I'd say he is overwhelmingly favored to win until proven otherwise. AD-36 went for Trump by over 30 points and for Romney by somewhat less but still > 20 points. It's Republican enough to absorb an intermediate backlash against him, if that even happens. I think the Trump era has shown us just how tribal things can get, and this district doesn't really fit the profile of a place trending to Democrats in any way, which is something Democrats depended on even in the Alabama Senate special election.
