MO: RABA Research: Clinton +4 (user search)
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  MO: RABA Research: Clinton +4 (search mode)
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Author Topic: MO: RABA Research: Clinton +4  (Read 2583 times)
Virginiá
Virginia
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« on: March 12, 2016, 06:47:56 PM »
« edited: March 12, 2016, 06:49:47 PM by Virginia »

What? The non-white vote has increased as a percentage of the Democratic primary electorate in every state except (strangely) Virginia.

I think that probably has something to do with a combination of two factors:

1. non-white voter growth in Virginia has been somewhat slower than a host of other states - African American growth is relatively static and Hispanic/Asian growth is decently fast, but they have far lower turnout rates so it takes longer for their actual voter numbers to catch up

2. Virginia has had a lot of migration from other liberal states which was important in its change from reliably red to reliably blue. A lot of these people aren't necessarily minorities so their increasing numbers has sort of offset the gains in non-white primary voters. Other states with increasing non-white primary voters don't usually have this mitigating factor.

And in regards to other states with increasing non-white primary voters - If you mean places like minority-rich Southern states, then you have to consider that after Obama, white voter support for Democrats collapsed in parts of the South, which would lead to an increase in the number of non-white primary voters relative to the entire primary electorate. Not necessarily because their numbers increased, but rather that white democrat numbers decreased.

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Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,920
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2016, 01:12:13 AM »

2. Virginia has had a lot of migration from other liberal states which was important in its change from reliably red to reliably blue.

Reliably blue? lol

The direction the national Republican party is going and the large electorate changes going on in Virginia are pushing it fast into a non-contestable category. If the GOP ran Kasich this year, it would be open but running people like Trump or Cruz takes it off the map. Every 4 years VA is going to drift further and further from the GOP and with the direction of the party, I don't see how they win it.

I probably should have said Likely Dem rather than imply Solid, but I stand by my position that by the time the GOP gets itself together, however many years that takes, it won't be viable anymore.
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