New Republic: The Malicious Politics of Millennial-Bashing

[Virginiá]

The latest attacks on young people's lifestyle choices are being fueled by generational polarization—and signal an emerging conservative strategy.

https://newrepublic.com/article/144237/malicious-politics-millennial-bashing

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This is a different angle but Republicans have basically pursued the same ends via different means. Consolidation of the white vote has mostly been among older whites, while younger whites have more or less remained just as Democratic as they were when Obama was first elected. Boomers will have quite a bit of influence left in them for years, but trying to run up the score among old people by scapegoating and alienating the young could prove disastrous down the road. This might just well be the political equivalent of drinking seawater.

[Virginiá]

Didn't Trump win a plurality of whites 18-29? Millennials lean-D because they are racially diverse.

He did, but only by a small margin, and by less than Romney. That's why I said they remained about as Democratic as when Obama first got elected (if you put aside his overperformance with the 7 pt win). It's not enough for Republicans to just win even a plurality of young whites. Republicans depend on running up huge margins with white voters to overcome the diversification of the electorate. If Democrats continue to win 45% or more of white Millennials, with Republicans chronically losing even more young whites to 3rd parties, that means the Republican share of the white vote will eventually start falling over the next 15 years or so, which is the exact opposite direction it needs to go.

Further, it should go without stating that if Republicans did attempt some sort of generational strategy, it could alienate even more young whites who currently lean Republican, while probably making only marginal (if that) gains among older non-white voters, who have been notoriously stubborn Democrats no matter what.

Honestly, to me at least, this kind of strategy represents the pinnacle of toxic short-term thinking that has plagued the GOP since the mid-2000s, and I mean this in terms of legislative strategy to election strategy.

[Virginiá]

God I hate being part of this generation.  It deserves everything coming to it.

I don't know, I mean I get what you're saying, but I don't view things like lower turnout among Millennials as special in any way. Young people always have lower turnout that reliably increases with age. It's been this way for a long, long time. That being said, at least we are doing better than generation x did.

So yes, they could do something about it technically (like vote), but many have a number of reasons for not doing it, and that will inevitably change. Other than that, I'm not sure there is anything particularly unique or bad about the political engagement of Millennials vs past post-WW2 generations (if not further back).

[Virginiá]

Any competent and charismatic Democrat should be able to beat Trump among Millennials by ~30 points. The same should be applicable to Gen Z, who, despite all the BS you see coming from the right wing media, aren't different from Millennials in any notable way.

We should get a pretty good preview in 2018. Turnout aside, Democrats as a whole should be able to rack up over 60% with 18-29 year olds if Trump is still as unpopular as he is now. He's breaking 70% disapprove with 18-29 year olds in some polls. The last bad GOP midterm was 2006, and at that point the 18-44 bloc was not nearly as Democratic as it is now. Imagine what kind of backlash Republicans could see now.

[Virginiá]

While they are a slightly more diverse generation, Gen Z have virtually no recollection of how bad the Bush years were (the oldest barely turning 9 when he left office) and have instead seen their parents struggle primarily in the Obama-led economy. Of course this can easily change if Trump or Pence end up being disasters from now til 2020/2024. Plus virtually none of them have entered college yet; which can shape one's worldview.

I'd say Democrats were, in a way, lucky to end up with Trump. Otherwise what we'd have is a deeply unpopular Clinton, completing at least 12 straight years of Democratic rule (wh), which has its perks but at the same it, it could drive a lot of newer young voters away from Democrats at least temporarily, if not permanently. These youngest voters, 18-24, would have grown up associating the country's problems with the person in the White House, as is usual, except this time you don't have a charismatic Obama to keep them from straying. Clinton probably would have sealed the deal on a lot of young voters who were growing skeptical of Democrats.

Instead, these youngest voters are likely to end up with a strong Bush-like effect for at least the 4 years Trump is president (if not longer). It took Bush years of terrible decisions and all kinds of highly negative events to generate that kind of negative imprinting, and Trump is doing it all by himself right out of the gate!

[Virginiá]

I used to respond to that in a way I imagine you are right now (i.e., rolling of the eyes), but I'm not so sure anymore.  I think there has been a fundamental change in the way people are socialized in their youth, the way people interact, the way people interface with politics, and so on.  I think it's possible that as a result, this generation will have either a) higher levels of apathy; and/or b) and this one is more dangerous, higher levels of being distracted by non-issues, trivial minutia, and stupid little stuff like that (sort of a "wedge issues" on steroids), and these types of issues will be among fault lines that help drive hyper-polarization.

Maybe, and I don't deny there have been substantial changes in the way Millennials have socialized, but I don't think it means anything particularly special for the future of politics, so I imagine we'll have to agree to disagree on that.

Also I did read that Atlantic article (I actually made a thread on it here in Off Topic ), it was good stuff.