UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

It really is amazing just how quickly this is all falling apart for Johnson. I knew his continued time as PM was dependent on support from a number of members that was not very deeply-held, but I didn't think it would all collapse in just a handful of days.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Assuming that the rules are changed and that Johnson does lose a VONC next week (although, at this point, I'm not 100% confident that the party won't bottle it yet again), the rule that leaders can't be challenged again for one calendar year after winning a one needs to be scrapped ASAP. Sure, a threshold of letters for a challenge is probably a necessity, but the one year rule has created a truly ludicrous situation.

At this point I'd also have to say that the careers of anyone who remains in cabinet after this point must be toast. The Johnson loyalists apart, you can't announce that you have no confidence in the PM, tell that to his face, then back down and announce that you support him just because he ing says 'no - piss off'. This is possibly the only parliamentary democracy in the world where the politicians could be that weak and spineless in dealing with a failed leader. You can't imagine them sh*tting the bed this badly in an Australian political party.

Johnson is trying to make this argument that the Conservative victory in 2019 resulted in a governing mandate not for the party but for him as an individual, which really is totally contrary to the central premise of parliamentary democracy, and it's extraordinary how many are somehow willing to go along with that reasoning.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Assuming that the rules are changed and that Johnson does lose a VONC next week (although, at this point, I'm not 100% confident that the party won't bottle it yet again), the rule that leaders can't be challenged again for one calendar year after winning a one needs to be scrapped ASAP. Sure, a threshold of letters for a challenge is probably a necessity, but the one year rule has created a truly ludicrous situation.

At this point I'd also have to say that the careers of anyone who remains in cabinet after this point must be toast. The Johnson loyalists apart, you can't announce that you have no confidence in the PM, tell that to his face, then back down and announce that you support him just because he ing says 'no - piss off'. This is possibly the only parliamentary democracy in the world where the politicians could be that weak and spineless in dealing with a failed leader. You can't imagine them sh*tting the bed this badly in an Australian party.

Yeah, I'm especially curious about what the endgame of Zahawi is. Sure, it's an amusing bit of Machiavellian tactics, but surely all he'll get out of it is like a position in pub trivia nights (who was the shortest serving Chancellor?)

Edward Law, 1st Baron Ellenborough: interim Chancellor from January 23rd to February 5th, 1806.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/MrMKimber/status/1544799547658047489?s=20&t=Py8CQRNhOzBW...

"It's just a flesh wound!"

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

A lot of these people were waiting for Johnson to fall. They never saw him as one of their own.

Although, BJ could survive. You can't have a confidence vote for another year.

A rule-change appears imminent (at latest following next week’s election to the 1922 Committee Executive, possibly earlier), and a government this crippled cannot survive. Two examples of this:

• Tomorrow morning, the Attorney General is to answer questions in the Commons. The PM has to either sack Suella Braverman, or let a woman who has openly lost confidence in him (and publicly declared an intent to take his job!) give answers on behalf of his government.
• Only 2 out of the 6 ministerial roles in the Department of Education are currently filled. Amidst exam marking season, the recent threat of industrial action, and anger over the state of the government’s stalled reform bill, that’s just not sustainable.

Even if this was a coordinated plot to replace Johnson that he’s trying to tell us it is, he has no power, or technically the right, to stop it if he’s lost the support of the party. We’re a parliamentary system, not a presidential one with a direct electoral mandate for the head of government.

Johnson’s mandate is indirect, and comes from the support of his MPs, who each individually draw their mandate from their constituency electorate. Once your MPs withdraw their support (typically on the basis of political pressure from those same constituents), it doesn’t matter how many voters wanted to “get Brexit down”, it’s over.

But wasn’t Johnson elected leader directly from the electorate?

And I would argue his 2019 general election was a mandate. Ever single conservative voter knew a vote for their local conservative MP was a vote to have Boris Johnson as PM. Elections are nationalized. The idea that you can be a successful PM without an electorate mandate and rely solely on elected officials in your party is silly.

Please learn literally anything about the history of British elections and government. Prime Ministers being forced from office by internal opposition from their own party MPs is a routine occurrence. Johnson himself literally got the leadership of the Tories because May had to resign under the threat of no-confidence votes by the party.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Starmer to table VONC in the Commons.

Does the UK system allow for there to be a window for an alternate PM appointed if they can command a majority of the Chamber, or does this instantly trigger a GE? It differs by country, and if the latter, then it wouldn't be unimaginable for the Tories to chuck Boris out and put up a new caretaker they expect to command their caucus.

There’s scope for an alternative PM to be appointed in the aftermath of a loss of confidence in the Government - such an occasion arose in both 1895, and January 1924. Conventionally, the new administration came from other parties though, and no party with a working Commons majority has lost a confidence vote since that occasion in 1895.

Two other Votes of No Confidence have passed in the Commons since 1895, in December 1924, and 1979. Both of those led directly to a dissolution of Parliament and a snap election.

There were more confidence votes before 1895, but the system, and the electorate were very different then, and don’t make great comparisons, especially given the party system was a lot more flexible back then.

From the Commons Library: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02873/

I know party discipline is traditionally much stronger in the UK than in the US, and so there is reason to believe Johnson could manage to survive a confidence vote on the floor of the Commons even though he plainly couldn't survive an intra-party vote - and then also factoring in Johnson holding out the threat of asking the Queen for new elections if the Commons votes against him and having the Tory majority voted out - but if it turns out he can't fill all of the ministerial positions even while serving in a caretaker capacity and the government essentially ceases to function, that does seem like a situation that could lead to widespread defections.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1546523365896327168

That is not a small number

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Also notably, PMQs is anarchic - it's 4 minutes past schedule, and the Speaker can't even get the House quiet enough to have the first question asked. Both Alba Party MPs had to be forcibly removed from the Chamber by the Sergeant at Arms.

I could watch it all day. lol
https://twitter.com/OxfordDiplomat/status/1547183722151157760

I have far more respect for this than I have for the American Congress, where it's rare to see any speech given before a chamber less than 90% empty.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Away from the Tory clown car, it looks like we're in for a nasty heatwave, with the UK record temperature likely to be broken on Monday or Tuesday with 40C forecast to be recorded for the first time; in fact I wouldn't be surprised if the record (38.7C in Cambridge just three years ago) is broken on Monday and the new record is then beaten on Tuesday.

I was in Cambridge at the time and it took about four hours to get home, because it was so hot that the overhead wires on the train line started to melt. That was annoying, but under circumstances where every ambulance trust in the country is experiencing huge delays in getting patients admitted into hospital due to lack of beds, next week could be absolutely catastrophic.

Am I correct in thinking that most homes in the UK don't have air conditioning?

Air conditioning is pretty uncommon in the UK, though it is getting less so over time, as I understand it.

I have a friend there who just moved to a new house today, as luck would have it, I should ask if she has air conditioning now or not. I'm fairly certain her old house didn't.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

So the top 2 choices for PM are Truss & Sunak? Wow, the UK is in an even worse shape than I thought.

Horrible choices.

Yikes. I think Penny would’ve been formidable in the next election.

And Sunak will almost certainly be the next PM. Electability argument will spook some hard right voters away from Truss.

Beautiful, thank you Britain!

https://twitter.com/oprosuk/status/1549698310113755137?s=21

https://twitter.com/oprosuk/status/1549697979602305024?s=21

Sadly - it take enormous margins like this to get a half decent Labour majority because of Scotlands silly SNP fetish. And even more sad is I can’t see these margins holding till the next election

A Labour-SNP coalition is fine!