NC-SEN, 2022: The Beasley Resurrection?

[Trans Rights Are Human Rights]

Probably the one person who could beat Dan Bishop in a primary.

[Trans Rights Are Human Rights]

Bishop and Trump alike would flatten him if either were to run. That said, likely R until I have a reason to call it otherwise. I don't trust my state in the slightest.

[Trans Rights Are Human Rights]

Bishop and Trump alike would flatten him if either were to run. That said, likely R until I have a reason to call it otherwise. I don't trust my state in the slightest.

Bishop ? Why do you think he would flatten him ?

All Bishop has to do is remind the people of North Carolina that he tried to stop the radical transgender agenda and the Senate seat is his, unless Trump runs.

[Trans Rights Are Human Rights]

Bishop and Trump alike would flatten him if either were to run. That said, likely R until I have a reason to call it otherwise. I don't trust my state in the slightest.

Bishop ? Why do you think he would flatten him ?

All Bishop has to do is remind the people of North Carolina that he tried to stop the radical transgender agenda and the Senate seat is his, unless Trump runs.

Walker is a pastor, I doubt you can accuse him of being a liberal on social issues.

Sure, but he doesn't have the same credentials of  cisgender activism.

[Trans Rights Are Human Rights]

https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1433147668096819203

I know this seat is a stretch anyway so she won't be a problem, but Christ, I do not want to have to vote for her.

[Trans Rights Are Human Rights]

RIP FF. Dem Primary goes from Safe Beasley to Titanium Beasley. General stays at Likely R, bordering on Safe.

[Trans Rights Are Human Rights]

Hot take: Budd will win the general election by double digits. Beasley is a terrible candidate, since she just lost a statewide election and supports the filibuster. Also, it will be a bigger red wave than 2010, book it.

Is it really a hot take? Unlike 2014, there's no Democratic incumbent to make the margin narrower than anticipated.

Presidential:
2000: R+12.83 (13.35 right, NPV)
2004: R+12.43 (9.97 right)
2008: D+0.33 (6.93 right)
2012: R+2.04 (5.90 right)
2016: R+3.66 (5.75 right)
2020: R+1.35 (5.80 right)

The trend in the 2000s reached a halt in the 2010s.

Senatorial:
2002: R+8.61 (3.88 right, GCB)
2004: R+4.58 (1.94 right, GCB / 2.12 right, NPV)
2008: D+8.47 (2.13 right, GCB / 1.21 left, NPV)
2010: R+11.77 (5.03 right, GCB)
2014: R+1.56 (4.14 left, GCB)
2016: R+5.70 (4.60 right, GCB / 7.79 right, NPV)
2020: R+1.75 (4.88 right, GCB / 6.20 right, NPV)

Average of R incumbents (sample size of 4, going by GCB): 4.41 right
Average of D incumbents (1): 4.14 left
Average of open seats (2): 2.91 right

Obviously the averages don't mean anything and 2016 and 2020 (the average of 4.74 right) are probably more important, but it's a nice thought exercise.

TL;DR: I see where you're coming from, especially if the GCB is R+7 or so.

Good, Beasley was the stronger candidate anyways.

Why?

She wants to spend more time fundraising than campaigning, which is always a surefire strategy. Just ask Senator Gideon.

[Trans Rights Are Human Rights]

He officially dropped out, and endorsed Beasley as well. Jackson is still pretty young, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run for higher office again soon.

https://twitter.com/jeffjacksonnc/status/1471481790577709070?s=21

Wow, I didn't realize how young Jeff Jackson actually looked like.

Jackson should run for governor in 2024. He would keep the Democratic streak alive.

And get his ass handed to him in the primary by Josh Stein? If he doesn't stay in his Senate seat, he probably goes for AG.

[Trans Rights Are Human Rights]

I mean, it was coming to this regardless, but...

[Trans Rights Are Human Rights]

Not the Senate race, but Jackson dropped into the 14th:

https://twitter.com/JeffJacksonNC/status/1497285671999967235

[Trans Rights Are Human Rights]

GOP primary goes from lean Budd to safe Budd.