck historical norms when Biden has negative approval...

2024 is a entirely different election given the strength of presidential incumbency.

He's done. If this party can't convince voters that democracy itself is more important than temporary swings in the price of gas then they are beyond useless.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Okay, I give up, we're doomed.

Give up on the House. Maybe a 5% chance Dems hold it the way things are going now.

Try to save the Senate, but honestly that's probably Tilt Republican by now.

Ditch Biden in 2024, the public has given up on him.

Maybe a slight overreaction..

I'm not sure why people expected this midterm to suddenly buck historical norms when Biden has negative approval...

2024 is a entirely different election given the strength of presidential incumbency.

He's done. If this party can't convince voters that democracy itself is more important than temporary swings in the price of gas then they are beyond useless.

Basic cost of living issues are always going to trump hyperbolic statements about democracy being in terminal decline, or whatever..

Most people don't care.

138 House Republicans voted to nullify MY VOTE.

THROW IT OUT. DESTROY IT. TAKE AWAY MY RIGHTS.

THAT IS A THREAT TO DEMOCRACY BY ANY SANE MEASURE.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

House was never in play for Democrats. In this environment with this slim majority, always a zero chance of retaining the House.

If this party wasn't run entirely by seventy and eighty year olds who the public sees as wildly out of touch there would have been at least a somewhat realistic chance.