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Author Topic: National Tracking Poll Thread  (Read 312679 times)
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,960


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #25 on: October 06, 2012, 10:10:04 AM »
Quote from: Occupy Sesame Street on October 06, 2012, 10:08:13 AM
These days you win debates by being rude, belligerent, dishonest, and ill-informed.

Then we should stop calling it a debate and start calling it a public temper tantrum.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,960


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #26 on: October 06, 2012, 10:17:06 AM »
It's better to be bored than to be a big bully.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,960


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #27 on: October 08, 2012, 07:03:10 PM »
Quote from: Yank2133 on October 08, 2012, 06:58:46 PM
According to NPR, Gallup is switching to LV tomorrow.

Don't they already use LV?
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,960


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #28 on: October 08, 2012, 10:50:21 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on October 08, 2012, 10:48:40 PM
Quote from: AmericanNation on October 08, 2012, 09:03:02 PM
Pew Poll

Romney 49
Obama  45

Pew is usually messed up, but rarely in favor of Rs.  

Why are you posting this in the tracking poll thread?

Not only that, but the poll has already been discredited by the internals.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,960


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #29 on: October 08, 2012, 10:55:44 PM »
Quote from: Clinton1996 "Sec. of Explaining Stuff" on October 08, 2012, 10:52:58 PM
Quote from: Bandit3 the Worker on October 08, 2012, 10:50:21 PM
Quote from: Eraserhead on October 08, 2012, 10:48:40 PM
Quote from: AmericanNation on October 08, 2012, 09:03:02 PM
Pew Poll

Romney 49
Obama  45

Pew is usually messed up, but rarely in favor of Rs.  

Why are you posting this in the tracking poll thread?

Not only that, but the poll has already been discredited by the internals.
What internals?

68% of respondents were over 50.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,960


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #30 on: October 09, 2012, 12:03:42 PM »
Quote from: afleitch on October 09, 2012, 12:00:25 PM
Gallup

LV: Romney 49 (+1) Obama 47 (-1)
RV: Obama 50 (+1) Romney 45 (-1)

A 7-point diff between LV and RV? I don't think so, Gallup.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,960


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #31 on: October 09, 2012, 12:13:36 PM »
Quote from: afleitch on October 09, 2012, 12:06:10 PM
Interestingly Obama's approvals are up to 53% and Gallup are still using a 7 day model for their Presidential tracker. I thought they would have switched to a three day model?

The only way you can defeat an incumbent President with approvals that high is if the opponent is already some sort of national hero. Sorry, Mitt, you lose.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,960


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #32 on: October 09, 2012, 12:22:33 PM »
Quote from: brittain33 on October 09, 2012, 12:18:28 PM
I saw some reverse math at Brad DeLong's site that said that Obama must have had an extraordinarily good sample on Sunday to account for the numbers Gallup was showing between the two 3-day breakouts and the 7-day option. Like, O +20.

Maybe people finally had a Kenny Rogers moment where they just got tired of putting up with Romney's crap. It's a bit like when Occupy started.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,960


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #33 on: October 09, 2012, 02:36:16 PM »
IBD is a far-right rag.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,960


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #34 on: October 10, 2012, 01:31:35 PM »
Quote from: krazen1211 on October 10, 2012, 01:29:20 PM
Day 2:

Romney 49
Obama 44


Great news! Obama continues his collapse with whites.

On the same day Obama leads by 4 in Florida, 4 in Ohio, and Ras shows him up by double digits in New Mexico? I don't think so, IBD.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,960


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #35 on: October 12, 2012, 12:35:51 PM »
I just read that Obama's lead grew to 2.02% on RAND.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,960


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #36 on: October 12, 2012, 12:57:59 PM »

This is an improvement for Obama, actually.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,960


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #37 on: October 14, 2012, 06:47:19 PM »
Quote from: Malarkey Voter on October 14, 2012, 06:43:54 PM
So now Obama is leading in 3 trackers and trailing in 2. This is quite the close one

It's really not even that close considering the Republican leanings of the 2 he's losing.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,960


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #38 on: October 16, 2012, 12:09:23 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on October 16, 2012, 12:06:42 PM
Gallup

Romney 50 (+2)

Obama 46 (-2)

Obama approval up to 49%A/45%D

I'd love to know what the RV is on this.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,960


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #39 on: October 16, 2012, 12:10:23 PM »
Quote from: Devils30 on October 16, 2012, 12:08:29 PM
The polls have officially stopped making sense. How the hell can Obama be winning Ohio, tied in VA, CO and down 4 nationally?

Gallup polls have favored the GOP throughout the campaign.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,960


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #40 on: October 16, 2012, 12:31:43 PM »
Quote from: cavalcade on October 16, 2012, 12:26:43 PM
The result is that Gallup is looking awfully R now- did they re-fix their sample after that criticism over increasing cell phone and minority weighting?

I think that explains it. In the process, Gallup made their own polling less accurate.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,960


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #41 on: October 16, 2012, 02:02:23 PM »
Quote from: Lief on October 16, 2012, 01:57:32 PM
IBD/TIPP
Obama 47%
Romney 46%

It was tied yesterday.

So Obama improved in three tracker todays (Reuters/Ipsos, IBD/TIPP and RAND) and Romney improved in the other two (Rasmussen, Gallup).

Lots of red faces at PPP right now.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,960


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #42 on: October 17, 2012, 11:59:38 AM »
Quote from: Binders Full of Women Voter on October 17, 2012, 11:57:29 AM
RAND
Obama 49.07
Romney 45.16

That's about a 1 point bump up for Romney, pretty big for one day in this poll

I'm assuming this is before last night's debate.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,960


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #43 on: October 18, 2012, 12:03:49 PM »
I think it's time Gallup gets flushed onto the scrap heap of history.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,960


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #44 on: October 18, 2012, 12:12:51 PM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 18, 2012, 12:10:25 PM
Indeed. No way 5% of voters approve an incumbent president and then go out and vote for his challenger.

Probably the only way for an incumbent President to lose with a 50% approval rating is if the challenger is a national hero - not a spoiled, job-killing crybaby like Romney.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,960


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #45 on: October 18, 2012, 12:14:09 PM »
Quote from: Wiz from Wis in Mass on October 18, 2012, 12:09:52 PM
Quote from: AWallTEP81 on October 18, 2012, 12:06:45 PM
Quote from: Earthling on October 18, 2012, 12:04:32 PM
And Obama at 50% approval rating? Doesn't make any sense.

It's certainly unprecedented.  The likely voters screen must be very strict. 

They also had Romney opening up a 22+ point lead in the South, but losing all the other regions... seems unlikely.


Also they have Obama leading by only 4% in the Northeast - even though he's winning every state in the Northeast by more than 4%.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,960


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #46 on: October 18, 2012, 12:27:29 PM »
A brand new bubble gum bustin' Zogby poll just came out showing Obama up by 4 in Florida. No way he's doing 11 points better there than nationwide.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,960


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #47 on: October 18, 2012, 03:04:24 PM »

It didn't.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,960


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #48 on: October 23, 2012, 04:50:25 PM »
The ABC poll has Romney up by only 0.07. It's actually 48.51 to 48.44.

And that's an LV poll.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,960


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #49 on: October 23, 2012, 04:58:42 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on October 23, 2012, 04:57:01 PM
Quote from: Bandit3 the Worker on October 23, 2012, 04:50:25 PM
The ABC poll has Romney up by only 0.07. It's actually 48.51 to 48.44.

And that's an LV poll.

Where do you see that?

Someone on Daily Kos mentioned it.
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