Virginia HoD Redraw Thread - SCOTUS will not stop map drawing

[Virginiá]

If Democrats take over and they still really want to do a commission of sorts, they can do a lot better than the proposed commission posted above. That commission seems to have a backdoor for Republicans to get their plans implemented for the 2020s via a favorable state Supreme Court.

Any commission that is implemented should never allow Republicans to craft their own plan and get it into a situation where there is a 50/50 shot it is picked. That is bonkers!

[Virginiá]

Yeah, good point Nyvin. Although like you were kind of getting at, it's not guaranteed forever. It could actually turn into a Dem-favoring system in the future, assuming Republicans are unable to continue electing partisan justices with impunity in the 2020s due to the difficulty in locking in a majority with a shrinking base of voters.

Anyway, I'm still not convinced VA Democrats will pass any kind of commission. All it takes is one chamber of the legislature to decide they don't want to do that, and this issue isn't exactly something that will drive a ton of effort on the part of Democratic lawmakers.

[Virginiá]

Usually in states with commissions if they fail to agree to a plan it usually ends up in the courts hands. I don't think its nefarious or anything but there aren't many non-partisan options when a commission fails.

True, but this is more of a concern for "bipartisan" commissions, particularly ones where each side crafts their own gerrymandered map (as rigged as they can get it within the rules, at least). It'd be different if the judges themselves brought on an objective special master who proceeds to draw an actual fair map, vs choosing from one of two partisan maps. Things usually work out fairly when judges have to redraw it themselves.

I don't even know why they are putting together reform working groups anyway. This isn't a complicated problem, and it's already been solved more or less in both in theory and in practice. This proposal just shows that despite lawmakers constant attempts to minimize the importance of redistricting, it is incredibly important to them and something they just can't let go of, no matter what the situation is. It usually has to be ripped from their cold, greedy hands by voter initiative.

[Virginiá]

Virginia Republicans have proposed a map apparently:

‘Race-blind’ Va. political map offered to replace one deemed racial gerrymander

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/race-blind-va-political-map-offered-to-replace-one-deemed-racial-gerrymander/2018/09/18/0c46b492-bb70-11e8-a8aa-860695e7f3fc_story.html

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http://redistricting.dls.virginia.gov/2010/RedistrictingPlans.aspx#43



This goes into it a little more:

https://pilotonline.com/news/government/politics/virginia/article_deaaffc6-bb8c-11e8-97e2-bfa3d1443d78.html

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I'll leave it someone else to investigate more, but based on the quoted text, it seems like they are trying to use this redraw as an opportunity to shore up vulnerable incumbents ahead of 2019's election.

[Virginiá]

You have got to be f'ing kidding me:

Va. House GOP introducing new redistricting plan with some Democratic support

https://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/exclusive-va-house-gop-introducing-new-redistricting-plan-with-some/article_22b9f4ec-dd94-54bf-8f55-d7bd793890ee.html

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The entire reason Democrats do not control the HoD right now is because greedy lawmakers agreed to a bipartisan gerrymander where Republicans got to run wild with their own HoD map in exchange for a flimsy state Senate Dem gerrymander. Now is not the time to do another phony "bipartisan" incumbent protection map. Force the court to draw one and it'll almost definitely be better for Democrats in 2019, where they can flip the House of Delegates. Northam should refuse to sign any bipartisan incumbent protection map. Democrats are the rising force in Virginia, and they hold all the cards right now. Agreeing to such a Republican scheme is weak, stupid and goes against the wishes of the thousands of activists and voters who gave life to so many Democratic delegates in 2017.

And lol @ Republicans demanding a new map not advantage any side over the other. The entire reason for their racial gerrymandering was to advantage their party, so any remedial map by definition must advantage Democrats.

At any rate, even if somehow a selfish incumbent protection map is passed, Democrats can probably still flip the HoD in 2019, so long as 2019 target seats are not made more Republican.

[Virginiá]

Yea, I mean, it's far from a given right now, but I always get antsy when this sort of things starts to take shape, especially since Democrats already did it once before, not to mention other state examples, like New York.

I think it's probably unlikely that enough would support a veto override, especially if Northam comes out strongly against it, but we'll see. This may end up amounting to nothing in the end. Hopefully.

[Virginiá]

Yea, I mean, it's far from a given right now, but I always get antsy when this sort of things starts to take shape, especially since Democrats already did it once before, not to mention other state examples, like New York.

I think it's probably unlikely that enough would support a veto override, especially if Northam comes out strongly against it, but we'll see. This may end up amounting to nothing in the end. Hopefully.

Interestingly this map uses the Democrat's map as the base. I think I read 7-8 of the effected 11 seats come directly from the Democratic proposed map. So many times politicians care more protecting their incumbency than even gerrymandering against the other party or especially a fair map. Still hopes Northam chooses to veto anything that comes out of the legislature and not read this as "bipartisan."

It's also pointless for Democrats to do this because almost all the seats they won are not at a high risk of flipping back in 2019. Virginia is likely to get hit with another wave and that will easily protect Democratic incumbents. Although I guess to some of these people, they won't be satisfied unless they get themselves a double-digit Clinton seat or better.

Frankly, the Democrats delegates who have expressed even a small amount of support for this scheme should be primaried regardless if they end up pulling their support or not, just to make an example of them.

[Virginiá]

For states that do off year elections like VA , can they do ballot measures in the state elections? Putting independent redistricting on the ballot for next fall could be a smart move. I honestly think any D gubernatorial candidate between now and '20 should be hammering the hell out of running on independent redistricing. Especially Edwards and Cooper.

The next gubernatorial campaign isn't until 2021, so it would be up to Northam. He said he wanted an independent commission, but we'll have to see what Democrats in the legislature want to do if/when they take over, and it's likely they'll take over following the 2019 legislative elections.

[Virginiá]

The problem is, unless Republicans can wise up and come to the conclusion that their days drawing the maps in Virginia are more or less finished, there is no way that amendment passes this year or even in 2019. At least up to this point, there has been no signs they are open to creating a fair process for redistricting, and I think they even shot down a redistricting reform bill earlier this year.

That means that the best Democrats could do, if they flip the legislature in 2019, is pass it in 2020, then they have to pass it again in 2021, and it would appear on the ballot in 2022, long after the maps are redrawn. However, technically Democrats could pass a regular bill creating an independent commission, but it could be repealed just the same too. I'm a little skeptical that Democrats in the legislature are going to pass actual reform, but I could just be pessimistic. Redistricting brings out the worst in politicians. It's far too powerful of a process to allow partisan actors to have any significant hand in, and it's perplexing how the framers didn't see this from the get-go (or did but foolishly left it in their hands anyway).

[Virginiá]

Democrats must gerrymander Virginia to their own benefit after 2020. Stop talking about a nonpartisan redistricting commission.

no

[Virginiá]

Democrats must gerrymander Virginia to their own benefit after 2020. Stop talking about a nonpartisan redistricting commission.

no

Why not? If the Dems want to have any chance of keeping the house, such measures must be taken against an increasingly underhanded opposition. Should the Democrats really tie their hands behind their back in their battle with the GOP? I say no.

Trying to take the high road in this dispute will lead to us losing elections, and handed the GOP the House on a silver platter. We cannot let this happen.

I was mostly saying "no" to Solid saying "stop talking about nonpartisan redistricting commission." I mean, why? Why should we not talk about it? Solid can be partisan af sometimes and it can be off-putting, as he always talks as if that is THE way and everyone else is wrong and that is it, end of discussion. And I say this as a pretty partisan person myself.

I kind of like Gass3268's idea. I agree that unilateral disarmament is pretty stupid given Republicans seem pro-whatever-wins-them-elections, which has included voter suppression, court packing (and other judiciary-related power grabs) and insane levels of gerrymandering. Democrats need to take the gloves off and fight back until this fight is settled.

But let's be clear about something. As far as I am concerned, gerrymandering is election rigging. It's just fancier than stuffing ballot boxes or creative Jim Crow-like ideas. Gerrymandering constantly gets talked about as if it's just some normal event that we all hate but can't seem to stop. The reality is that it is greedy, corrupt politicians rigging elections so they can cling to power regardless of what the people want. It is something that belongs in 3rd world countries, not America. And the fact that we can't seem to end something so blatantly corrupt is just amazing.

[Virginiá]

^ Would a map like that actually hold up in an R wave? Republicans over-performed rather significantly during the Obama era, to the point where they came within a few points of winning the House popular vote in 2014, and somewhat less close in 2010. So it's not like Democrats can rely on a certain level of support in bad years, outside of maybe a guarantee that they at least win the popular vote.

[Virginiá]

RIP VAGOP

[Virginiá]

Honestly, as nice as it would be to get new a map, it's not even necessary for Democrats to flip the House of Delegates. Their current seats are fairly solid (give or take) and there has been a decent amount of movement away from Republicans since 2016 in like 6 - 10 other seats Republicans currently hold. So Democrats have solid opportunities in at least those seats, and they only need to net 2.

[Virginiá]

@Badger what I've always found amusing is that even in split control states where both parties know that no one is getting away with a gerrymander, they often still can't agree on neutral maps and end up punting to the courts. Like that is how desperate they are. They just can't bring themselves to do things fairly even when it's clear their schemes are not going to pan out.

It's almost like it physically hurts some lawmakers to draw districts that don't advantage themselves or their party.

Wait, so there are two separate cases on the same topic moving through the State SC and the SCOTUS? What happens if we get different decisions, one based on the US Constitution and the other on the VA Constitution?

I think the state-level suit already wrapped up with the VASC ruling against the plaintiffs.

The federal suit is our only hope. It should have been clear-cut but I guess not. If they drag this out into next summer, then there is no point. I'm not 100% but I think Virginia state elections in 2021 would be held under the new maps drawn for the decade, which means if the current HoD map isn't redrawn in time for 2019's elections, there isn't even any point in redrawing it at all unless the court wants to hold new elections too.

[Virginiá]

As expected:

BREAKING: “Special Master” Issues Report, Maps on Virginia Racial Packing Case; Federal Court Rejects VA Republicans’ Motion to Stay Court Order for New Map

http://bluevirginia.us/2018/12/breaking-special-master-issues-report-maps-on-virginia-racial-packing-case-federal-court-rejects-va-republicans-motion-to-stay-court-order-for-new-map

[Virginiá]

I thought the VASC already settled that other lawsuit? IIRC, they ruled against it. Maybe I'm wrong though.

-

Analysis by this person says Democrats are guaranteed D+3 with the proposed maps, pending final changes, and both the maps apparently make Cox's (GOP HoD Speaker) district competitive, although one makes it seriously competitive:

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1071187775628722182

^ (is a thread)

SCOTUS will probably stay all of this eventually though, but there is a chance the primary could be pushed back and the new maps are used if the court rules favorably for the plaintiffs. Since the lower court has allowed the redraw to continue, everything would be ready to go if SCOTUS allows it.

[Virginiá]

I don't understand why they wouldn't stop the redraw now if they think they may make a different decision. It's really time-sensitive at this point, considering the 2019 primaries are coming up in June. If during the summer they decide to not allow the redrawn map for whatever reason, that will completely blow up Virginia's legislative elections, since they will have either already picked the nominees or would be very close to the primary election date.

[Virginiá]

So, which districts could be affected?

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1084246219982028801

I also read that in almost any iteration, Kirkland Cox's (HoD Republican Speaker) seat becomes a tossup or better, depending on the final map.

[Virginiá]

I sure hope they’re not actually going to put this on the ballot when we’re mere months away from drawing the Virginia GOP into extinction.

The legislature has to pass it in two sessions, so if it doesn't pass this year, they won't have time to get on the ballot and approved before the next round of redistricting for legislative maps.

[Virginiá]

56 Clinton seats. I wonder what the Northam/Kaine numbers are:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1088144677092511744

[Virginiá]

Thorough critique of the sham Virginia GOP's redistricting reform proposal:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1090047934828208128

tl;dr: It's actually worse than the current way lines are drawn