From my reading of a well-known conservative site, it appears like an unknown lawyer, Michael Tenenbaum, filed for the seat today in the GOP primary. This hasn't appeared on the California SOS site yet and whether this is accurate or not, I dunno.
Given this, it looks like to me that we could be facing three non-entities (the two Democrats are "out there" candidates frankly) running for election to the seat (you don't see that too often).
That leads me to think there may be a write-in candidacy on both sides with preferred candidates. Rather amusing in all.
It seems to me that the Republicans are pretty certain to retain the seat given that the Harvard-educated GOPer Tenenbaum seems like a better candidate than either of the Democrats. Mary Pallant, who lost a race for city council in the tiny city of Oak Park, gettng only 8% of the vote, is a joke. Jill Martinez, who appears to live outside the district in Oxnard, and seems to be a "social gospel"-type clergy womandoesn't exactly seem like a very good fit for the district...
With Ventura and Santa Barbara counties divided so that the Democratic parts are packed into Lois Capps' district and the conservative parts are in Gallegly's district, Democrats probably wouldn't have much of a chance, even under the best circumstances. Still, the best Democratic candidates would probably be from the Ventura county board of supervisors with either Linda Parks or Steve Bennett. However, of course, they have the same problem that the credible Republicans do--they're not on the ballot!
As others have mentioned, I would expect to see other GOPers attempt write-in campaigns. The problem, though, that many of them may have is not that all of the local GOP legislators are already on the ballot for other positions and are not allowed to remove themselves at this point, preventing them from also pursuing the congressional nod. That eliminates GOP LG candidate and state senator Tom McClintock, state senator and Controller candidate Tony Strickland and his wife state Rep. Audra Strickland, who is seeking reelection.
I would assume that Gallegly ally Glen Becerra, a Simi Valley councilman, is would be the best write-in candidate for the GOP. There are a number of other prominant municipal-level Republicans who might also want to give an open seat a shot.
