Republicans have likely pickups in Iowa and Virginia and some not so likely chances in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Michigan, and Illinois. The Denocrats are virtually assured New York and have fairly decent chances at Massachusetts, Maryland, Ohio, Alabama, Arkansas, and California. The Democrats lucked out this year with a number of unpopular GOP Governors in liberal states coming up for re-election.
The Dems did get lucky this year. I think Virginia is definitly the Republicans best shot and New York is all but over, but I'd say Ohio, Massachusetts, and California are a lot more likely to flip than Iowa. If the GOP had anything going in Illinois, Blagojovich would be finished. I think the Republicans also have a good shot in Michigan if they nominate the right person.
Alabama a likely Democratic pickup? What's going on there?
