NV: Ralston's final predictions

[Joe Republic]

Regarding 2016:

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[Joe Republic]

As I stated elsewhere, Sandoval's success on Tuesday comes only partly from his popularity, but also mainly from his complete absence of a real Democratic opponent running any kind of campaign.  Bob Goodman doesn't even bear the distinction of being called a 'sacrificial lamb', because that would imply that the NVDems even cared about the race in the first place.  Even Goodman himself has been a ghost.

[Joe Republic]

As I stated elsewhere, Sandoval's success on Tuesday comes only partly from his popularity, but also mainly from his complete absence of a real Democratic opponent running any kind of campaign.  Bob Goodman doesn't even bear the distinction of being called a 'sacrificial lamb', because that would imply that the NVDems even cared about the race in the first place.  Even Goodman himself has been a ghost.

Joe Republic, will Sandoval cross 70%?

Probably.  Upper 60's at minimum.

[Joe Republic]

The thing about the 2002 comparison is that Guinn's Democratic opponent, Joe Neal, was a long-term state senator with deep establishment connections who actually fought a campaign during that election.  That's why Sandoval stands a good shot at beating Guinn's result and breaking the 70% mark.

[Joe Republic]

We don't even have a bench anymore in a solid Obama state. What a joke.

Naw, if there's one thing I've learned from compiling maps of NV's various elections from the last couple of decades, is that a loss doesn't write off your career, especially if you're still relatively young.  Look at John Ensign in 1998, or Dina Titus in 2006 or 2010.  This definitely isn't the end of Ross Miller.