AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel (user search)
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  AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel (search mode)
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Author Topic: AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel  (Read 45918 times)
Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« on: August 22, 2022, 11:30:47 PM »

No, Arizona will not be Likely D. Anyone who thinks that will be coping hard on election night.


I've learned the hard way that characterizing any competitive race as Likely two and a half months out is a bad idea. Even two weeks out can be risky.

That being said, I *could* see this as Likely D by election day, but I'll need a lot of strong evidence before I make that sort of call. Personally I don't expect to classify it as anything more than Lean D.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #1 on: August 26, 2022, 05:19:48 PM »

I feel like all I ever see is the GOP pulling spending from competitive races. Are they actually spending money anywhere? Where's it all going?

Fwiw Oz actually has ads up on the air in Pennsylvania for the first time since the primary.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2022, 07:26:39 PM »

I feel like all I ever see is the GOP pulling spending from competitive races. Are they actually spending money anywhere? Where's it all going?

Fwiw Oz actually has ads up on the air in Pennsylvania for the first time since the primary.

Those are still mostly CLF ads lol. Oz is still broke himself.

There's a fair bit of CLF, but I've seen several from Oz's actual campaign in the last like two or three days. Not sure how long he'll be able to stay on the air, but he does have some up.

I'll also say his ads don't seem especially compelling. Not garbage, but nothing anyone will remember either.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #3 on: August 26, 2022, 07:46:39 PM »

I feel like all I ever see is the GOP pulling spending from competitive races. Are they actually spending money anywhere? Where's it all going?

Fwiw Oz actually has ads up on the air in Pennsylvania for the first time since the primary.

Those are still mostly CLF ads lol. Oz is still broke himself.

There's a fair bit of CLF, but I've seen several from Oz's actual campaign in the last like two or three days. Not sure how long he'll be able to stay on the air, but he does have some up.

I'll also say his ads don't seem especially compelling. Not garbage, but nothing anyone will remember either.

What type of combo of Shaprio/Fetterman/Oz ads have you noticed recently yourself?

From what I can tell, Shapiro has been consistent for the most part for a while. Fetterman seemed to be hitting the ads hard a few weeks ago but it feels like Oz/CLF have taken over the last week or two. I'm not a big cable watcher though so I'm inconsistent on that front.

In my area I feel like it's been a pretty even balance in ads between the Oz side and the Fetterman side lately. Maybe slightly more Oz, but a little hard to say. Both running a lot of contrast ads, not as much strictly negative or positive, though on balance probably more negative in the Oz/CLF ads.

Shapiro's ads have been running frequently for a while, very little from the pro-Mastriano side, and I want to say not any from Mastriano's own campaign. Both going heavily into the attack stuff by this point. Anti-Shapiro ads have been very generic anti-Dem criticisms (taxes, crime, etc), anti-Mastriano ads have been highly specific on Gab, January 6th, abortion.

I don't watch a ton of television, mostly just the evening news, so I can't speak to how widespread they are outside of that time slot, but they've been running a lot during that time period.
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