FL/OH/PA-Quinnipiac: Obama in command

[RJ]

This is the second poll we've seen in Ohio that shows Obama with a lead outside the margin of error. I wouldn't think it would be so easy for Barrack but I didn't believe the polls in VA in 2006 until every single one of them pointed to the race being a tossup with Webb being the slightest of favorites. If this doesn't change in 1-2 weeks I think we have to put OH into the leaning Obama column.

In Obama's favor, my .02 on this "bounce" he received by unofficially officially being named the nominee may be more permanent than people think. Bush's approval numbers are terrible and the party now has a nominee to unite it. In contrast, as far as the summer being better for Democrats heading into the campaign season Kerry led Bush 48-46 nationally at this time 4 years ago. Let's not forget Dukakis' meltdown in 1988 or even Carter's ability to nearly snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. 1976 and 1988 were 2 elections the deck was stacked in favor of the Democrats and they almost blew both.

[RJ]

Or if he taps into the traditionally blue collar ethnic Catholic voters in areas like mine. Believe me, these people are not happy with Obama as the nominee.

McCain has fewer problems with that faction than Obama does with the group I mentioned.

Are these the voters you're referring to that Obama has more problems than McCain has with the GOP base? I think your analysis could go either way, but there should be a lot more to Pennsylvania than this type of vote.

[RJ]

Are these the voters you're referring to that Obama has more problems than McCain has with the GOP base?

Yes, those are the types. I know plenty of very partisan Democrats in my precinct that have sworn not to vote for Obama. This precinct went for Kerry by at least ten points. Obama cannot afford to lose these areas.

PA has a similar problem for the Republican party that they have in IL and WA. 1 county speaks for the entire state. In IL and WA, Cook an King counties respectively were won by both Gore and Kerry by a wider margin of votes than they took the entire state. If not for those counties those states would be solidly in the Republican column. In PA it's Philadelphia County. It stands to reason that if voters in that county show up on election day it looks good for the Democratic party.

"Catholic blue collar ethnic voters?" What other types of voters are there in PA? What's the breakdown look like? I just gave a hint by citing Philadelphia. There's more to an electorate than what's in your city, town, environment, social circle, or whatever and there's more to political beliefs than the ones that 1 individual has.

[RJ]

Because I never said that people were telling me that they would vote for him. I based it on Santorum's history of coming back and Casey's history of collapsing in big races.

Casey won that race by almost 18%. Any prediction that Santorum could have possibly won that race would be completely partisan in nature. I'm not so sure I'd be flaunting that logic to make my point.

I also have a hard time believing Obama is going to have problems in Philadelphia county. I suppose it will be interesting to compare his numbers to Kerry or Gore. My instincts tell me he'll do better than either of those 2.