IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[cp]

Not to say that discussions about the Michigan constitution and the whereabouts of a former atlas poster aren't relevant to the Iowa Senate race, I wonder if we might talk about polling/turnout/anything else instead?

[cp]

So, I'm perfectly content to accept that IA is a GOP-leaning state and that Ernst could be 4 points ahead, but I'm confused by how we got here from 2 weeks ago when she was down by 5. Most of the news about the race that percolated up was neutral or positive for Greenfield. Did she lose late deciders because of partisan bias? That would suggest her leads a few weeks back were a chimera, but it wouldn't explain why things shifted in the past two weeks.