Argentina Legislative Elections, November 14

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

So the situation is still evolving but some things have become clear.

First off, the collapse of Todos was completely unforeseen by the government, and they somehow thought they were on the verge of victory right until the votes started coming in. The most dramatic collapse occurred in the poor and working class suburbs that constitute the core of support, where in many districts they received fewer than half the votes of 2019.

As a result the knives came out and after intense conflict between the conservative Peronists governing the regions, the President's moderate supporters and the leftist Kirchnerists it appears the latter prevailed. Most of the new ministers are from that side of the movement and it looks like the plan from now until November is to loosen COVID restrictions, crank the printing press and hand out benefits to bring turnout up. The gamble is that since moderation failed to bring out the 2017 voters of Massa and Kirchner so going more openly with the latter might at least manage to match or beat her 2017 performance, which would still be an improvement on the current result.

The more conservative peronistas within Todos also had one pretty big victory by getting, the extremely anti-abortion, reticent on sex-ed, pro-Church and definitely not progressive on security/justice/law and order issues, former governor of the northwestern (read: socially conservative) province of Tucumán, Juan Manzur as the new Chief of the Cabinet

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

We know that the libertarian cadres are basically far-right on Social Issues™, but what about their voters?

Milei is largely a protest vote for people who consider than JxC isn't doing enough against the kirchneristas, so their voters are a mixed bag, Including on social issues

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

If JxC wins resoundingly next month would that put Mayor of Buenos Aires Horacio Rodriguez Larreta in a strong position to contest Fernandez for the Presidency in 2023? I get the feel he has presidential ambitions.

Yes, and it's well known by everyone in Argentina that he has presidential ambitoons, and he is term-limited as mayor

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Most polls released since mid-October indicate that FIT will overperform from the last election. They also show that FIT+FdL isn’t enough to beat out a center-right government in most provinces.

This is shaping up to be a good election for FIT and an amazing election for the Argentine Right as a whole.

The chances of FIT and Todos getting into an alliance, or even a confidence-and-supply agreement, on any province, or at the national level,  are very low. A large part of the FIT would rather be the eternal opposition to any government

Acording to most polls, the FIT wouldn't get a big increase in votes in the few districts where it can actually get national diputados elected (the two Buenos Aires and Jujuy, and in the latter even if they got the first place it wouldn't actually matter as this province only votes for 3 diputados). In fact, in a lot of polls on Buenos Aires Province and City they're either stuck at their PASO levels or even losing votes

On the provincial legislature level:

FIT is facing an uphill battle on Buenos Aires Province, as it's divided on 8 districts, with all diputados and senators from 4 of these being renewed on each election. These districts have 6 to 18 diputados each and half this amount of senators,  which realistically gives them an upper limit of only 1 provincial diputado, from the third district, which is the largest one with 18 diputados, as the next two largest districts vote 11 diputados each, which means a de-facto 9% threshold

Buenos Aires City uses a Dutch-style system, so it's easier for the FIT to get seats, but according to the polls the FIT haven't significantly improved between the PASO and now, and Luis Zamora's AyL isn't getting significantly weaker either

Jujuy already voted for provincial legislators back in June, and the FIT got no representatives elected  as they only got 7.53% of the votes in that election

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Just posting a few poll results from a Clarín (the country's largest newspaper and very JxC leaning) article that was posted a few days ago


PASO results: JxC: 39.8% - TODOS: 35.4% - FIT-U: 5.3% - Avz.Libertad: 5.1% Vamos: 3.9% - +Valores: 1.6%
The threshold is usually between 3.5 and 4.5%, FIT and AL would get 2 seats each with the PASO results, while Randazzo wouldn't get into Congress



PASO: JxC: 48.8% - Todos: 25.1% - Libertad Avz.: 13.9% - FIT-U: 6.3% - AyL: 2.7%
Practical threshold around 6-7%, so Bregman's (FIT) seat is at risk, which is pretty clear on some of their more desperate ads

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

If someone wants to know the results of the PASO in any of the polling places, here's this nice thing. You can also see how your actual polling station did. Not sure if there is a paywall or something but you can just enter incognito.

https://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/antes-de-volver-a-las-urnas-mira-los-resultados-de-las-paso-en-la-escuela-donde-votaste-nid09112021/


The one in which I...uh...didn't vote but plan to this sunday gave Juntos por el Cambio almost a 70%, followed by Millei with 13% and the kirchnerists with 12%

Anyway, here's my even more unrepresentative polling station's results:
Juntos: 75%
La Libertad Avanza (Milei): 14.5%
Todos: 6.5%
FIT-U: 1.8%

Unsurprisingly, many of Macri's best results in the whole country came for this part of my neighborhood, including my old polling place which was likely among his top 10 results

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

I'm definitely not the best person to talk about Jujuy's politics as I've never understood them all that well

From what I can gather, FIT's results in Jujuy are largely vorrelated with the kirchnerista's pretty bad, to outright attrocious, results in the province in recent years, which began around 2015 during the last year of the Fellner and were largely correlated with the Milagro Sala debacle

Sala had an extremely strong relation with the provincial PJ and held a very firm control over parts of the party and the province, in her rooe as some sort of militant activist who was strongly involved in housing initiatives and general clientelistic and welfare activities through her Tupac Amaru Organization

Sala's power collapsed as Fellner was replaced as governor by the anti-kirchnerista Gerardo Morales, amd many of her scandals, involving corruption, protecting an attempted murderer, threats and acts of violence against journalists, alleged connections to drug trafficking, and strongs authoritarian tendencies, came to light or got renewed attention. This, combined with Fellner's unpopularity, the open intra-PJ conflicts and lack of particularly good candidates made the PJ lose a lot of good will in Jujuy, and for national eclections I guess the FIT was seen as the next best thing for many Anti-Morales voters

Also and idk why, since 2015 the FIT hasn't been successful getting even remotely consistent in Jujuy, performing well only on midterm elections going from 16-18% in the 2017 elections to  2-4% in 2019 and then 23% on the 2021 national paso, but only 7.5% on the provincial elections

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

EPEP 146, Patiño, Paraguay Formosa: Estamos con Vos 100% (1 vote).

lmao, 2 people to control the ballots and run the election smoothly, only 1 voter. That must have been a really exciting day at the polling place. That town has like 600 inhabitants, what the hell? did just one guy bothered to vote?

There are 2 polling sites that share the same name according to the LN map, and the other one has 476 votes, I'm not really sure what happened with the one with only 1 vote, but I doubt the fiscales and polling workers stayed at this station for very long, it was likely pre-established as some sort of Cuarto oscuro accesible (accesible voting booth) or a special station for the very few people who couldn't go to the regular polling station due to living far away from it

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Turnout has increased significantly from the Paso, the turnout at 14:00 went from 36% to 44%

15:00 update, 51% turnout (43.5% on the Paso)

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

I read that 46% of the results are already counted. guess we'll basically know almost every winner in the next 45 minutes or so

Yeah, they're counted the results quite fast

First official results

Buenos Aires Province, 76.55% of votes counted
  -Juntos: 40.05% (16 seats)
  -Todos: 38.41%(15)
  -Avanza Libertad: 7.48% (2)
  -FIT: 6.75% (2)
  -Vamos: 4.36% (0)
A relatively strong performance for Todos in the largest province, when compared to the Paso, even if it's a very weak election for them overall

Buenos Aires City, 92.47% counted
  -Juntos: 47.03% (7)
  -Todos: 24.6%(3)
  -La Libertad Avanza: 17.07% (2)
  -FIT: 7.75% (1)

Córdoba, 94.79% counted
  -Juntos: 54.06% (6)
  - Hacemos por Córdoba 25% (2)
  -Todos: 10.51 %(1)

Santa Fe, 77.5% counted
  -Juntos: D: 40.41% (5), S: 40.49% (2)
  -Todos: D: 31.17%(3), S: 32.04% (1)
  -F.A. Progresista: 12.07% (1), S: 12.36%

Mendoza, 90.31% counted
  -Cambia Mendoza: 49.84% (3)
  -Todos: 25.07% (2)
  -P Verde: 9.10% (0)

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Hopefully FIT takes the lead in Jujuy, but otherwise this has been a fantastic electoral streak for them since the abortion ruling.

They have a decent, if small, chance of getting tbe second place over Todos, but they're definitely not on the (non-existent) race for the first place
97.67% counted
Cambia Jujuy (JxC): 49.01% (1)
Todos: 25.77% (1)
FIT-U: 25.21% (1)

Still, definitely a great election for the Left in Jujuy

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

A few days ago, @andy_tow posted interactive precinct (or electoral circuits) maps of Buenos Aires City and Gran Buenos Aires, including by turnout and by party strength

Turnout by province: https://t.co/kjVSIMTsRd?amp=1

Buenos Aires City


Turnout: https://www.pagina12.com.ar/383047-elecciones-2021-en-caba-en-que-barrio-porteno-fue-mas-gente-
Which party won by precinct: https://t.co/thUW2fDTsi?amp=1

Milei vote share: https://www.pagina12.com.ar/383039-asi-fue-el-voto-a-javier-milei-en-las-elecciones-2021-en-cab
FIT: https://www.pagina12.com.ar/383040-elecciones-2021-en-caba-como-le-fue-al-frente-de-izquierda-e

Gran Buenos Aires:
Which party won on each precinct
https://www.pagina12.com.ar/383266-elecciones-2021-como-les-fue-al-frente-de-todos-y-a-juntos-e
Margin of victory
https://www.pagina12.com.ar/383278-elecciones-2021-la-diferencia-de-votos-entre-el-frente-de-to?amp=1

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

BREAKING


Vamos con Vos finally got to the required 3% of the electoral roll of Buenos Aires Province which means that Florencio Randazzo, the head of the list, will get a seat as Diputado, which would've otherwise gone to  Avanza Libertad's third candidate Hugo Bontempo