VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Virginiá]

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/29/terry-mcauliffe-fund-virginia-races-243308

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[Virginiá]

Honestly, I've been thinking that a Northam win of +5 - +6 would actually be pretty underwhelming, all things considered. I know it's a pretty standard margin prediction for Virginia, but Democrats like Kaine and Warner were picking up similar margins back in the early-mid 2000s. This was when the state was more Republican-leaning. On top of this, the Democratic Party's base is exceptionally fired up under an incumbent Republican president who is deeply unpopular not only in Virginia, nationally as well. With this in mind, a Democratic candidate really should be able to break double-digits without too much of a sweat.

That being said, I think I might be rather disappointed if Democrats don't score big this cycle, because most of what we know about the VA political environment suggests they should.

[Virginiá]

It's not to say that Democrats should be winning back those lost rural voters, but more that they used to over-perform their presidential performance, and now they are mostly breaking even, give or take. Also, as I noted, this isn't just a normal election year. This is really the best environment a VA Democrat could ask to run in.

Though, I guess this could be too simplistic of a view.

[Virginiá]

Whoever wins, this could be a Pyrrhic victory either way.  The 2019 state legislative elections, particularly in the state senate, will determine who gets to draw the 2021 maps (assuming Anthony Kennedy doesn't decide to draw them himself, which looks like a significant possibility).  The off-cycle legislative elections usually go against the governor's party.   

You mean the president's party? Virginia's elections do not operate much differently than midterms, which have almost always swung towards the WH out-party. The added effect of VA's super low turnout off-off-year legislative elections means the party with the most enthusiasm tends to win out. In this case, Democrats stand to benefit a great deal if Trump is still unpopular in 2019. There are a number of GOP-held state Senate seats that will make excellent targets, and this time the party's base is fired up enough to strongly contest them, incumbent or not.

[Virginiá]

Identical to my ticket were I Virginian

ditto

[Virginiá]

Don't forget 2013 as well McAuliffe in the RCP Average was up by 6 in the no third party polls and up by 6.7 with third party's https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2013/governor/va/virginia_governor_cuccinelli_vs_mcauliffe_vs_sarvis-4111.html

Won by only 2.5 points

I think you are missing the point of SoC's post. He was musing whether the candidate in Virginia that over-performs their polling is by default Republicans, or by default the opposition party (eg the party not holding the White House). It is a long-standing trend that the party not holding the White House tends to be more enthusiastic about voting and the party holding the WH tends to have its enthusiasm (and thus turnout) dampened. This is compounded when the incumbent WH president is unpopular and controversial, leading to an even more energetic opposition party. If this trend were to hold, then Northam would be expected to over-perform his polls.

We'll just have to see how this plays out.

[Virginiá]

Well, when you simply list the turnout difference and then say Junk Poll, the only reasonable interpretation of your post is you expect a D+20 Turnout. I'm sorry, I can't read your mind.

That's not how I interpreted his post. The point I thought he was trying to make was that the actual primary electorate was so far in the other direction that it makes this poll too unreliable. Their sample envisioned an unlikely electorate, given the primary turnout and the differences in voter enthusiasm since Trump took office.

[Virginiá]

I also have to strongly recommend Miles's 6-part preview on the competitive seats in the Virginia House of Delegates. Hundreds of maps, information on fundraising and number of volunteers, historical background, etc.

Link?

You can find them here: https://decisiondeskhq.com/news/author/milescoleman/

[Virginiá]

If it works, it works. But I'm worried "child molesters" is too much of a shock for people to believe, and thus will actually hurt Gillespie.

This kind of thinking in political campaigns is part of the reason so many people hate politicians and elections.

Shame!

[Virginiá]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/northam-touts-212k-weekend-door-knocks-in-virginia--while-dnc-was-fretting-about-race/2017/10/23/a4627eae-b82a-11e7-a908-a3470754bbb9_story.html

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For Northam, as the article states, this doesn't include the canvassing/GOTV ops of outside groups.

[Virginiá]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/gun-control-group-everytown-pours-another-700k-into-virginia-elections/2017/10/23/4e7a07b8-b781-11e7-be94-fabb0f1e9ffb_story.html

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I wish they would spend less on mailers. I don't think those are worth the money, at least if there is any chance most of their targeted voters have gotten one already. Better to plow that money into other GOTV efforts.

[Virginiá]

What effect, if any, will there be on this race from the reported indictments in the Mueller investigation?

It's possible it could widen the enthusiasm gap. I'm not sure how many votes such an event would flip though, even if there is some of correlation between views of the president and downballot election choices. That effect is usually more prevalent in races that aren't as high-profile as the Governors race.

[Virginiá]

1) Racist dog whistles: check
2) Attacking reporters: check
3) Preposterous ads (pedophilia accusations): check


>Moderate in today's Republican party

I'm sure I missed some.

Gillespie is a moderate in the sense that if he didn't feel the need (and wasn't so willing..) to bend and twist his agenda/campaigning style to win an election, he would probably campaign and govern like a moderate.

But that is not the case. Gillespie is the ultimate partisan hack. He was literally paid to be a partisan hack by holding the job of RNC chairman. Being a spineless hack that will do or say anything to cling to power and raise money is pretty much the job description of a party chair. It is because of this that Ed's gutter campaign and shameless flip-flopping doesn't surprise me one bit, even if I think he would govern a different way under the right circumstances.

[Virginiá]

Obligatory both sides do it?

[Virginiá]

Seriously you guys are all political hacks and I’m not someone who thinks every election is rigged. But I do think that Washington gubernatorial 2004 and Minnesota senate 2008 and *maybe* North Carolina gubernatorial race in 2016.
But those first two are 100% rigged just like how Illinois was rigged in 1960.

So all close elections where Republicans lose are rigged? Do you work for the RNC or NCGOP?

[Virginiá]

Look there is really no point in arguing endlessly about this. Greedo is not going to change his mind, and I doubt many of us are either. I don't think he is correct but in the end I can't say for sure what will happen next week.

Let's just wait and see, because this isn't really accomplishing anything.

[Virginiá]

The most interesting thing I think is how little the Latino Victory issue is going to be. Over the next week they are going to spend 32K only in NOVA - itself a drop compared to 2.3 Million being spent by Northam and 1.96 Million being spent by Gillespie. How much airtime do you think 32K gives you in one of the nations most expensive media markets in the last week of a campaign?  If these buys were not reserved in advance, they they could be even more limited.

So the ad is only playing in NOVA for starters, the one area of the state where its issues actually make sense. The monetary spending suggests it won't get the airtime it needs compared to all the other partisan attacks  in the region: Northam and Gillespie, Fairfax and Vogel, Herring and Adams, in addition to all the competitive HoD races currently in NOVA. Its looking like the only people who are really going to see and vividly remember the Latino Victory ad are those that see it online through their partisan networks - Democrats and Republicans who already have their mind made up before watching it.

This about sums up my opinion on it. I do actually think the overall message of the ad has merit but in this case it seems self-defeating if it was put out there with a huge ad buy, and that doesn't seem to be the case. The only people who will probably end up knowing much about this or seeing it will be activists and other partisans who have long since made up their minds. Maybe it could motivate some conservatives who were thinking about not voting, but I dunno how we would even measure that. So far enthusiasm still seems to be on Northam's side.

If Gillespie somehow wins, or if it is a very narrow Northam win, I really doubt this ad will be responsible for it.

[Virginiá]

Another Ralph Northam supports sex offenders ad from Gillespie

Will their be a chorus of condemnation to this one too?

Gillespie gunna Gillespie

[Virginiá]

This minor fiasco kind of stems from the lack of understanding of the political environment by new left-wing groups such as the one that put out this ad. Yes, it's not fair that Gillespie can run a campaign deep in the gutter and Northam can't, but that's the reality the voters and the media have created, so you have to stick with it for now.

I would also add that while that is kind of unfair, it's not like I want my party or supporting groups to get into the gutter themselves. I mean is it even necessary? Since when is our ability to win dependent on controversial ads? Especially after listening to a lot of people on the left say we need to promote our ideas and not focus so much on questions of character.

[Virginiá]

How old does the electorate tend to be/vote in VA off-year elections?

For an off-off-year election in Virginia with statewide races, it basically functions as a midterm electorate with midterm turnout (2013 had even more voters than in 2014). Although this favors Republicans to a degree, their continuing slippage among white college grads will cost them, as they punch above their weight in non-presidential elections.

[Virginiá]

Greenberg has no clue what he is talking about. One of the big criticism you have heard from members of the left and minority voters is the fact that Northam has stayed clear from those issues and has talked up the economy.

I am so sick and tired of the useless dead weight in this party.

And ironically it is Gillespie who has really made culture war stuff his calling card. Greenberg is just talking out of his butt to stay relevant, as evidenced by his expert analysis that reads as if by someone who is analyzing the wrong election.

[Virginiá]

Alright now I'm starting to roll my eyes. This was a poorly thought-out ad, but the number of people who actually saw it may actually be less than the number of people outraged on Twitter.

The ad only seems much more relevant because we're all on edge sucking down coffee and/or energy drinks all day while refreshing Virginia election-related pages.

In the end it probably won't make a difference one way or the other.

[Virginiá]

Now does everyone see why I have been saying Gillespie will win.
Northam is maybe one of the worst politicians right now in America not counting Hillary.
Northam probably would have lost if he hadn’t run against E.W Jackson.

No. You just keep jumping on every negative thing that comes out about Northam and use it to justify your already flimsy but stubborn prediction. To be honest I don't think Northam as a candidate or his campaign has anything to with your prediction - based on what I've seen, I think it is entirely based on Republican candidates over-performing polls in 2013 and 2014, and you've just assumed it will continue this time around as well. That is probably the entirety of it.

[Virginiá]

LOL this thread is peak Atlas.

So... I haven't been here for a full cycle yet, but... is this the norm for any competitive race on Atlas? Like, complete madness until election night?

Basically. Extreme overreaction and whiplash to every minor event.

Whooo, what a ride.

I don't think it's a default reaction for every race. This whole ruckus is compounded by the fact that Democrats have generally been failing as a party since 2010. While I think elections under Trump are going to be unkind to Republicans over the next two cycles, it'll obviously be a while before that materializes. Once Democrats start winning more races and rebound in raw political power, I think people will be less tense and more confident.

However Northam isn't the best candidate, and his campaign isn't the best either. It really doesn't help in the end. But we'll see. Everyone just needs to relax a little and thinking all these little things mean so much. This is like the electoral equivalent of a hangover, where you are hyper-sensitive to various stimuli after waking up.

[Virginiá]

Ok guys I think its fair to say we've all got our licks in, trolling-wise. Let's at least try to keep the discussion amicable and semi-serious.