I tend to be a "trust the polls" type of guy, but it just makes no sense for Nelson to lose if the national environment is Democratic enough that Heitkamp, McCaskill and Donnelly all hang on. The idea that Scott is just a political juggernaut where he barely scraped by both of his elections in the context of massive GOP waves is... strange, to say the least. And the idea Nelson is so out of touch when he defeated a credible challenger by double digits in an only mildly Dem-leaning year is also counterintuitive (though I guess he could have lost touch in 6 years).
My guess is that Scott pulled a lead because he's been saturating the airwaves for the past few months, but this should change as the election draws near.
Scott's popularity has dramatically improved since 2010 and 2014.
