State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Which CD is this district in?

Partly the 1st, partly the 4th

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/cjandringa/status/983890800995110912

Freese leading in the absentees in Story County

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Freese WINS Story county 56-44: http://www.storycountyiowa.gov/DocumentCenter/View/8228

But, she only nets 300 votes.

Yeah, this looks done. That isn't enough of a margin for Freese to win the district. Should still be a significant shift from 2016.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Considering Democrats only gained the 114th in Florida in 2016 by a narrow margin at the same time that Trump was massively underperforming there, it would not particularly surprise me if they don't hold on to this one tonight. Unless either candidate wins in a landslide, I doubt it will tell us much of anything about the congressional elections in South Florida, given that Trump is absolutely going to be a factor in those races.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Republican is up 52%-45% in FL-HD-114.

Looks like this is probably all from the absentee/early vote, based on the totals.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Vargas (R) has won. Still waiting for election day vote, but Democrats can't make up 900 votes in it. At least a 15 point swing right and a demoralizing and humiliating loss for Democrats.

You are insufferable.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Vargas (R) has won. Still waiting for election day vote, but Democrats can't make up 900 votes in it. At least a 15 point swing right and a demoralizing and humiliating loss for Democrats.

You are insufferable.

Nothing I wrote in that blurb is wrong. The blue wave isn't dead. But it's still a bad loss for Florida democrats, and really casts doubt on the ability to topple Carlos Curbelo.

Nothing I wrote is wrong either.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Fernandez leading 8,433 to 7,747

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Miami-Dade updated!!!

Fernandez (D) 50.84% 8433
Vargas (R) 46.70% 7747

Dem's are going to win this by a larger margin than the 2016 State House race, it looks like.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Vargas (R) has won. Still waiting for election day vote, but Democrats can't make up 900 votes in it. At least a 15 point swing right and a demoralizing and humiliating loss for Democrats.

A dEmOrAlIzInG aNd HuMiLiAtInG lOsS fOr DeMoCrAtS!

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

We have final results in the non-competitive seat now:

Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Josie Tomkow   
REP   9,891   
59.88%
Ricky Shirah   
DEM   6,628   
40.12%
Total    16,519

Better than the 2016 result for the state legislature there, at least.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

True, I would’ve liked to expand Clinton’s margin here, but it shows that indepdents are strongly on our side for November. Plus, look at the Election Day voting: 13-point advantage for Dems. Great news for us in states like PA that don’t have early in-person voting.

These Cuban districts are still strongly Republican downballot. These wins by Democrats are nothing to sneeze at.

Yep, and candidates in state legislative races can credibly try to make these elections not about Trump. That's far less likely to work in the Congressional elections.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Maybe I'm missing something, but the precinct map on the county elections website seems utterly incoherent. Like, it doesn't look even remotely contiguous: http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/FL/Dade/75016/196174/en/pr_zoom.html

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Any Floridians wanna explain what's going on around West Miami? Swingy in 2016 and a return to form in 2018. Why did it trend opposite of the rest of the state (and most of the rest of the country, lol) from 16 to 18? Was there just something really odd about one of the candidates in 2016?

Something, something, Cuban voters.