Let’s talk about Gavin Newsom 2024.

[heatcharger]

This is a thread to watch the potential candidacy of Gavin Newsom (D-CA).

He’s running. It’s just a question of 2024 or 2028. A few points:

Veto of gender affirmation bill

https://twitter.com/abc/status/1705719244648755460?s=46&t=J_equ31A3oC9D3XQGF...

This veto in a vacuum is not all that significant. But I know this is the work of someone who wants to win elections outside of California. He faces potential pushback from activists in the base, but a Democrat risking that is a Democrat trying to win independents in swing states.

Candid COVID talk

A few weeks ago he spoke the most candidly I’ve heard any Democrat in power talk about the COVID regime. Source

He still dodged accountability for his actions, but he voiced a mainstream viewpoint on how the pandemic went. While lockdown fans still defend the strictest restrictions, even many liberals acknowledge there were some things that went too far. Or went on too long. That’s how a lot of people feel, but they’d prefer to just move on entirely. By saying “we would’ve done things differently” he’s aligning himself with how most people feel about the pandemic.

Regular media appearances on Fox News

He’s relentlessly attacked DeSantis for months. So of course he’s at the GOP debate — while GOP politicians often criticize blue state governance, Democratic governors rarely respond. You don’t hear Josh Shapiro criticizing Mississippi’s performance. Newsom is different. He’s gone after DeSantis and Florida’s record on Covid, abortion and education among other things. He’s making the argument against putting Republicans in power — something California politicians don’t really need to do.

He was also just on Hannity after the GOP debate that oil production is actually up:

https://twitter.com/acyn/status/1707244116432568595?s=46&t=J_equ31A3oC9D3XQG...

That’s a signal to independents that he isn’t too far left on energy. Again, these are moves of someone trying to win Pennsylvania, not California.

Upcoming debate with Ron DeSantis

https://twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1706382903083499560?s=46&t=J_equ31A3...

I have a feeling he’s gonna win that debate. He knows DeSantis has a wooden personality. More importantly, I have a feeling he knows what Democrats are itching for — and what Biden isn’t delivering on. Democrats want a leader. Biden’s age is a proxy issue for how really people feel about him. People think he’s weak. People think he’s not in charge. Leave the partisan online bubbles and you’ll hear plenty of Democrats question Biden’s presence.

In the same way Trump emotionally satisfies Republicans, Obama and Clinton still have a stranglehold on the Democratic Party. And Gavin Newsom is a political salesman in the mold of the three men I just mentioned. The logistics of getting him to be the 2024 Democratic nominee are a little hazy, but the shadow campaign is definitely underway.

[heatcharger]

He comes across as very sleazy but he is much smarter than Biden and surprisingly a bit more willing to concede on points where dems are not doing well.

True. Biden and Newsom are night and day in terms of oratory skills at this point.

We’ll see how loud the calls get for Biden to step aside. People like David Axelrod and James Carville are starting to get nervous about another 14 months of this.

[heatcharger]

His stated rationale for vetoing the trans rights bill is that he doesn't believe it's the place of the legislator to write legislation and positioning yourself to the right of the median American for nonsensical reasons is not a move you make if you want to win a democratic primary. While he's certainly going to run in 2028, he's not going to be a major player in that election. This is just a repeat of this forum's delusion that George Allen was unbeatable in 2008

I don't think the median American thinks that parents should lose custody of their children because they don't want to affirm gender confusion.

SWE is the type of person who thought “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach” was a good thing to say out loud as a politician.

[heatcharger]

I know GOPers want to make it happen to embarrass Biden and play the "slick, liberal coastal elitist" card against Newsom, but it's not happening.

The president is a product. Ten years ago I would've definitely said Newsom was too slimy to become president, but he's become a seasoned media player. He was downright chummy with Hannity last night -- this is a guy who knows how to work the media. He's an upper class California man with charisma -- this is natural to him. Biden doesn't even rate in this regard, certainly not at his age.

When Democrats are complaining about the media they're losing. Obama understood this. Newsom lets liberals go back on offense.

And the SF baggage doesn't seem that bad to me. For various reasons, I think Newsom will win landslide numbers with suburban women. Trump vs Biden looks like a cakewalk compared to Trump vs Newsom.

[heatcharger]

Anyway, this gets more ridiculous by the week as the calendar gets later and later.

People know that Oct 16th is Nevada's filing deadline, right? The first in the nation? Why are people still speculating about candidates jumping in at this absurdly late date when he's not even taking the steps he'll need to do to even be capable of running and getting on the ballot?

You realize if Biden announces his retirement the media will totally ignore the early states right? No, the media will not declare RFK Jr. or Marianne Williamson the front runner under any circumstances.

Newsom can easily win enough delegates in the event Biden steps aside. More importantly, the Democratic Primary is taking place in people’s hearts and he’s winning.

[heatcharger]

So you're saying he can only win if Biden steps aside, something that has about a 0% chance of happening?

Bro, it's not a 0% chance. No it isn't. The actuarial tables don't support this.

Leaving that aside, don't act like it's impossible for an 80 year old, who's a lifelong Democratic Party team player (and has much less of an ego at this point) to step aside in favor of new blood. It could happen. Barack Obama will have to arrange a few meetings but it could happen. Yes it could.

[heatcharger]

Biden - both sundowning old racists with a weak grasp on reality and an inability to speak coherently. Not sure what the rationale could be for anyone else.

#TeamGavin

[heatcharger]

Biden - both sundowning old racists with a weak grasp on reality and an inability to speak coherently. Not sure what the rationale could be for anyone else.

#TeamGavin

You're really going to be the guy who can't imagine someone would change their opinions over the course of a few years? You of all people? I knew you were extremely dumb but damn

Your post exemplifies why Biden is so weak. All his biggest hacks now are people who didn’t want him or outright thought he was a racist sundowning idiot 4 years ago.

You’ll line up right behind Gavin when the time comes. Beautiful to watch.

[heatcharger]

I am going to be relentlessly bumping this thread over the next few months to make fun of you as this proves increasingly ridiculous. You know that, right?

Sounds good. You've got a long way to go with the old guy though.

[heatcharger]

GAVIN makes another pivot to the center:

https://twitter.com/zavalaa/status/1708305294194012515?s=46&t=J_equ31A3oC9D3...

Newsom is adding fiscal responsibility and common sense to his arsenal. He’s getting stronger…

[heatcharger]

Newsom Veto Watch

Newsom vetoes bill that would have decriminalized psychedelic mushrooms

California governor vetoes bill that would have banned caste discrimination

Also vetoes the "Social Housing Act":

https://twitter.com/hannahcwiley/status/1710745815860613200

We're starting to see Newsom build a platform appealing to donors and independents. Money will not be a problem for this campaign.

[heatcharger]

Normal governor behavior, nothing to see here:

https://twitter.com/gavinnewsom/status/1715056811936739778?s=46&t=J_equ31A3o...

Newsom is preparing himself to handle foreign policy issues on Day 1.

[heatcharger]

Really quickly: you know who else is going to Israel right now?

Governor Kathy Hochul, D-NY.

Hochul is the governor for 1.6 million Jews, literally more Jews than in California (or Tel Aviv and Jerusalem combined).

Or maybe, just maybe, this IS an ordinary thing governors do?

Is it? Governors typically make international trips for trade missions, not right after a major terrorist attack. Maybe we can compile some data on governor travel, but the only other governor I can think of who's recently visited another country is Ron DeSantis. He's technically running for president.

[heatcharger]

15 years ago a black community organizer named Barack Hussein Obama took the nation by storm. When people see you as a leader it doesn’t matter where you come from.

It’s ironic progressives are concern trolling about being painted as “coastal liberal elites”. This same type of conservative thinking was pushed by Hillary 2008 and Hillary 2016 against their opponents. Now obviously, progressives have ideological issues with Newsom. The good news for Democrats is these same people will, no matter what, fill out their ballots for Gavin when the time comes.

To the contrary of what my Democrat friends here think, Newsom would be an extremely difficult candidate for Republicans to beat.

[heatcharger]

Where’s Kathy Hochul at?

https://twitter.com/gavinnewsom/status/1717221998756352228?s=46&t=J_equ31A3o...

Newsom is developing relationships with key Chinese leaders. He’s now a major player in foreign policy. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a meeting with Kim Jong-Un next.

[heatcharger]

To the contrary of what my Democrat friends here think, Newsom would be an extremely difficult candidate for Republicans to beat.

He is objectively an electoral underperformer. Winning CA by 20% in 2022 while Whitmer won MI by 11% is not good.

The 2021 recall is much more significant to look at when looking at Newsom’s ability to campaign under pressure.

Whitmer is irrelevant and would never win a primary against Newsom.

[heatcharger]

jfern bringing up stuff from 20 years ago is a positive signal for Newsom.

I do agree with the consensus that he's not a great GE candidate in a vacuum (the swing/red state guys would be better), but I don't think he's bad enough to be disqualifying and realistically he'd be facing off against either Trump round 3, Trump's insane future VP, or one of the losers who can't even get 10% in a GOP primary rn.

I’d go further and say he’d be a heavy favorite against DeSantis. The two are set to debate on TV next month — afterwards you’ll start hearing a lotta Democrats wonder out loud: why can’t we have this guy?

[heatcharger]

Newsom may lose, but not because he’s an "electoral underperformer." Bill Clinton underperformed badly in 1980 and still won twelve and sixteen years later with two of the most brazenly slick, womanizing, shallow campaigns America has ever seen. Granted, it would have been closer if not for Perot (sorry, Alben/Frank), but still, this stuff doesn’t matter as much as some think it does. (And sometimes it helps because you learn from your past mistakes.)

It might be hard for the average Atlas poster to relate to this, but Newsom has a lot of the qualities that actually matter in presidential elections — he’s good-looking, fit, can project strength/leadership, would probably give off alpha vibes on a debate stage, triggers the other side, combative, good at shifting the focus away from his record, etc. DeSantis would have benefited from this as well if he didn’t allow Trump to emasculate him. Too bad..

It was funny to see BRTD in the other thread seriously say Newsom’s infidelity would hurt him.

[heatcharger]

It was funny to see BRTD in the other thread seriously say Newsom’s infidelity would hurt him.

And you seriously think his Covid restrictions wouldn't hurt him? They went well beyond any other governor in the country and thus were evidentially completely unnecessary.

Honestly the irony of you telling me this is great.

We've moved on from that whole thing. It is what it is.

[heatcharger]

heatcharger Atlas Icon ★★★★★ Posts: 4,444

BREAKING: Biden announces he's dropping out, citing age and need to defeat Trump « on: April 1, 2024 1:09:25 pm » https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/01/us/politics/biden-drops-out-2024.html Congratulations to President Biden on leaving the arena. It looks like Gavin Newsom will announce his campaign shortly.

The Mikado Moderators ★★★★★ Posts: 50,021

BREAKING: Biden announces he's dropping out, citing age and need to defeat Trump « on: April 1, 2024 1:09:25 pm » Um, guys, why is anyone still talking about Gavin Newsom as a potential candidate? How will he possibly get enough delegates to win the nomination?? This isn't 1968 anymore! This is now obviously a race between Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson to face Donald Trump this November.

[heatcharger]

A new hypothetical primary poll came out showing Biden polling his lowest against Newsom in a head-to-head:

https://twitter.com/usa_polling/status/1721618085579235329?s=46&t=J_equ31A3o...
Team Biden is also starting to take aim at Newsom:

The Hill: Fetterman takes dig at Newsom over White House speculation

Fetterman told the crowd there are two Democrats “running for president right now” in addition to Biden.
“One is a congressman from Minnesota, the other is the governor of California, but only one has the guts to announce it,” Fetterman told the crowd, per NBC News.

The shadow primary is heating up.

[heatcharger]

Newsom received lots of media attention from APEC last week. Lost in the discussions about San Francisco was Biden directly praising Newsom, recognizing his potential:

https://twitter.com/breaking911/status/1725282938709737526?s=46&t=J_equ31A3o...

Also, the Newsom-DeSantis debate is set for November 30th. Fox decided against a live audience to make sure DeSantis isn’t too embarrassed, but Newsom will still get plenty of media impressions. Expect plenty of 30-second clips designed for X and Facebook consumption.

MSNBC Democrats are gonna enjoy seeing him.

[heatcharger]

https://twitter.com/brodiesmom68/status/1726676556607901777?s=46&t=J_equ31A3...

[heatcharger]

This is why I suggested that Biden should challenge each of the serious Republican candidates to a 1-on-1 debate before the primaries start.

Unfortunately, my friend, this forum is allergic to outside the box thinking.

Biden is also significantly diminished as a speaker as most 81 year old men are. Democrats would've welcomed Obama randomly debate Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry or Michelle Bachmann because they knew he would've taken them to task. Democrats used to be confident in their nominees. Not so much right now.

[heatcharger]

With regards to Newsom:

Democrats are falling in love. Beautiful to watch.