Maybe I'm crazy but...

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Id say Cardin's ceiling is right around 55-57%.  He's just not that exciting of a candidate.  Im beginning to think Steele will pull around 20-30% of the black vote too.

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Wait for Kean Sr. to hit the trail and you'll see the immediate bounce.

We heard this when he went to bat for Forrester.  End Result - Corzine in a route.

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The last poll with crosstabs showed the white vote splitting pretty much 50/50.  Cardin will probably win the white vote by a thin margin in the end.

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My main concern is with younger blacks.  Steele has a movement going on.  Ive seen quite a few kids in Baltimore City sporting Steele t-shirts.

Not exactly the largest voter block, but still something to worry about.

Also, Steele is from PG County, which has a fairly large amount of middle to upper class blacks.  Some of which will be willing to cross party lines to break a  fellow African American through the glass ceiling.

Someone made an analogy the other day that makes a lot of sense.  Steele is a highly marketable version of Alan Keyes.  He can win, so dont right this one off just yet.

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It depends on the candidate.  Mikulski usually crushes her opponent across the board.

I believe Ehrlich dominated the white vote.  It may have been somewhere around 55-45 in favor of Bush in 2004.