Guaranteed pickup of governorships for Democrats?

[they don't love you like i love you]

I was thinking this yesterday. There aren't any really vulnerable Democratic governors. A few where the GOP could've won had they not fumbled on candidates, but they did (I also must laugh at how badly the Michigan GOP flubbed this year, for both the Governor AND Senate race. Good for us though.)

On the other hand, the New York race is pretty much over already. So we're guaranteed at least one pickup. There are a few more vulnerable GOP ones. Can the GOP possibly pull a pickup? Even winning one Dem governorship is a longshot, two seems impossible.

[Virginian87]

The gubernatorial race in Virginia is far from over, and right now it's a dead heat.  If Jerry Kilgore wins, Virginia becomes a Republican pickup. 

[TheresNoMoney]

Nothing is guaranteed (although Spitzer as governor is pretty damn close).

As far as Republicans defeating an incumbent Democrat, Illinois is probably their best shot.

[WalterMitty]

massachusetts is looking good for the dems.

[TheresNoMoney]

Iowa is looking good for Republicans (although there is no incumbent in that race).

[Virginian87]

Iowa is looking good for Republicans (although there is no incumbent in that race).

Who are the candidates?

[TheresNoMoney]

Jim Nussle for the Republicans and so far, I don't think there is a solid Democratic candidate.

Chet Culver may or may not run for the Democrats.

[Jake]

Republicans have likely pickups in Iowa and Virginia and some not so likely chances in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Michigan, and Illinois. The Denocrats are virtually assured New York and have fairly decent chances at Massachusetts, Maryland, Ohio, Alabama, Arkansas, and California. The Democrats lucked out this year with a number of unpopular GOP Governors in liberal states coming up for re-election.

[tinman64]

If Arnold's propositions fail in the CA special election - or at least if most of them fail - he could be considered just about done.  His ratings are still abysmal here. 

[Virginian87]

We have a chance in Alabama?  Who's the candidate?

[AuH2O]

Virginia and Iowa lean GOP. If Republicans can pull something out in PA and IL I doubt the Democrats will net a gain. The GOP also has an outside shot in WI.

For all the speculation, NY is the only race Dems clearly have, and no others are even strong leaners yet. A lot will depend on the candidates, which in many cases is unknown at least on one side.

My guess right now is a wash; both sides picking up 3.

[Jake]

We have a chance in Alabama?  Who's the candidate?

Lucy Baxley the Lt. Governor could beat Moore or Riley.

[Virginian87]

Virginia and Iowa lean GOP. If Republicans can pull something out in PA and IL I doubt the Democrats will net a gain. The GOP also has an outside shot in WI.

I agree with you on Iowa (for now), but Virginia's gubernatorial race is a toss-up.  I don't see a clear winner so far in this race.

[Moooooo]

I agree with you on Iowa (for now), but Virginia's gubernatorial race is a toss-up.  I don't see a clear winner so far in this race.

The latest polls show Kilgore winning by a margin greater than the MOE.  It beginning to look like its his race to lose.

[AuH2O]

Indeed. In fact, only 1 poll has shown it even recently-- since that was M-D, it got a lot of attention, but within their MOE even their data was consistent with a marginal Kilgore lead.

[Virginian87]

OK.  Just saw the poll.  What did Kilgore do to strengthen his lead?

[Sam Spade]

OK.  Just saw the poll.  What did Kilgore do to strengthen his lead?

Best guess right now is that the Mason-Dixon poll was an outlier. 

It matched none of the polls that came before and didn't match the two that have come afterwards.  All of these polls have tended to show similar results, Kilgore up by about 5%-6%.

If another poll came out that showed the Mason-Dixon numbers, I'd be much more likely to believe it, but as of now this seems like the prudent decision.

The range for the candidates appears to be roughly 44%-48% for Kilgore, 38%-43% for Kaine, 2%-6% for Potts, not counting in the Mason-Dixon poll where Potts was much higher and Kilgore was much lower.  I'd say roughly 8%-12% of the electorate is still truly undecided, and probably a little more than that is possibly persuadable by the different sides.  We'll see.

Here is a list of the polls done so far:

Date Kaine [D] Kilgore [R] Potts Sample MoE Source Lead
3/9/05 36% 46% 6% 493 RV 5 Survey USA Kilgore +10
4/14/05 36% 44% 5% 500 LV 5 Rasmussen Kilgore +8
5/16/05 40% 44% 5% 575 RV 4 Survey USA Kilgore +4
6/15/05 40% 46% 2% 500 LV 5 Rasmussen Kilgore +6
6/29/05 39% 49% 5% 494 LV 5 Survey USA Kilgore +10
7/12/05 41% 47% 4% 500 LV 5 Rasmussen Kilgore +6
7/21/05 38% 37% 9% 625 LV 4 Mason-Dixon Kaine +1
8/3/05 39% 45% 5% 500 LV 5 Rasmussen Kilgore +6
8/10/05 43% 48% 3% 568 LV 4 Survey USA Kilgore +5

[TheresNoMoney]

The latest polls show Kilgore winning by a margin greater than the MOE.  It beginning to look like its his race to lose.

True, but it's still fairly early and Kaine is well within striking distance. The race won't really heat up until after Labor Day and Mark Warner hasn't done any real campaigning for Kaine yet.

[Ben.]

I agree with you on Iowa (for now), but Virginia's gubernatorial race is a toss-up.  I don't see a clear winner so far in this race.

The latest polls show Kilgore winning by a margin greater than the MOE.  It beginning to look like its his race to lose.

Remember that Warner’s victory was base on rural, culturally conservative, generally republican voters. Most folks in VA won’t have given this race any real though as yet and are just saying “Democrat” or “Republican”, it would be interesting to know if the polls are prompting by party id as well as name(?), Kaine’s clinging dead close to Warner in VA and as these rural voters begin, along with the rest of the state identify Kaine with Warner as well as being a Democrat I think you’ll see Kaine’s numbers go up.

Kilgore is not that good a candidate but the laws of political gravity favour him in the state, though as I say once many of these “Warner Republicans” begin to give the race some serious though closer to polling day Kaine’s number may well pick up which would probably make it pretty much a dead heat going into polling day.      

[TheresNoMoney]

Ben, are you voting in this race? Absentee?

[Ben Meyers]

How's the race in Alabama going?

[AuH2O]

Also note Warner led the whole way, he didn't surge at the end. There's no reason to expect that here.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Illegal immigration made an impact in Northern Virginia where a gang of illegal immigrants (who have been arrested before BUT NOT DEPORTED) are accused of some really horrible crimes of late.

[A18]

Illegal immigrants who commit violent crimes of any kind should be executed.

[RJ]

Republicans have likely pickups in Iowa and Virginia and some not so likely chances in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Michigan, and Illinois. The Denocrats are virtually assured New York and have fairly decent chances at Massachusetts, Maryland, Ohio, Alabama, Arkansas, and California. The Democrats lucked out this year with a number of unpopular GOP Governors in liberal states coming up for re-election.

The Dems did get lucky this year. I think Virginia is definitly the Republicans best shot and New York is all but over, but I'd say Ohio, Massachusetts, and California are a lot more likely to flip than Iowa. If the GOP had anything going in Illinois, Blagojovich would be finished. I think the Republicans also have a good shot in Michigan if they nominate the right person.

Alabama a likely Democratic pickup? What's going on there?