new hampshire 50%
pennsylvania 65%
virginia 50%
north carolina 40%
georgia 10%
florida 45%
west va. 10%
ohio 40%
michigan 75%
missouri 50%
indiana 42.5%
north dakota 40%
new mexico 75%
colorado 50%
Wow, according to J.J., this election's only a 50-50 tossup.
I'll just start by saying Obama has a less than 10% chance of taking states like North Dakota, West Virginia, and Georgia. His chances of taking Indiana and Missouri are a little better, probably around 25% each. Michigan, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are in the bag, about 90% each. New Mexico is around 80% and Colorado is about the same, perhaps a little less.
The other 4(NC, OH, VA, FL) may be irrelevant if the first 10 I mentioned hold to form, but Obama has a little better than a 50-50 chance in each, the strongest of which would be Virginia. The other 3 are as close to tossups as there are right now.
Of course, this is according to the data analyzed 10/22/08, almost 2 weeks from the election.
