Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Omega21]

First the Taliban, now this...

I fear the Simulation might completely break soon, call IT support, now!

https://twitter.com/Ahmadinejad1956/status/1499088073115811848

[Omega21]

Seems the Russians are now somewhat effective in certain smaller areas

Could depend on the Unit composition and morale, or maybe it's due to the more forceful approach they've switched to?

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1499084163261026304

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1499107883212025861

[Omega21]

We've already gone beyond freedom fries 2.0, sadly.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Oilfield_Rando/status/1499146526404358148

Goes to show a Ph.D. or even a teaching position does not mean one is necessarily intelligent.

[Omega21]

Map of results of UN vote condemning Russia. China's influence in this conflict is very obvious and they are not behaving as the "neutral" party they wish others to believe (hello there, African investments!):

Listen, guys, I think we aren't being fair towards Putin.

He got the whole Balkans to agree on a conflict!!!!

Nobel Peace Prize 2023 confirmed.

[Omega21]

Difficult to work out whether the Brest-Litovsk Zwei stans are being ironic or not, but worth remembering that present day Russia is essentially within the borders of what was agreed at Brest-Litovsk.

Gee, I wonder...

If there is one thing that’s clear, it’s that this whole Ukraine crisis has broken Cassius’s brain.

I mean, my brain’s been broken since I read the Usborne Internet Linked Encyclopedia of History from cover to cover in 2000, but I’m not the one dismantling the global economy in order to make a point.

Yes, because the reason we are imposing sanctions is totally to own the Russkies and not because they decided to invade a sovereign nation of 40 million people and now are literally razing cities to the f**king ground.

Are the sanctions stopping that?

Do you have a f**king crystal ball?

So that’s a no is it?

They're clearly hurting the interests of the oligarchs, which increases the likelihood that someone within the governing elite in Russia will topple Putin, and that's the only easy way out of the crisis.

I'm still inhaling my hopium and trying to hold on to the thought of there being some sort of negotiated peace, but my hopium supplies are starting to run out...

[Omega21]

I wonder whether, once this is said and done, Russia will be forced to pay reparations or whether there will be a dispute over the question of lifting sanctions, possibly beyond Putin's reign. Since this is an unprovoked attack on a sovereign country, Russia definitely must pay reparations to the government and the people of Ukraine for everything they have done.

Sure, if the West wants to follow emotions instead of logic and reason, it should impose reparations.

Remember who was forced to pay reparations after WW1, and what that lead to?

There is a reason America didnt suck Germany/Japan/the Axis dry after WW2. They realized that it does not work, breeds resentment & instability, and ultimately leads back to square 1.

If Russia does manage to turn itself into a functional (somewhat liberal) democracy, the only sane thing to do is Marshall Plan 2.0.

[Omega21]

https://twitter.com/Liz_Cheney/status/1500225329595617286

While the "gentle" part is objectively true for the first few days of the invasion (not anymore), how the hell does he not see anything heroic about an actor suddenly turning Commander & leading his forces from the front line in a David vs Goliath type of scenario...

[Omega21]

So Putin is apparently... *checks notes* libertarian now.

Get me out of this timeline, please.

https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1500101769543749635

[Omega21]

https://twitter.com/MoonOverlord/status/1501277700950040584

[Omega21]

A good thread, imo. The key for Ukraine has always been time. The longer they fight, even if territory is lost, the more of a quagmire the war becomes for Russia.


https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502077318465998848?s=20&t=pjNK-rLQjqu...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502078979976613912?s=20&t=pjNK-rLQjqu...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502085135667187717?s=20&t=pjNK-rLQjqu...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502078360012349440?s=20&t=pjNK-rLQjqu...

As I said before, Ukraine probably gives up joining NATO and concedes Crimea to Russia.

Putin then gets to spin that back home as a win

Do they still get into the EU? They are probably too poor but it would be a bit of a deterrent.

Yes.

In turn, Ukraine gives up any claims of reparations.

I am with you on this one.

Basically I am still sticking with:

A realistic solution might be:

Russian Crimea

Autonomous Donbas as part of Ukraine

Constitutional neutrality (Austria Style) with Russian guarantees in return

Ukraine can pursue EU

Only thing that might be different is Donbas, I can imagine the whole (de jure) region getting autonomy, but I can also imagine Ukraine renouncing the pre February 22 occupied areas, whilst maintaining federal control of the rest.

This scratches Putins itch for some kind of a "win", whilst also keeping Ukraine a viable & more stable nation with even more potential for the future, especially considering the level of Aid that the EU/US will pour in afterwards.

A good thread, imo. The key for Ukraine has always been time. The longer they fight, even if territory is lost, the more of a quagmire the war becomes for Russia.


https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502077318465998848?s=20&t=pjNK-rLQjqu...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502078979976613912?s=20&t=pjNK-rLQjqu...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502085135667187717?s=20&t=pjNK-rLQjqu...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502078360012349440?s=20&t=pjNK-rLQjqu...

As I said before, Ukraine probably gives up joining NATO and concedes Crimea to Russia.

Putin then gets to spin that back home as a win

Do they still get into the EU? They are probably too poor but it would be a bit of a deterrent.

Yes.

In turn, Ukraine gives up any claims of reparations.

The problem is that Putin sees Ukrainian membership of NATO and the EU as one in the same. That's why Euromaidan happened in the first place, Putin pressured Yanukovych into not singing Ukraine's EU Association Agreement. The whole business about NATO expansion is just manufactured justification for Russia's aggressive actions. If NATO wasn't the issue, there would be something else l used as justification. Moldova has neutrality written into the Constitution. But Russia still constantly meddles with and threatens the country for sole purpose of preventing it from integrating with Europe, and pursuing EU membership.

Ukraine giving up EU is like Russia giving up Crimea. Both are extremely unlikely to happen.

Russia cannot afford to keep this going indefinitely, but neither can Ukraine. Russia is losing men, Ukraine is losing territory & billions of infrastructure, so I assume that eventually both sides will cave in some regards.

[Omega21]

NATO AA screwed up big time.

Might be Ukrainian as well. The Russians retired these drones in '91, the Ukrainians still use them though.

https://twitter.com/tgloban/status/1502205961095761922

[Omega21]

I think everybody thinks the war is getting so bloody and likely to get worse that NATO will get involved, which obviously raises the nuclear stakes quite a bit. But I trust Biden to hold the line on this. No direct attack on Russian forces unless they attack a NATO member.

This is nothing but appeasement

Please can people stop using this utterly moronic word when talking about all out nuclear war.

Thanks.

Do we really have to start explaining the basics we learned back in the 1980s all over again?

No BrO wE NeEd To NuKe ThEm FiRsT

[Omega21]

Clearly an American spy or Russian 5th columnist

[Omega21]

Prime Ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic and Slowenia arrived in Kyiv by train for talks.

https://twitter.com/MorawieckiM/status/1503782996444340224

BASED!
Biden should go as well.

Hear me out:

Adidas wearing Russian Gopnik drunk on Vodka vs American Walmart shopper with blood grease levels of 50%

Winner takes Ukraine

A true battle of the common people

[Omega21]

Another question doves really need to answer, is Russian leadership currently willing to go to war with NATO?

If yes…then what exactly is stopping them from taking Latvia and Lithuania next? Their morality?

If no, then why do we assume leadership won’t back down and sue for negotiations if we raise the stakes in Ukraine?

Simple really... They'd get REKT, that's it.

Russia is by no measure weak militarily in European terms, but they can't take on dozens of countries with total military spending up in the trillions.

[Omega21]

My takeaway from all of this is the "the West" needs to avoid being too economically interdependent with nations of power that might become adversarial to the breaking point.  "The West" needs to be able to quickly press the go into backup mode button, and replace whatever goods and services are cut off with adequate substitutes. In other words, if need be "the West" needs to be able effectuate a quick and not unduly painful divorce. And "the West" will need to pay a rather expensive insurance premium to get there. Both military and economic preparedness needs to be in play. To cut to the chase, the above policy needs to be in place for both China and Russia. They can and will and probably are returning the favor.

I disagree. Interdependency is still good, we just can't be AS dependent as we currently are on something as crucial as energy supply from potentially hostile authoritarian regimes. If this war blows over and there is regime change in Russia, we should definitely reengage with Russia trade-wise, but still work towards energy independence.

It's more than just energy independence. The West has effectively ceded it's manufacturing output and a sizable chunk of it's food production to either adversarial countries or countries that exploit their own people. And we posture by engaging in a bigger moral panic about exploitation over a westerner making a quick buck on OnlyFans rather than have a conversation about those working for pennies in a dye factory in Bangladesh to produce the clothes we buy for a few dollars.

We have to wean ourselves off cheap and easy 'throwaway' capitalism as well as cheap fuel. Which is harder to do when people under forty can only participate in 'throwaway' capitalism because they can't invest in permanent investments like owning their own home.

Also, keep in mind that Nixon ended workers receiving their share of productivity increase when he terminated the gold standard in the 70s.

I don't think we'll ever go back, and that's something you would need if you want people to stop participating in "throwaway capitalism"

[Omega21]

And also a reminder that Russia has suffered these causalities without a major urban fight yet

Tbf Mariupol is a major urban fight with a lot of men on both sides fighting for a city of 500,000

[Omega21]

I appreciate the shade:

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1507502555865169927?s=20&t=bgodSq...

I dont really get the big deal about Hungary, AFAIK, they both implemented the EU sanctions & voted to condemn the war in the UN.

Only thing they are not doing is sending & facilitating the transfer of lethal equipment, but there might be something I am missing.

[Omega21]

I appreciate the shade:

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1507502555865169927?s=20&t=bgodSq...

I dont really get the big deal about Hungary, AFAIK, they both implemented the EU sanctions & voted to condemn the war in the UN.

Only thing they are not doing is sending & facilitating the transfer of lethal equipment, but there might be something I am missing.

They are doing that because an election, there is speculation they will go back to their pro-Putin position as soon they are reelected.

Of course, that very well may be true, but that doesnt really allow for other nations to call them out, unless they actually backpedal on the sanctions & condemnation.

[Omega21]

The video of UA soldiers kneecapping Russian POWs is looking more genuine after some work done by the OSINT community.

If Ukraine does not crack down on this, good luck getting more soldiers to surrender after they have seen videos of torture/mistreatment.

Thread below:

https://twitter.com/zcjbrooker/status/1508114632673828867

[Omega21]

I agree. This was going to happen sooner or later though. The Ukrainians can only watch civilians getting shot standing in breadlines, and babies and women get bombed to death for so long before they can't resist the urge to retaliate in kind. It's a shame that certain vile republican House members will use this as a reason to 'both sides' the war when the atrocities are almost entirely one-sided.

That's the whole point of being a professional soldier, not giving into animalistic instincts & emotions on the battlefield. War crime apologism is never really the morally right thing, no matter who's doing it and who it's being done to.

I don't care how many rockets Putin launches, it does not justify summary executions and barbaric torture of soldiers who laid down their weapons, especially when you consider the fact the ones who are giving up are more likely to give a rats ass about Putin's grandiose endeavor and just want the war to end for them.

[Omega21]

Oh god Zelensky please don’t. If he gives up 1 yard of Ukraine soil he’ll just be inviting Putin to try this again in the future and would effectively kill the UN charter which forbids the seizure of land via force

Its ultimately up to the Ukrainians to decide what sort of deal is acceptable.

This guy gets it.

Ukraine was not able to retake a region held by a ragtag group of separatists with Russian support, so I really do not see any scenario in which they can retake areas such as Crimea, which are under full Russian control.

Zelensky, being the capable leader he is, understands this, and is looking to lose as little as possible and stop this before his country suffers another 1,2,3 or 5 Trillion $ of damage, as well as countless destroyed families.

[Omega21]

And for all the bravado currently being displayed by some, Russia aren't likely to be invading Ukraine again (or indeed any other significant place) for some time to come should this war end soon.

Agreed.

If Putin is smart, there will be a purge of the upper ranks & some tough lessons will need to be learned from the mistakes that were made.

This, plus the simple replacement of elite troops & equipment will undoubtedly take some time, especially considering the not so bright short-term outlook for their economy.

[Omega21]

For those interested in seeing the Russian side of the wartime propaganda:

This account has been showing a lot of surrendering UA fighters as well as a lot of destroyed/captured UA equipment.

Good to follow in order to have a balanced view of the battlefield

https://twitter.com/tounkirine/status/1508632243610308613

[Omega21]

Current condition in Mariupol according to the Russian side. 70-80% of Mariupol proper is now under Russian control.

Independent OSINT enthusiasts did not find much contradicting evidence to dispute the claims, so they do seem to be fairly realistic.