FL-GOV 2018: Ron DeSantis vs. Andrew Gillum: Who wins?

[Virginiá]

I have trouble believing Gillum is really up 5 points.  There were a lot of undecideds in the poll that gave that result, and Florida's GOP is far more organized and in far better shape than Florida's Democratic Party.

That's a Horse Race Analysis statement, not an endorsement.  I haven't decided who I will vote for.  DeSantis is bad because he promises to be just like Rick Scott.  Gillum is bad because while he advocates some things I approve of (expanding Medicaid, some criminal justice proposals), he also advocates some things I consider horrible ($15/hour minimum wage, pro-gun control, elimination of McKay Scholarships which enables my son to go to a safe school, in favor of a teachers' union agenda).  In this situation where neither candidate is particularly attractive to me, I'm going to have to do a lot of homework to decide which candidate is better for me and my family.

I suppose the question becomes if you think the GOP controlled House would block Gillum initiatives you may disagree with

Yes. I mean, theoretically, if we had maybe some Watergate-level blowout, Democrats might be able to flip the FL House, but nothing indicates that kind of rout. Florida hasn't had a Republican backlash like the Midwest either, so there is no reason to believe Democrats would flip scores of marginal Trump districts that are needed to win that chamber.

Voting for Gillum is really about redistricting, having a say in policy (but not driving the discussion), and providing the other half of Florida with a governor who more vigorously pursues their interests as opposed to the Republican Party's, which has been calling the shots for 20 years now. It's nice to have some balance in what is essentially a state between tossup and Leans R.

This seems like something that could appeal to Fuzzy, even if he has some qualms with Gillum.

[Virginiá]

It should be pointed out that this would only apply to federal redistricting. Redistricting for the state legislature is passed as a joint resolution without any input from the governor.

Yea, but it implicitly affects legislative redistricting in the sense that Gillum can contest Scott's (or rather the Lt Gov at that point) ability to make those midnight appointments to the state Supreme Court that are probably unconstitutional. The only way to enforce the fair districts amendments from 2010 is to have a state Supreme Court that respects them. It's also about having a Governor who will use every tool at their disposal to block GOP schemes for the 2020 election, whether it's trying to pass new voting restrictions, or whether the registration deadline needs to be extended due to a hurricane, or whatever. The Republican early voting cuts from 2012 is an example of what Democrats want to avoid going into 2020.

If DeSantis wins, then the state Supreme Court goes 100% Republican-appointees for sure. That makes it more likely that the legislature can get some sort of gerrymanders through, imo.

[Virginiá]

'A mess': Florida's online voter-registration system panned

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/10/09/a-mess-floridas-online-voter-registration-system-panned-641953

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What is really irritating to me about this is that if a state is going to have some stupid, arbitrary deadline that isn't even needed thanks to technology, then they ought to run a 100% perfect system in the weeks leading up to the registration deadline. People don't tend to really tune into an election until the final month or so, which is why having deadlines at all is so frustratingly stupid. But to have such a poor system in place that it crashes or is otherwise unusable in the final day(s)/week(s) is completely unacceptable.

The only unsurprising thing here is that there is resistance to extend the deadline despite server problems essentially robbing people of their last day or two to register.


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Also:

Amid amped up scrutiny, North Carolina investor targeted by feds became top Florida GOP donor

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/10/09/amid-amped-up-scrutiny-north-carolina-investor-targeted-by-feds-became-top-florida-gop-donor-639295

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Definitely not trying to buy off politicians and regulators! Absolutely not!

[Virginiá]

Did anyone hear DeSantis on the hot mic at the end?! What a douche!!!

Couldn't tell what he was saying. All I heard was Gillum say he wished him well.

I didn't make out everything but DeSantis did say "you're a good guy" or something. I mean, courteous and all, but I wish they both would have just told each other to go to hell. We both know that's what they really wanted to say. Fake smiles and meaningless words are nauseating in these kinds of elections.

[Virginiá]

Voted this morning and good lord was it a geriatricfest if Ive ever seen one. I had to wait in line because none of the old people could hear their names being called.

Anyway voted Gillum, Nelson, Crist, Shaw, Fried, Cross, Diamond, no on retaining any of crook Scott's judicial appointments, no on all ballot initiatives except 3, 4, 9, 13

lmbo I just logged in to post that I voted, and that it looked like a geriatric ward. I saw some young people leaving as I was coming in, but inside, it was 55+ but mostly 65+.

Not too surprised I guess, given it was like 12:30pm. Early voting is really stupid in this county. It is only 8 - 4pm, which seems designed for retirees and really inconvenient for people that still work. The only viable days for working people is either lunch time or weekends (unless you get off work early or go in late).

[Virginiá]

Not sure if that link has the audio, but this one does:

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/andrew-gillum-racist-robocall_us_5bcf47a2e4b055bc9485320d

[Virginiá]

Pretty good article on Gillum's rise

https://www.usnews.com/news/the-report/articles/2018-10-30/andrew-gillums-improbable-run-against-ron-desantis-for-florida-governor

[Virginiá]

Andrew Gillum raises just shy of $3M in a day

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/279657-andrew-gillum-raises-3m

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This guy is a machine!

I really hope the FLDP can make a meaningful rebound under him.

[Virginiá]

I hopped on his bandwagon literally the day before the election. LOL. I'm glad he won. He turned out to be a dynamic and formidable candidate. Florida is very lucky.

Two words you will rarely find anywhere near each other.

Lucky indeed

[Virginiá]

So uh, at a Trump/DeSantis rally today, the Trumpsters were screaming “Lock him up!” in regards to Gillum. Huh?

https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/10/31/in-fort-myers-trump-says-andrew-gillum-would-take-a-wrecking-ball-to-floridas-economy/

They do that with all Trump's enemies now, regardless if they are actually suspected of committing crimes or not.

[Virginiá]

If Gillum wins he’s still more endangered by impeachment than Trump is.

lol how

I guess if the FBI investigation in Tallahassee expands or seems to encroach further on Gillum's activities, the Republican-dominated state House could try to impeach him. But it's moot anyway, because the state Senate would not convict, as Republicans won't have the votes.

Also, in Florida, I think it takes 2/3rd in the House to impeach?

https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_Impeachment_of_Officers,_Amendment_3_(1962)

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[Virginiá]

Agreed. It's obvious that Gillum tried to copy Obama, however that's largely been overshadowed by his scandals like the Hamilton tickets for example. We can see in the EV that the blacks are not turning in record numbers for Gillum/Nelson.

We got everything on your guys from stealing from Medicare, to paling around with nazis , to conspiring with a hostile government to commit election fraud and the best you can come up with is finksing Hamilton tickets?

Jesus... 

The Hamilton tickets are just a talking point. It has nothing to do with their position on the candidate, because their equation is incredibly simple: if candidate == Democrat, then oppose. The only role these excuses play are verbally defending themselves. If they somehow had absolutely no justification for their position, they would just say nothing but still oppose the Democrat.

Just partisanship in action, really.

[Virginiá]

So it's partisanship when the other side votes for candidates that will write laws they support, but it's courage when your side does it, right? Give me a break lol, people need zero 'justification' EVER to vote for the person who holds their own beliefs, regardless of the scandals or anything else of that candidate. It's why there's no justification needed for a Dem in NJ to vote for Menendez - indeed, why would a Dem in NJ ever NOT vote for Menendez?

No, it's like that for every partisan, on every side.

That I used 'Republican' as an example is a non-issue here. I was just specifically talking about him. Come on, do you really think I'm that bad?

[Virginiá]

Welp, Ag Comm is our sh**tty consolation prize I guess. Fried better start fundraising ASAP for the 2022 gubernatorial race. Nelson is finished unless there really are 30k uncounted ballots

The 2022 gubernatorial race is irrelevant. The state supreme court fix is already in, and the next redistricting does not happen until 2032. Sure, a governor might be able to veto legislation, but that's not much consolation when the GOP has already had 25 years to pass any legislation it wants anyways. The 2018 gubernatorial election was it. Gillum blew it, and there's no coming back from this... period.

Again, not if initiated amendments to create redistricting commission(s) are filed for 2020. That happened in 2010 and both passed. The only reason they didn't work is because they violated the cardinal rule of initiatives: never, ever expect partisan lawmakers to do the right thing.