New Zealand Elections

[PADem]

For those who are interested I've made a little guide to the parties contesting the election (September 17th).

Labour Party

New Zealand's current governing party, led by Helen Clark. A broadly Center-Left party, that has its roots in the Trade Union movement. Roughly similar to the Australian and British Labour Parties, and economically somewhat similar to the Democrats in the U.S and the SPD in Germany.

Socially Liberal, has the worlds first transexual M.P as a senior caucus member, and two openly gay cabinet ministers. Has passed contentious liberal legislation including the Prostitution Reform Act (decriminalising prostitution and offering a degree of protection to them) and the Civil Union Bill, allowing Gay and Lesbian couples the same rights as married couples, minus adoption rights.

Seen as the party of students (is offering to write-off interest on Student Loans), the poor and lower-middle class.

National

A Center-Right party, that economically is similar to the Republican Party/Bush Administration. Socially is not as far right as the Republicans, or in fact Australia's governing Coalition, but is comparable to Germany's CDU and some elements of the British Conservative Party. Seen as more pro-buisness than Labour, and wants to offer broad tax cuts (including to the highest earners which labour does not). Supportive of the United States defense policy & Iraq war. Would  purchase strike aircraft for the Air Force, and would likely eventually rescind New Zealand's nuclear ban and restore ANZUS ties. Led by the former Reserve Bank Governor (like Greenspan here in the U.S).

A.C.T

As far as I know the worlds only libertarian party with elected members at a national level, ACT is by far the most business friendly party. They are for a low, flat tax and a large slashing of the companies tax rate. Socially they are broad, some MP's are liberal leaning but most are on par with National or to the right.
ACT does not hold any electorate seats so must gain 5% to stay in parliament, which on current polling would not be likely. National has indicated ACT would be their most likely Coalition partner.

The Greens

Typical Green Party. Broadly left wing, more so than labour. As usual Environmental causes are high on their agenda, but social liberalism is at the for (they are very pro-choice, pro-gay rights etc). The Greens are known for calling for the decriminalisation of Marijuana. Seen as Labours most likely coalition ally. Will pick up 5-10 seats

New Zealand First

Neo-conservative / Nationalist type party that proposes huge increases in Law & Order and military spending. Vehemently campagining against immigration, and very critical of Muslim elements within New Zealand. Will pick up 5-10 seats. More likely aligned with National in any coalition.

United Future

Basically a centrist former Labour M.P, who the party relies upon for their continued survival as he holds a rock solid majority on his electorate, and a boatload of fundamentalist christians. Expected to gain anywhere from 1 (the leader) - 6 seats depending on performance. Right-wing in general, but has worked well with Labour on several issues.

The Maori Party

Led by a former Maori Labour M.P, who holds her electorate seat. Because of this they will likely pick up up to 6 seats including the 4 other seats reserved specifically for Maori. Very Pro-Maori and populist (obviously) and somewhat left of Labour economically. Would be a possibly coalition partner with Labour, but would the their last option

Destiny New Zealand

Fundamentalist Christians. New Zealanders don't take well to evangelicals, so the party is considered a joke by most, and their signs are apparently being stolen, destroyed around the country. They don't stand a snowflakes chance in hell of getting into parliament.

[PADem]

any polls?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/feature/index.cfm?c_id=1500936

There's a bunch at the above link.

It's pretty close and could go either way, but most polls have a Labour-Green coalition with a razor thin majority looking likely.

[PADem]

Labour will win, with greens support and possibly a couple of other seatsneeded, perhaps provided by the Maoris?

Possibly so. The Maori party are on track to win 3 (perhaps 4) of the seats reserved specifically for Maori, so will have a presence in parliament, and create an overhang as well.

[PADem]

When the three biggest issues in the campaign are tax cuts, maori rights and...Australia...you know that the country doesnt matter much

I love the fact Australia is a megasuperpower in the South Pacific

Lol. Australia a campaign issue! That'll be the day!

[PADem]

When the three biggest issues in the campaign are tax cuts, maori rights and...Australia...you know that the country doesnt matter much

I love the fact Australia is a megasuperpower in the South Pacific

And I know you Victorians watch some weird sports (i.e not Rugby), but I'm sure you heard how the game went. Go the All Blacks!

[PADem]

I'd like to know who the world's first trans-sexual MP is.


I often gawk at how Kiwis think that they are progressive in terms of gay rights, when they wont even let them adopt. Silly kiwis. Even if public support is not in favour of gay marriages, it wouldn't really matter in a country like New Zealand, as once they are legal, public support will quickly change. That's what happened here.

Her name is Georgina Beyer. She was the Mayor of Wairarapa (small town of ~25000), and was elected (from a constituency) with a solid majority. She's now a list candidate. As for adoption, I agree, but I think the government wanted to take it one step at a time. I doubt the bill would have passed (Civil Unions that is) had adoption been part of it.

I think in terms of these kind of issues in New Zealand, its not that New Zealand is particularly liberal or conservative, its more that Kiwi's are a nation of 'not carers'

For example,

Nobody cares about Abortion (it's almost never debated)
Nobody cares about Gay Marriage (except some random Christians, and most people support it just to annoy them)
Nobody cares about Gun Control (nobody needs guns anyway - police are unarmed)

[PADem]

I'd like to know who the world's first trans-sexual MP is.

Whoever it is, they should be barred from serving in government. We don't need children seeing that type of crap in government.

I've actually met her and despite my disapproval of that sort of thing she is apparently a very effective M.P. If she has been voted in, and isn't a criminal or something then why not. Your post above is akin to racism. Have you become a skinhead or something?

[PADem]

Racism? How is transsexualism a race? I don't want disgusting things like that in public office where they can spout their trash about that being normal.

I said 'akin to racism'. That means like, or similar to. Furthermore, she doesn't make any statements on the topic of transexualism.

[PADem]

The very fact that "she" is in Parliament and "her" status is known to the public is bad enough. Making speeches on it would be far worse.

Why? Whats wrong with diversity in legislatures?

Do I disagree with the choices she's made? Certainly

But do I think she should be excluded from the political process for them? Never, and I would consider that a gross perversion of democracy.

[PADem]

Why would you disagree? So what if she changed her gender. It's not her fault she was born as a man.

I believe that risky surgery for a lifestyle choice is at best a bad idea. Unlike Jake, however I respect her right to participate in the political process and be shown respect, and not subjected to being called f'd in the head for the choices she's made.

Regardless, this thread was supposed to be about discussing the pending election, which, just recently has seen as swing to the Center Right national party putting them in a good position just two weeks out.

[PADem]

Nobody cares about Gun Control (nobody needs guns anyway - police are unarmed)

Okay so let me get this straight. Nobody owns a gun and the police are unharmed? Holy sh**t if I ever want to get into a life of crime all I have to do is go to NZ with a few guns.

Well certainly a few people own guns, but mainly farmers and hunters - there aren't many people who own a gun for protection. The police are unarmed - that is they don't carry a sidearm, but most police cars will have a gun locked in the back and their are Armed Offenders Squads (pretty much S.W.A.T) in each district.

[PADem]

NZ actually has some serious crime problems, mostly robbery.

Yes there is a deal of minor crime (burglary) and white collar crime etc, but violent crime isn't as much of an issue as it is the U.S as a whole, or in Australia.

[PADem]

Yep, they send all their crims over here

Remember, it was Australia which was founded as a Penal Colony.......

For all we know Hugh your ancestors could be mass murderers.

[PADem]

Any recent polls?

Yep.

Latest poll

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=1&ObjectID=10345484

Shows National (the opposition with a 6 point lead over labour).

Even if they do win more seats than Labour, I think that Labour will likely sneak in, via a Green + Progressives Coalition.

[PADem]

Interesting. Seems as though the polls are bouncing all over the place...
I'd take a guess and say that while who winds up as largest party is up in the air, Labour are more likely to end up in Government.

I'd agree. However if the leader of ACT (the libertarian party) wins the right-leaning electorate (Epsom - a richer part of Auckland) then ACT could get into parliament despite not hitting the 5% threshold and thus through the election to National.

[PADem]

Well today is polling day. I voted myself by faxing my voting papers in for the Mighty Labour Party.

It looks like it will be down to the wire none the less. Will post updates when they are in, but there is still 7 hours to go...

[PADem]

http://www.tvnz.co.nz/view/news_minisite_index_skin/news_election_2005_group

Results available at above link. National and Labour are neck and neck with 55% counted.

[PADem]

Very interesting. Formerly fractured right has basically reassembled.
Party Share (previous) projected seats

National 40.28 (21.08) 49
Labour 40.06 (41.32) 49
NZ First 5.83 (10.64)7
Green 5.15 (6.51) 6
Maori Party 1.84 (0.00) 4
United Future NZ 2.77 (6.84) 3
ACT 1.51 (7.09) 2
Progressive Coalition 1.26 (1.74) 2

5379 of 6216 polling places counted (86.53%)

What government can we expect on these figures?

Well its changed a bit since then, Labour has 50 to Nationals 49 now. and Progressive Coalition will only get one seat

Currently the news networks are predicting a Labour (50) + Progessives (1) Coalition, with support on confidence supply and demand votes from the Greens (6), Maori Party (4) and United Future (3). That brings the total to 64 votes, out of a parliament of 122. The reason for the overhang (122 as opposed to 120) is that the Maori party has won four electorate seats (4 of the 7 reserved for Maori) yet get only 2% (enough for 2 seats) of the party vote.

United Future is in theory a center-right party, but the leader has said he will support on confidence, supply and demand, the party with the most seats.

[PADem]

Veeeeerrrrrrrrryyyyyyy close... first I heard was that National had won; the lead seems to have seesawed as much as the polls did.

Electorate results are here: http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electoratestatus.html

Seems as though Peters lost. A couple of seats split their tickets.

Yes he did. Peters has held Tauranga for 21 years. In New Zealand Tauranga is nicknamed 'Gods Waiting Room' because it has so many old & retired people. It is these groups that give Peters & his anti-immigration/slightly nationalist party 'New Zealand First' their support, so that is a shocking loss.

Indeed a couple of seats did split their tickets. A lot of my relatives, who live in the electorate of Northcote (a suburban seat on Aucklands North Shore) voted for the National candidate (who won quite well), but gave their party vote to Labour.

[PADem]

In New Zealand Tauranga is nicknamed 'Gods Waiting Room' because it has so many old & retired people.

Ah... like Eastbourne over here... (and exactly the same nickname is used...)

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Any other upsets?

Yes. Labours sole Farmer/Rural MP, Jim Sutton lost Aoraki (a vast rural electorate)

Cabinet Minister Rick Barker lost Tukituki (also Rural)

and Deputy Speaker Ann Hartley lost Northcote (allthough Northcote is a swing seat and always has been and not such an upset)

[PADem]

New Zealand is a fairly f'ed up nation politically. Certainly a Scandanavian style hell hole with less hot women.

You've gotta be kidding.

[PADem]

Jake, you're always saying i'm clueless, but at least I'm trying to learn about US politics rather then just jumping in and saying stupid, incorrect things all the time. If you want to know about Kiwi politics, i'm sure people would be willing to teach you, but you know sh**t-all as is.

A nation gives their versions of Indians designated seats in Congress, ban all fire arms, don't even have police carry them, and elect shemales to Parliament. Yeah, at least Australia lends some manner of sanity to the area as we can hope that people like you are in a minority down there, mate.

1) Firearms aren't banned. And they are relatively easy to get, but very few people have them.

2) There is a Squad called Armed Offenders in every region (similar to SWAT) for the rare armed incidents that arise

3) Yes a transsexual was elected to parliament. Emphasis on ELECTED... Who cares.

[PADem]

they held government with the greens the term before last, I know; I'd expect that'd be their first port of call, along with NZ first.

Well they weren't in a formal coalition, it was just the greens supported them on supply and demand.

Peter Dunne the leader of united is likely to be more appealing to Labour than NZ First. However Dunne will not support the government if the Greens are in Cabinet, so it will likely be Labour + Anderton with Maori Party, United Future and Greens supporting on confidence and supply.