Selzer/DMR/Bloomberg FINAL IOWA POLL: Trump +5, Clinton +3 (user search)
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  Selzer/DMR/Bloomberg FINAL IOWA POLL: Trump +5, Clinton +3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Selzer/DMR/Bloomberg FINAL IOWA POLL: Trump +5, Clinton +3  (Read 7315 times)
Sorenroy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,703
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -5.91

P P
« on: January 31, 2016, 12:33:21 AM »
« edited: January 31, 2016, 12:39:12 AM by Sorenroy »

I can't find the crosstabs for the polls, however I found this in the officially released numbers:
Quote
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As such, as long as the numbers for this year match up with elections in the past, this should be pretty accurate.
http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/r1OvZ1NeDjnY

I also have a fairly significant question regarding the meaning of late Jan-16 and early Jan-16. All of the polls have that weird wording to them when they are compared to the polls conducted earlier in the campaign cycle (all of those have specific dates). I do not question that these polls were conducted over the period of the 26th to the 29th, but what does that wording even mean?
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Sorenroy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,703
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -5.91

P P
« Reply #1 on: January 31, 2016, 01:51:46 AM »
« Edited: January 31, 2016, 02:06:09 AM by Sorenroy »

I can't find the crosstabs for the polls, however I found this in the officially released numbers:
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
As such, as long as the numbers for this year match up with elections in the past, this should be pretty accurate.
http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/r1OvZ1NeDjnY

I also have a fairly significant question regarding the meaning of late Jan-16 and early Jan-16. All of the polls have that weird wording to them when they are compared to the polls conducted earlier in the campaign cycle (all of those have specific dates). I do not question that these polls were conducted over the period of the 26th to the 29th, but what does that wording even mean?

She conducted two polls in January, 2016. To differentiate them, she termed the first one "early Jan 16" and the second one "late Jan 16."

Thank you. I guess I'm more tired than I thought (1:45 AM here); I thought it was referring to January 16th 2016...

Anyway, to add something new here, they polled more than just the three people running for president of the Democratic side for favorabilities. Here's a full list:

Person — Favorable-Unfavorable (Net)

Barack Obama — 90-9 (+81)
Bill Clinton — 86-11 (+75)
Bernie Sanders — 82-12 (+70)
Joe Biden — 81-11 (+70)
Hillary Clinton — 81-17 (+64)
John Kerry — 65-18 (+47)
Elizabeth Warren — 47-7 (+40)
Martin O'Malley — 46-13 (+33)
Michael Bloomberg — 17-26 (-9)

Obama is so widely liked, I wonder if his endorsement would be able to shift voters away from Sanders.

Edit: I emphasized the word "would" to make it clear that although he has not endorsed anyone (yet), I think that that endorsement would have an impact.
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