Trump is going to win the PV by 2-3 points, which will lead to a lot of states trending D simply by technicality.
Did you know that 23 states and DC trended R in 2008 despite a D near-landslide? You see, when there is a large national swing, it leads to a number of safe states “accidentally” trending the opposite way due to maxing out. For example, if there is a 5-point R swing and WV swings R by 3-4, it technically trended D despite even though R’s improved their performance there. In the same vein, NC trended D in 2012 despite it flipping from D to R.
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