2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose

[socaldem]

Atlas underestimates how simple the median voter is. They don’t care about things like how moderate someone is—they care about whether someone is good looking, whether they can shoot a gun or drink a beer with you. Since Gallego is a young Marine, gettable voters are likely going to care a lot more about that than how far left he is. Jason Kander and Jared Golden were able to be perceived as much more moderate than they actually are simply by being telegenic veterans

This. Median voters don't care about actual policy. The median voter not only doesn't pay enough attention to politics to do so, their policy priorities tend to be a total hodgepodge that doesn't fit in well with either party.

I also want to ask Atlas one question: If Arizona is only willing to vote for Sensible Moderate Blue Dog Democrats , explain Katie Hobbs/Kathy Hoffman winning statewide running as generic Democrats.

These blue avatars are making sense.

I'm a hard pass on Grant "snore" Woods.

I am intrigued by both Ruben Gallego and Mark Kelly.

Ruben Gallego is an up-and-comer. He is a progressive but seems earnest and non-controversial and has a good personal profile. Plus representation matters and the Dem. ticket would benefit from a boost in Latinx representation.

Mark Kelly has a lot of residual goodwill as the husband of Gabby Giffords. Had they not tried to assassinate Giffords, she would likely be in the Senate already (having defeated Flake in '12) and also a major contender for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2020. I am very moved by the Kelly/Giffords advocacy and think that Kelly's bipartisan outsider profile could be an advantage.

I would be inclined to encourage a robust primary to determine which is the more capable, energetic candidate. As long as they don't get nasty with each other... but it seems Kelly may be looking for a "cleared field" which I'm not sure is either possible or advisable.

[socaldem]

Out of curiosity, is this the quickest ascension to senior senator in history? Since McCain/Kyl’s seat was vacant at the time Sinema took the oath, she immediately became the senior senator. If that were so, it would, by extension, be the first time anyone served in the Senate without being the junior senator for even a second (all of this excluding when the Senate was first constituted as a bidy in 1789, of course).

That does seem to beat out Feinstein who was junior senator from November-January 1992.