New PA Maps In Effect

[Virginiá]

I have no problem with the PA map - or the partisan Democratic Gerrymanders in MD or IL. But if you don't think the current PA map is "fair" because it's not "proportional" but also don't think that Republicans should be entitled to 2 or 3/8 seats in Maryland instead of the 1 they currently have, for example, then you're a partisan - just of the Democratic stripe.

Where did I say I was OK with Democratic gerrymanders? The only actual part of this I've struggled with is the idea of Democrats unilaterally disarming while scores of Republican-controlled states privately mock their stupidity as they gather their people in some musty lawyer's office to abuse their position in order to lock in an unfair advantage meant to thwart the will of the voters to which they are allegedly accountable. So don't be surprised if I'd prefer seeing Republicans lose their cartographer's pen first. It doesn't mean I still don't want my party to put an end to brazen political corruption.

Personally, I'd rather Congress just pass a bill mandating independent commissions for Congressional redistricting for all states at the same time. Then we wouldn't have this problem where each side is leery of giving it up before the other does. But I think we both know that's not going to happen anytime soon. Both parties (especially Republicans this time around) love to marginalize the role of gerrymandering in their victories, but they wouldn't be clinging to this power for dear life if it meant so little. None of these lawmakers deserve that power.

[Virginiá]

gerrymandering helped the dems hold the house from 1952-1944, but when the tables turn, it suddenly becomes a 'democracy' issue

The average age of users on this site is probably around college-aged (give or take) - not old enough to have been an adult during those years. Why should they care what power-hungry politicians back then used to do with maps? Many of us just want this crap to end. So forgive us if we don't want to give Republicans "their turn" to abuse their power to rig elections in their favor.

Your kind of logic is also a great way to ensure bad things like this never end, since there will always be one party claiming it's their turn to thwart the will of voters.

[Virginiá]

i meant 1994 whoops, that's a lot more recent. what's a fair way to draw districts then in your opinion?

Independent commissions where the individuals are not allowed to be lobbyists, lawmakers, party officials and so on, which specific rules that prohibit favoring a party and/or person(s). The map can even be created in a public space, with everything fully documented. Then hold hearings to solicit input. This way there is no secret map that someone pulled out of a party lawyer's desk drawer. Obviously this is just a basic outline - more specific rules and procedures would have to be added. You would have to develop a reasonable way to pick the people as well.

This isn't brain surgery after all. There just needs to be a little trust and cooperation between the two parties to develop a process that creates an acceptable map.

[Virginiá]

Does anyone have the Obama-Romney numbers for this new map?

[Virginiá]

Does anyone have the Obama-Romney numbers for this new map?

Nate Cohn has fused some numbers and calls it 9-9 in terms of Obama-Romney. I collect past results and some Obama-McCain numbers for competitive districts here.

Excellent! Thanks foucaulf. This is a superb map.

Everyone remember to bring your Republican tear jars when you browse social media today. Don't miss a drop

[Virginiá]

Say it with me...

Great map!

Great map! The craven Republicans will scurry back to their holes as Democrats dominate this November.

[Virginiá]

What I love about this map is that it keeps Lamb's political future alive. Whether he wins or loses in March, he's certain to challenge Rothfus in PA17. I would predict Conor would win that race due to the stark contrast in personality between him and Keith, and the national climate.

That was what I was thinking. I'm pretty happy overall with this map, but the chance to keep Lamb in the game long-term is icing on the cake

[Virginiá]

Fwiw the PA Dem lawyer and resident expert on the state on DKE thinks this goes nowhere

I'm not an avid watcher of PA politics, but they do not really seem known for this kind of stuff. If this was about North Carolina, I'd believe it in an instant, but the PAGOP is not usually this aggressive. Further, impeachment of 4 or 5 Democratic justices, aka basically the entire bench, that is a dramatically corrupt thing to do in response to the court overturning a blatant gerrymander. I'm not convinced they can get every single Republican Senator to sign on to it.

If you want a situation where chances of impeachment skyrocket, I'd wait until a lawsuit is filed against the legislative maps. After all, this new Congressional map isn't threatening any state lawmaker's job

[Virginiá]

I don’t know anything about Edwards, but as much as I dislike Morganelli, he’s pretty much a lock in the primary and the GE under these lines unless someone really strong gets in the Democratic primary and a bunch of the non-Morganelli folks drop out.  I can’t really think of such a candidate atm, so we’re probably stuck with Morganelli.  On the bright side he’s probably gonna make this an easy pickup, so there’s that

As someone unfamiliar with this person - what did he do (or not do)?

[Virginiá]

Oh well that's just great. Policy positions aside, what the party really needs are more politicians who support Republicans against fellow Democrats. Yup yup

[Virginiá]

New Pa. congressional district map could be challenged by Common Cause, NAACP on civil rights grounds

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/pennsylvania-congressional-district-map-challenge-civil-rights-naacp-common-cause-philadelphia-gerrymandering-20180221.html

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You'd think they would be fine with the current map. It's not like it'll be in effect for more than 4 years. For gods sakes.

[Virginiá]

Costello continues to be an idiot. Calls new map “racist.” Won’t call Trump that, though!

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/pennsylvania-gerrymandering-case-republicans-sue-federal-court-20180221.html?mobi=true

It helps that the NAACP is thinking about filing a racial gerrymandering lawsuit against the new map

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=282416.msg6072378#msg6072378

[Virginiá]

@Virginia: the only wrinkle I could possibly see this causing is forcing a stay on the new map (which would run counter to these groups’ interest!). Which would just be even more stupid. Even if Philly was redrawn to make two black seats, it wouldn’t affect people like Costello and Fitzpatrick in the slightest. It would make the Delco seat slightly more Republican, but that’s just semantics. They would merely get 38% of the vote in that new seat instead of 35%.

That is what I was thinking. Considering most black voters are Democrats, a map that elects more Democrats is already going to help them, considering the party's policy interests have aligned much more with theirs in the Obama era. I really can't help but think this will backfire on them and the party if they push it right now. That being said, I wish there was a way they could have conveyed this need to the court beforehand so it could have been incorporated into the map as it was being drawn.

[Virginiá]

Let's keep in mind that if a panel of 3 Republican-appointed judges decides to stay the new map, SCOTUS could just as easily overturn it. I don't think anyone would seriously say that judges are completely objective in their rulings, but the USSC is not so far gone that they would let a stay on a state supreme court's ruling stand when the argument presented is that courts should have no power to overturn unconstitutional maps. A stay must show that the plaintiffs have a reasonable shot at success (or something like that), and quite frankly, the GOP's argument here is crap and incredibly damaging if it were to become precedent.

Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't appeals in regards to a state supreme court's ruling supposed to go immediately to the US Supreme Court? Is this just their 'backup' lawsuit?

[Virginiá]

FF move

it's funny how gerrymandering is illegal when the gop does it but not when the libs do so; PA was gerrymandered by the dems for much of the past30-40 years, why only illegal now?

Was it? Looking at the partisan makeup of the legislature since 1980, it goes like this:

80s redistricting: Republicans control leg + Gov
90s redistricting: Split leg + Dem Gov
2000s redistricting: Republicans control leg + Gov
2010s redistricting: Republicans control leg + Gov


The legislative lines are by a commission which the state Supreme Court majority chooses, so Democrats could have controlled that pre-2000, but Congressional lines are drawn by the legislature. I don't see how they did that.

Most people on Atlas who are against gerrymandering are against it for both parties. Atlas has a constant college-age user base, so it's not like everyone here was also an adult in the last 3 redistricting cycles where you could possibly call out hypocrisy. The general idea is that Republicans went way too far this time as they controlled so many state governments, on top of the fact that computers have made gerrymandering a lot more effective. It's an evolution of a corrupt practice that has gotten worse with the advent of better technology and very detailed sets of data about the populace.

For me personally, I'm against gerrymandering by both parties. It's election rigging, plain and simple. I don't particularly care if Democrats got to gerrymander 2-3 times in a row before or if Republicans did, it needs to end now. This isn't an issue where you can cry out "ITS MY TURN!"

I wish someone would keep count of all the times people rehash the argument you just made. I swear I see it like once every 4-6 months.

[Virginiá]

what is wrong with gerrymandering? no one seems to be up in arms about maryland

Plenty of people here have expressed support for ending it in Maryland. I personally support ending it in Maryland. Myself and others want it ended everywhere. I see some people go out of the way to include it once in a while as well, when talking about it. The difference is that other people, when talking about one particular state, do not want to constantly be feeling like they should always balance a forum post out, like god forbid anyone mentions PA's gerrymander without also talking about MD's gerrymander, because we must be balanced! Another reason you probably don't see much about Maryland here is because there is nothing to talk about. Pennsylvania's was a big deal, the court case was short enough to keep it being talked about, and the appeals/attempts to block it were drawn out enough to keep the discussion going. There is nothing like that with MD. The lawsuit is being considered by SCOTUS and there hasn't been anything new to discuss for a long time.

Unfortunately (or fortunately?) for Republicans, they got to gerrymander far more states than Democrats, which is why Republicans keep having to bring up the same two states over and over again: IL and MD, while you can practically close your eyes and put your finger on a map of the US and have a good chance of landing on a state Republicans gerrymandered to hell and back. That's why people are constantly talking about Republican gerrymandering. Because the GOP had a lot more maps to rig.

[Virginiá]

Regarding the potential impeachment of those four Democratic justices, it's important to keep in mind that this is more than just the Congressional map to these Republicans. Legislative redistricting in 2021 is done by a commission of 4 people, where a tie is broken by a 5th member appointed by the state Supreme Court majority.

In other words, Republicans know that if Democrats maintain a majority on the state Supreme Court in 2021, not only will Republicans lose the ability to gerrymander the legislative maps, but will probably end up with a favorable Dem-leaning map, even if it's not a brazen gerrymander. So there is an incredible amount of pressure for these Republicans to get rid of these judges. Fortunately, their slim supermajority in the Senate makes it difficult to accomplish.

[Virginiá]

I mean sure, but how does impeachment avoid that? If a justice is impeached, aren't there just going to be new elections to fill the vacancies, right? And after such a brazen act by the GOP and in a national political climate, I'm pretty sure Democrats would just sweep the seats again. So what's the endgame? Keep impeaching over and over?

After impeachment, Wolf would have to fill the vacancies and the appointed justices would stand for election (not retention) in the next odd-year election, which is in 2019, and would feature a higher turnout environment due to Philly's mayoral race. I'm betting Wolf would insist on appointing all Democrats and the GOP Senate would probably refuse to confirm them.

You're right, it seem pointless, but keep in mind that these are political animals who have been backed into a corner. Republicans have gotten pretty comfortable in drawing the lines cycle after cycle. It wouldn't surprise me if some of these impeachment-supporting Republicans don't particularly care about any backlash, or whether it would work for sure. They just want a chance. Doing nothing gives them no chance, while removing the justices would give them a chance to win one or more seats on the SSC.

Personally, I doubt these justices get removed from office in the end. I'm not yet convinced they can rally every single Republican Senator to vote to remove over half the state Supreme Court over a gerrymandering ruling in a midterm election year, but I believe they have huge incentive to really think about doing it, because for the first time in decades, they are going into a redistricting cycle with no control over the maps, and will probably be forced to re-draw the legislative maps before 2020's elections (assuming a lawsuit picks up steam in time for that, which I imagine will happen). Republicans love to counter claims of gerrymandering by saying Democrats can't win elections so they sue, but Republicans know damn well they are addicted to rigging maps. They know how much extra power it's given them in the 2010s.