Argentina General Discussion 🇦🇷

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

My biggest cultural shock related to Argentina was seeing that they had the guy behind the Conquest of the Desert (and the process itself) in their money. In Chile, you couldn't put the equivalent guy in a half-cent coin without putting half of the country on fire.

Why is that, I wonder? And who is your equivalent of Roca?

Cornelio Saavedra: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornelio_Saavedra_Rodr%C3%ADguez. Mind you, he has some conmemorative plaques in the towns he founded and used to have statues (I'm pretty sure most of them were destroyed during the unrest) and a town named after him (Puerto Saavedra, ironically one of the most left wings areas of Auracanía), but really, he isn't viewed as a hero or anything. Absolutely nobody cried about the destruction of his statues.

Unlike Argentina with the Conquest of the Desert, the Occupation of the Araucanía nowadays isn't seen in a favorable light. One of the founding myths of Chile is the resistance of the Mapuche against the Spanish and the fact they couldn't be conquered and remained independent well into the XIX century.  That chileans have the "blood of the araucanan warrior" is the most chauvinistic version of that. Chile, unlike Argentina also had significant mestizaje during the Colony and people who identify as Mapuche are around 10% population. The majority of people are at least somewhat sympathetic to their revindications.

Besides, I'm under the impression that Argentina teaches the Conquest of the Desert as an act of nation-building, very important for the progress of the country and whatnot. Here in Chile the Occupation of the Araucania is taught as something that happened, it doesn't have any mystic to it.

For a second I thought you guys had stolen our Cornelio Saavedra, the first president of the Primera Junta, founder of the oldest military battalion of Argentina and one of the founding fathers of Argentina

It turns out you were talking about his son

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

My biggest cultural shock related to Argentina was seeing that they had the guy behind the Conquest of the Desert (and the process itself) in their money. In Chile, you couldn't put the equivalent guy in a half-cent coin without putting half of the country on fire.

Why is that, I wonder? And who is your equivalent of Roca?

Cornelio Saavedra: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornelio_Saavedra_Rodr%C3%ADguez. Mind you, he has some conmemorative plaques in the towns he founded and used to have statues (I'm pretty sure most of them were destroyed during the unrest) and a town named after him (Puerto Saavedra, ironically one of the most left wings areas of Auracanía), but really, he isn't viewed as a hero or anything. Absolutely nobody cried about the destruction of his statues.

Unlike Argentina with the Conquest of the Desert, the Occupation of the Araucanía nowadays isn't seen in a favorable light. One of the founding myths of Chile is the resistance of the Mapuche against the Spanish and the fact they couldn't be conquered and remained independent well into the XIX century.  That chileans have the "blood of the araucanan warrior" is the most chauvinistic version of that. Chile, unlike Argentina also had significant mestizaje during the Colony and people who identify as Mapuche are around 10% population. The majority of people are at least somewhat sympathetic to their revindications.

Besides, I'm under the impression that Argentina teaches the Conquest of the Desert as an act of nation-building, very important for the progress of the country and whatnot. Here in Chile the Occupation of the Araucania is taught as something that happened, it doesn't have any mystic to it.

Nowadays it's taught a lot closer to how it's done in Chile and there was a strong debate a few years ago about removing Roca from the $100 banknote, and he was replaced with Evita during the Cristina Fernández administration in 2011, which was instead replaced with a taruca deer in 2018 as part of a
the new animals-on-banknotes series.

All three are still legal tender

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

haha what

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1320172896543772673

From purely anecdotal evidence (=looking at Twitter), people voting for Despertar are mostly the typical far-right demographic, that is men in their 20s and 30s frustrated with TEH SYSTEM and with Macri for being too moderate. Can't blame them, really, this was bound to happen at some point given the very special way Argentina is ed (a big part of which was too much economic interventionism, carried out with criminal stupidity at that, and I'm saying this as a sorta leftist) but it's still surprising to see Espert in double digits. Most likely, like almost everywhere else in the world, 90% of people voting for libertarians are actually various shades of fash and dollars to donuts would've cheered on such charming figures as Videla were they born 40 years earlier.

Somewhat related to this, I have a pet theory on why non-Peronist right was so weak in Argentina post-Perón, something pretty strange when you compare Argentina to other Latin American countries, where middle- and upper-class people vote strongly for the right - in AR, they usually voted for the kinda-sorta-centrist-liberalish-moderate-hero UCR. The easy answer is that Argentine politics was never really ideologically based, and it might just be that simple and I might be overthinking it, but I guess that:

1) they tanked in the 40s and 50s when the middle class flocked to Radicals as better anti-Peronists than stuffy old feduals who ran a dictatorship just a couple of years before

2) they remained unpopular in the 60s and early 70s because of their association with the army and its constant coups that promised to bring political stability but achieved the exact opposite (unlike, say, Pinochet), though they did get one good election result (14% for former dictator P. E. Aramburu in the 1963 election)

3) in the 70s they actually had some support (15% and 12% in the two presidential elections), which led to the 1976 coup, but afterwards...

4) during the Proceso the dictatorship was more concerned with stabbing each other in the back, declaring open season on leftists, committing an ungentlemanly act in the South Atlantic and completely ing up the economy

5) in the 80s there was basically a two-party system not based on the left-right paradigm* that didn't leave much room for them and they were too closely associated with the army and their excesses, both during Proceso and later with the Carapintadas rebellions

6) the 90s was basically a continuation of the previous factors - not surprising given that the most relevant right-wing party was MODIN, a lobby group for disgruntled army officers that served as a receptacle for random protest voters

7) in 2001, López Murphy acutally got a decent result but with the explosion of party system and increasingly personality-based politics, they were unable to find the right candidate. This, however, was a much more liberal right than the anti-Peronist/anti-communist fanatics of the 70s and earlier

8​) Cambiemos Juntos por whatever they're callling themselves today is, probably, centre-right if you're looking for a one-word description, but besides Republican Proposal ("liberal conservatives" as written in the SACRED WIKIPEDIA INFOBOX, which is, admittedly, a reasonable approximation of reality - though Macri did praise Peronism, so there's that) it has also more centrist, centre-left and shameless opportunist people.

* To the extent it was, it could be argued that during much of the 80s and 90s, Radicals were actually to the left of Justicialists, but let's not get into that.

One thing that seems weird is that Espert/Milei's support appears to be inversely proportional to support for Macri. By conventional wisdom you'd think that they eat mostly from Macri's support and thus poll higher in his strongest regions, but actually they poll worst in Buenos Aires city (where Macri dominated even in 2019), better in Buenos Aires province and best in Argentina as a whole, which seems like the exact opposite pattern.

An explanation I've heard is that a lot of economic liberals voted for Fernandez out of a belief that he might turn out to be like Menem. I'm not sure how accurate that is but it does match up somewhat with your explanation of the non-ideological nature of Argentinian politics. Does that sound plausible or do you have a better explanation?

As someone with a few family members and acquaintances that are open to voting for Espert or Milei, a large part of it is simply that they don't have an open history as corrupt politicians and they're seen as more honest than Macri, Alberto and Cristina, but I'd say that firmly less than half of their support is from hardcore ideologists, being on TV shows almost every other day gives them a lot of support from fairly non-ideological people and those with very ideosynchratic (sp?) views

Rodriguez Larreta (PRO, mayor of Buenos Aires) is currently on a huge popularity surge and is the most popular politician in the country, especially in his home turf. And Macri is riding on his coat tails a bit, also Macri isn't as despised on Buenos Aires City as he is in many other regions

There's certainly some UCD guys who voted for Fernandez, and Scioli, for the reasons that you mentioned but I would guess that it's a very small group

Also, Lopez Murphy is seen by many (especially in the middle and upper middle class) as the one honest (living) career politician

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

I agree that the results are weird and likely won't hold up until next year's elections, but Espert / Milei / Despertar / Libertarians have been getting around 10% in many recent polls, but then again Argentinean polls are hardly great and we're still almost a year away from the next elections and Argentinean campaign season is short

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

What is happening in Guernica right now with all this eviction talk?

A couple of months ago, a tract of private land in an outer suburb of Buenos Aires was occupied as a protest against poverty, mostly by people made homeless during the pandemic. Some families left in exchange for building materials, but others stayed and had their homes demolished by the police. The whole affair was quite violent - 4000 police took part, and there was plenty of tear gas, stone throwing, molotovs, rubber bullets and several wounded people on both sides.

There's something delightfully ironic about a Kirchnerist Minister of Public Security bragging about this operation and talking about a right to private property and how usurpation is a crime (and then going on TV and ranting about left-wing groups).

https://twitter.com/SergioBerniArg/status/1321820121002876929

something something peronists helping the poor

Berni is a weird guy, the only other kirchnerista he gets along with is Cristina herself, who also selected the not very popular or bright Axel Kicillof as candidate for governor of Buenos Aires (Berni's boss, in theory)
But he's also by far one of the most popular kirchnerista/peronista politicians in the whole country and one of the very few with any sort of broad appeal, so everyone who got in a fight with him ended up losing badly
Also, he openly identifies as a law-and-order right-winger

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Where exactly do the Trotskyists do well?

In relative terms they do best among Fernandez voters, Southerners (specifically Patagonians and people from Buenos Aires province) and Gen-Zs, albeit to a far lesser degree than the libertarians.

If you want to see for yourself just check the link and scroll to the very bottom. It's a little long and it's in Spanish but it's intuitive enough to understand.

Their base is younger middle class porteños (people from Buenos Aires City), they also do quite well in Mendoza
Also, most FIT voters prefer FpV to JxC, but not by that much, and the parties themselves (especially MST) hate Cristina Kirchner

I have never seen them do particularly well in Buenos Aires Province, either on the Conurbano or el Interior

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

let’s get those abortions baybee, get that fetus, kill that fetus

How does the senate look?

It looks like it will be a close vote, according to Clarín (the country's largest newspaper)out of the 71 senators who can vote on this law (Alperovich from Tucumán has been suspended for  allegedly raping his niece on numerous occasions) 34 senators supporting the bill and 36 opposing it, and 1 unknown (Crexell, who abstained in the 2018 vote)

But the Senate has always been in the hands of the governors and some FpV pro-life senators may vote for the bill to get some favors from the national government for their provinces and masters

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

The Senate will vote on the abortion bill on December 29

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

38 in favor - 29 against - 1 abstention - 4 not present (2 of these for involuntary reasons)

Kirchnerismo and allies: 25 in favor - 12 against - 1 - 3
Cambiemos: 11 in favor - 14 against
Others:  2 against - 3 in favor - 1 not present


As is tradition, La Nación has the best graphs

https://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/aborto-legal-segui-definicion-tiempo-real-senado-nid2554010

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

General polling average:

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1379419268513665026

Poll of Santa Fe Province:

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1379456799603052544

Not sure why the Libertarians and UNITE are polled separately since to my understanding they're part of the same front but whatever. The national polling average looks very bad for Todos but the Santa Fe poll looks disastrous for JxC. In theory the combined AL/FV vote of 11.6% is pretty close to the threshold to win a seat but if that overperformance extends to the smaller neighbouring provinces then it could cost the Macri-Larreta-Bullrich axis dearly.

My guess is that they try to organize some sort of coordination in the smaller provinces through the PASO to avoid that. In the mid sized provinces like Santa Fe, Cordoba and Mendoza though I suspect FV will run separately if they don't make a national pact of some sort.

Espert only "rented" the Unite name after having legal issues with a few other parties that he had so "rented" as his actual party didn't have legal personhood yet.
 Unite within Despertar and SF Unite have no actual relation with each other, as the party is just a rented label founded by some largely unknown nutjob, Alejandro Bonacci, with far-right (and not exactly in the libertarian meaning of term) connections
Unite had a very strong performance in Santa Fe in the 2019 provincial elections, under the "leadership" of former gossip-show starlet turned pro-life activist Amalia Granata (who also "rented" the name) getting 16.6% of the votes for provincial diputados (state representatives) and 6 out of  50 seats
Also, national and provincial coalitions are often fairly unrelated
e.g. The Socialist Party ran in 2019 within Consenso Federal for the national elections but with Juntos por el Cambio in Buenos Aires City

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

General polling average:

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1379419268513665026

Poll of Santa Fe Province:

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1379456799603052544

Not sure why the Libertarians and UNITE are polled separately since to my understanding they're part of the same front but whatever. The national polling average looks very bad for Todos but the Santa Fe poll looks disastrous for JxC. In theory the combined AL/FV vote of 11.6% is pretty close to the threshold to win a seat but if that overperformance extends to the smaller neighbouring provinces then it could cost the Macri-Larreta-Bullrich axis dearly.

My guess is that they try to organize some sort of coordination in the smaller provinces through the PASO to avoid that. In the mid sized provinces like Santa Fe, Cordoba and Mendoza though I suspect FV will run separately if they don't make a national pact of some sort.

Esperar only "rented" the Unite name after having legal issues with a few other parties that he had so "rented" as his actual party didn't have legal personhood yet.
 Unite within Despertar and SF Unite have no actual relation with each other, as the party is just a rented label founded by some largely unknown nutjob, Alejandro Bonacci, with far-right (and not exactly in the libertarian meaning of term) connections
Unite had a very strong performance in Santa Fe in the 2019 provincial elections, under the "leadership" of former gossip-show starlet turned pro-life activist Amalia Granata (who also "rented" the name) getting 16.6% of the votes for provincial diputados (state representatives) and 6 out of  50 seats
Also, national and provincial coalitions are often fairly unrelated
e.g. The Socialist Party ran in 2019 within Consenso Federal for the national elections but with Juntos por el Cambio in Buenos Aires City

What a mess. So was the Unite that ran in the 2017 legislative election Despertar Unite or SF Unite?

Neither, it turns out that in 2017 Bonacci rented the label to José Boasso, some guy from the conservative wing of the UCR that at the same time was unsuccessfully trying to primary the Cambiemos official list in SF  and "formed" his own mini party under Bonacci's formal structure as a backup. He later went back to Cambiemos/JxC

Regarding the 2019 performance, it was definitely a mix of both.The pro-life sentiment was definitely there especially after the unsuccessful national abortion bill of 2018, but it was also immensely helped by having a fomer celebrity and "relatable" person at its head instead of a lifelong politician with establishment or far right connections

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1383172749183574022

Bullrich-Lusteau, that would be one weird pair and I doubt they'd get along great as they represent completely opposite wings of JxC and they barely agree on anything.
Macri-Vidal may have made some sense in 2015 or 2019, but nowadays I get the sense that Vidal would rather go die in a ditch than being Macri's VP candidate
Amd Maximo would never go against his mother
Who chose those tickets?

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

https://twitter.com/qrcapital/status/1403425291826044935

lol, that's from an argentine TV show with journalist Eduardo Feinmann (who is usually a fascist, but he has some moments of glory like this one)

This will be forgotten rather quickly but it's always good to see a crap government like this one squirm. Not that the opposition is that much better, but I guess we are condemned to this.


By the way, Alberto Fernandez was in the 90's a staunch supporter of (even more neoliberal than Menem) Domingo Cavallo. Then he changed to become Kirchenrist, then he became one of the most vicious attackers of Cristina and kirchnerism, then he changed again to the nonsense that he is now. He's not even the worst flip-flopper in this government!

He lives in a high rise tower in Puerto Madero (which is one of the most expensive neighbourhoods to live in Argentina), so I'm betting he's not up to date in what normal people go through

And btw he doesn't own or even rent that apartment, it's owned by a friend of Fernández, who was cabinet member during the earlier days of kirchnerismo (who was pressured to resign way back in 2009 due to being involved several corruption scandals) and currently is a  media businessman who lends it to Alberto, y'know like regular people do all the time

And Alberto Fernández already owns two apartments in the relatively centric neighborhood of Recoleta, so there's no real need for him to be lent an extra apartment

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

I'm pretty sire rhat Estrella was in part talking about the "voto cantado" , the roll call voting system that was used before the Ley Saenz Peña which established  universal (male) secret voting

Under this system it wasn't necessary to adulterate the actual results as patronage, intimidation and bribery worked fine enough

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Truckers won a recent strike, will get a 20% increase in Freight rates. Since the government is on its last legs, they’ve adopted a more conciliatory stance in meeting halfway for various protests and strikes. Hopefully we get more victories like this and for the government to put a nice #populist goody package during election time.

It was pretty obvious that the truckers would get a good raise
It's not because of #populist/goody two shoes reasons but rather because the of the power of the Moyano family, which leads the truckers' union  and a good chunk of the general labor movement, which have a long history of making deals with pretty much any president and governor, and has connections well outside of the already extremely important truckers'union (which is as strong as it is because he was gladly helping in dismantling the rail network during the 90s)
Due in large part to Argentina's three-fold health care system, the bosses of the largest unions have an incredible amount of power and fortune, amd they've stayed in their top seats since the age of the dinosaurs
Don't confuse the  bosses of the Argentinean labor movement with their US equivalents

I doubt there is any union boss in the US which has done even a couple of the things that make Hugo Moyano such a prominent, and wisely despised (to the point where he's actually led the rankings for the politician with worst public opinion on more that a few polls), character in  Argentinean politics (btw most of these are also shared by many other of the main union bosses), like:

Having stayed on the same post on top of the union since the late 1980s
 is the president of one of the country's largest sports teams (with one of his sons as the second in command in both the truckers union and the club)
 is the treasurer of the country's largest sports association (and is the father in law of its president, who btw is the VP of a state-owned garbage collecting company that works as an extension of the truckers'union)
, got his other son Facundo to become a narional congressman at the age of 27, and stayed in the post for a decade, and at the same time Facundo was still  the leader of yet another labor union  (despite having only worked on that field for less than yeats before becoming its leader)
owns and controls several companies closely linked to the union and the football team which he already controls, including being the owner of one of the country's largest shipping companies in association with the man who is suspected to be the frontman for several businesses operated by the country's vicepresident
owns a couple of mansions and luxury apartments  and even owned a 5 star hotel for a few years
has been involved in a billion corruption and money laundering scandals
and, as you may've noticed from many of the other points, directly or indirectly, has most of his extended family working for/under him and in what are often very powerful roles

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Hugo Moyano is my hero and Alex forgot to say he is also the president of a football club called Independiente

More seriously,  we don't have  nothing comparable to Moyano's union in Spain.  However, we had recently a truckers' strike promoted by an association of self-employed truckers with alleged connections to the far-right. On the other hand, freight transport by rail represents less than 5% in Spain!

I have two questions:

What's the prevalence in Argentinian transport sector of that modern form of slavery called self-employment?

What's the remaining share of freight transport by rail?

I couldn't find any statistics about the first question

Over 90% of freight is by truck