Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Virginiá]

It would be wise for Ukraine to play a cat-and-mouse game and force them to defend their entire gas export and exploitation apparatus. They're getting more adept at defending refineries. Let them try to defend other sections of it... If and when the time comes anyhow.

Not too surprising if true. These are huge facilities and a couple drones hitting the right spots can cause a lot of disruption, but if you want to take the entire plant offline for an extended period, that is something you would want to use a large number of missiles or airstrikes for.

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1782543389897936936


Also:

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/22/ukraine-package-armored-vehicles-00153672

Defense Department officials are still putting the finishing touches on the potential new tranche, but they want it to be ready to go soon after President Joe Biden signs off on a bill to provide tens of billions of dollars in additional aid for Kyiv, said the officials, who along with others were granted anonymity to speak ahead of an announcement. The Senate is expected to pass the legislation as early as Tuesday, sending it to Biden’s desk.

The package DOD is working on now will be significantly larger than the most recent tranche of $300 million, said one of the U.S. officials, along with a third U.S. official with knowledge of the discussions. The first two U.S. officials said it would include armored vehicles; a fourth person said additional Bradley Fighting Vehicles would be part of the shipment. Older Humvees and M113 armored personnel carriers, as well as missiles, are also expected to be in the package, one of the U.S. officials said.

[Virginiá]

I think far eastern Ukraine they've silently written off for most of a decade. Crimea, being removed from the Sea of Azov, and some of the Black Sea coastline they've lost is more valuable, but they still have Odessa at least.

Even liberating Southern Ukraine west of Berdyansk would be a major improvement. This makes it marginally more difficult for Russia to harass Ukrainian maritime trade and would give Ukraine some influence in the Sea of Azov. It also allows Ukraine to complicate Russia's long-term presence in Crimea. It's a lever of pressure they desperately need going into the future. I'm not sure they can achieve this anymore, but that should probably be their primary goal for the rest of the war (unless something happens that makes full liberation a reality).

[Virginiá]

https://x.com/archer83able/status/1782797318799970346?s=46&t=ZHeS7rMUpmBPthnMp_vXgQ
👀

I imagine we're going to see a smorgasbord of aid packages over the next couple months, particularly with USAI funds.

[Virginiá]

we're so back

[Virginiá]

Still no more ATACMS? That's disappointing.

Probably included in the "additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS)" line. These announcements have gotten more opaque over time. They didn't specifically list the M39 cluster bomb ATACMS variant they sent to Ukraine in the past either, iirc.

[Virginiá]

ATACMS strike from the other day wipes out entire S-400 battery in Donetsk (Russian AD not having a great time lately)

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1793891915727073694

Ukrainian drones damaged Russia's ballistic missile early warning system in Southern Russia

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1793948850274930996

Couple Russian fighter jets damaged at air base on May 19

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1793970057493561435

[Virginiá]

Finally:

""The Biden administration has quietly given Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia — solely near the area of Kharkiv — using U.S.-provided weapons"

“'The president recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use U.S. weapons for counter-fire purposes in Kharkiv so Ukraine can hit back at Russian forces hitting them or preparing to hit them,' a U.S. official confirmed," @ErinBanco
 
https://politico.com/news/2024/05/30/biden-ukraine-weapons-strike-russia-00160731"

This is something but it's way narrower than Ukraine can make use of. The bare minimum here is the ability to hit military targets 50 - 60km from the border inside Russia. Otherwise, Russia is going to continue staging forces and weapons all along the border and using them against Ukraine. What is to stop them from invading Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts again? By these rules, Ukraine would have to just sit there, watching them assemble on the Russian side, just like Kharkiv. It's nuts.

/rant

[Virginiá]

With the precedent now set for Ukraine being able to strike on internationally recognized Russian territory, I think it's only a matter of time before any further guardrails (short of like, hitting the Kremlin or something) get tossed out as the useless relics they are. Once the fears of "escalation" are again proven wrong, every subsequent step becomes easier. I don't think Ukraine is going to be fighting with its hands tied for long.

Given the way the Biden admin has currently been operating, which has been to incrementally lift their restrictions to manage escalation, they'll probably eventually allow Ukraine to hit targets across the entire Russian border.

But the reason it's frustrating (to me, anyway) is because while this might manage fears of escalation for the administration, it also gives Russia plenty of time to adapt. For example, right now, they have been observed putting up hangars on their airfields across Western Russia, as their planes were previously exposed and vulnerable to cluster bomb strikes. Now it won't be easy for Ukraine to hit their airfields, if they are ever given that ability. They'll need far more missiles to do what a few cluster missiles could have done.

A smaller, less resourced country like Ukraine needs all the advantages it can get, and a staple of warfare is to take advantage of vulnerabilities before the enemy can react & adapt. Unfortunately for Ukraine, the allies' method of managing escalation strips away nearly every opportunity to exploit vulnerabilities by signaling to Russia what is going on and letting them adapt.