2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 01, 2024, 12:56:07 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3 (search mode)
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3  (Read 130592 times)
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,963


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« on: September 17, 2018, 09:10:47 AM »

But why is David McKinley ahead by so much? Isn't he a Tea Party guy?
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,963


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2018, 12:51:35 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on September 21, 2018, 12:50:42 PM
An Iowa poll by Selzer for the DMR will be released tomorrow.

Great. A good week ruined.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,963


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2018, 01:13:16 PM »
How is the GOP doing this well? In 2012, there were several Republicans who made rape comments and got destroyed in the polls (deservedly so). The whole Kavanaugh controversy is like that 10 times over, yet they're still doing as well as they are?
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,963


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #3 on: September 23, 2018, 08:59:43 AM »
Quote from: TheRocketRaccoon on September 23, 2018, 08:58:16 AM
Fox News GCB: D+6 RV (46-40), D+7 LV (49-42)

Aw, poor Fox News thinks it'll be closer than D +9.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,963


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2018, 11:07:08 AM »
Brat is just too extreme.

We'd see similar results in some of the most Republican districts if the right-wing media would just cover the races there.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,963


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #5 on: September 29, 2018, 05:55:16 PM »
Quote from: Fmr. Pres. Griff on September 29, 2018, 05:53:29 PM
I just noticed something: of the 473 polls in the 538 GCB database this cycle, only 4 have shown a lead for the GOP: three of them are from Ipsos (and 1 was a Morning Consult poll from April 2017).

I know Ipsos is a garbage pollster, but what exactly are they doing to be the only pollster to show any GOP lead whatsoever over the past year and a half?

I thought it was because Ipsos had a brief period a few months ago where they changed their methodology, but changed it right back when they found out it was faulty.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,963


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2018, 10:38:46 AM »
Quote from: Fmr. Gov. NickG on October 02, 2018, 10:36:56 AM
Quote from: hofoid on October 02, 2018, 10:11:00 AM
Dems fall to 76.3% on 538 to take back the House, lowest since right after Labor Day. I'd say it was the Kavanaugh bump and skittish GOPers during the McCain mess coming back home. Expect more Dem collapse in the coming weeks.

From what I can tell, this is the result of about a 0.5% gain for the GOP in the generic ballot over the last week (it's not D+8.4%, translating into an expected GCB on election day of D+8.1% in the model, compared to D+9%/D+8.6% about a week ago).

Notice also that the newest polls are from lousy pollsters.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,963


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2018, 02:21:16 PM »
Quote from: Wolverine22 on October 02, 2018, 02:20:12 PM
I'm trying not to get nervous out of nothing, but how does FiveThirtyEight's forecast work? In one week Democrats' chances of winning the House have gone from 80% to 75%.

Not only that, but it changes about every hour, even if there haven't been any polls in days.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,963


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2018, 06:28:54 PM »
Bust goes the expanding Republican bubble. A new Ipsos poll has it at D +12...

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/2/1800969/-Ipsos-Poll-Shows-Growing-Generic-Lead-Now-at-11-7
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,963


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #9 on: October 03, 2018, 09:17:37 PM »
Quote from: TheRocketRaccoon on October 03, 2018, 09:15:24 PM


Now I am starting to worry. Wasn't this a likely Democratic pickup?
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,963


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #10 on: October 03, 2018, 11:43:59 PM »
I know it's not a serious post, because I'm the only person who uses "costed" in serious posts.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,963


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #11 on: October 04, 2018, 04:17:01 PM »
Also, IBD is a right-wing rag.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,963


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #12 on: October 04, 2018, 05:00:16 PM »
Quote from: American2020 on October 04, 2018, 04:57:40 PM




Kaboom.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,963


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #13 on: October 04, 2018, 09:25:28 PM »
And 538 ignores all the new D +9 polls, for some reason.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,963


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #14 on: October 04, 2018, 09:28:24 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 04, 2018, 09:26:52 PM
Quote from: Bandit3 the Worker on October 04, 2018, 09:25:28 PM
And 538 ignores all the new D +9 polls, for some reason.

I think they're already in the average.

The Rasmussen one definitely isn't.

The D +2 poll from IBD is. Of course.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,963


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #15 on: October 06, 2018, 10:02:07 AM »
Quote from: TheRocketRaccoon on October 06, 2018, 09:18:13 AM


:thinking_emoji:

KY-4?
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,963


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #16 on: October 06, 2018, 02:14:08 PM »
A new Harris poll is D +8, the same as their last one.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,963


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #17 on: October 06, 2018, 02:24:27 PM »
Quote from: Yank2133 on October 06, 2018, 02:21:09 PM
Quote from: Bandit3 the Worker on October 06, 2018, 02:14:08 PM
A new Harris poll is D +8, the same as their last one.

Something has got to give with that Harris poll.

D+8, but Trump has a 49/51 approval rating?

It's more than +8 then.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,963


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #18 on: October 07, 2018, 12:07:54 PM »
Pretty sure the average GCB is D +7.8
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,963


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #19 on: October 07, 2018, 12:51:50 PM »
How about if we delete IBD's laughable D +2 poll?
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,963


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #20 on: October 07, 2018, 01:34:49 PM »
Quote from: hofoid on October 07, 2018, 01:32:52 PM
RCP and 538 don't lie. The burden of proof is on Red Avatars to numerically prove that a collapse isn't happening.

The 2 most recent polls are D +8.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,963


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #21 on: October 07, 2018, 01:44:29 PM »
I just wish they'd flush that D +2 poll away. I don't know why they gave it twice the weight of the D +12 poll, which had twice as many respondents.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,963


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #22 on: October 07, 2018, 01:57:36 PM »
Quote from: KingSweden on October 07, 2018, 01:56:26 PM
The first three? Nah, though I think they’ve had advantages for a while rather than pulling away. Hawley I’ve seen no evidence for, unless you regard McLolghlin as evidence

Or as I call it, McLoglin, because they're a big stinky log.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,963


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #23 on: October 07, 2018, 02:30:08 PM »
I did see an article for Arizona that said most of the undecideds were very anti-Kavanaugh, so the Kavanaugh stuff sure isn't helping Republicans.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,963


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #24 on: October 07, 2018, 10:36:24 PM »
Quote from: Figueira on October 07, 2018, 10:34:44 PM
Interestingly Democrats in all of 538's metrics (FWIW) made a big drop and have since plateaued. I wonder where things will go from here.

I noticed they made a sudden drop maybe 6 or 7 days ago then have hardly budged since - despite the bogus IBD poll.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.035 seconds with 11 queries.