Can someone explain Alleghany County, VA?

[heatcharger]

I've been meaning to post about this...



On first glance this county is rather uninteresting -- it's an Appalachian county that voted for Trump, Gillespie, and Stewart by huge margins. But a deeper look at its voting record is more curious, especially in 2012:

2018-SEN: Stewart +27
2017-GOV: Gillespie +32
2016-PRES: Trump +37
2014-SEN: Warner +9
2013-GOV: Cuccinelli +9
2013-LT-GOV: Northam +12
2012-PRES: Romney +3 (!!)
2012-SEN: Allen +4
2009-GOV: Deeds +23
2009-LT-GOV: Wagner +13
2008-PRES: McCain +2
2008-SEN: Warner +50
2006-SEN: Webb +4
2005-GOV: Kaine +10
2005-LT-GOV: Byrne +5
2004-PRES: Bush +11
2001-GOV: Warner +19
2001-LT-GOV: Kaine +9
2000-PRES: Bush +12
2000-SEN: Allen +11
1997-GOV: Gilmore +15
1996-PRES: Clinton +8 (Perot 12%)
1996-SEN: Warner +11
1994-SEN: Ollie North +4
1993-GOV: Allen +33
1992-PRES: Clinton +2 (Perot 17%)
1988-PRES: H.W. Bush +5
1984-PRES: Reagan +23
1980-PRES: Carter +5
1976-PRES: Carter +16
1972-PRES: Nixon +40
1968-PRES: Nixon +17 (Wallace 31%)

In some ways, the county reflects similar voting behavior to other counties in the region. They gave Wallace a large share. They supported Republicans in victory during the 20th century (though randomly for Ollie North in 1994?). They were quite willing to support Carter, Clinton, and a handful of other Democrats at the local level, namely Mark Warner. Needless to say it has also drifted significantly to the right in recent years.

But the 2012 presidential results in this county jump out. Unlike neighboring counties in West Virginia which saw massive swings, Alleghany barely swung to Romney if at all. It also voted for Romney at a smaller margin than George Allen that year, which is unlike most other counties in the western half of the state. That's pretty odd, even if this county is more in line with upper Shenandoah counties rather than SW VA.

I'm not very familiar with the subcultures of this area. There isn't any kind of college presence to note, and the racial demographics are boring (96% white). Though I suspect there has been brain drain and die-off, as the % of people in the county between 20-44 went from 31% in 2000 to 26% in 2010, as well as going from 15.7% of the population being over 65 in 2000 to 20.3% in 2010.

I'm not really sure that fully explains the weirdness of this county though, especially that 2012 result. Anyone have any ideas?

[heatcharger]

The county is entirely within George Washington and Jefferson National Forest and seems to be pretty heavy for tourism: http://www.visitalleghanyhighlands.com/main/index.php

True, tourism has mostly been a favorable industry to Democrats. And the Shenandoah Valley had relatively minor swings in 2012 as well, but this county was basically static, and neighboring counties in the Monongahela National Forest in WV saw pretty big swings towards Romney and supported him by ~25 points. Obviously state politics have an influence and megacoattails aren't too real, but it's still odd.