Quick Predictions by Jim Geraghty from the National Review.WHAT WILL NOVEMBER HOLD?
Hopes that were high in the heat of September...
Can wilt and die in the chill of November.
November can be cold and gray - November can be surly ...
With bitter rain upon the world and winter coming early.- John Facenda, NFL Films
New York City Mayor’s Race: Bloomberg is winning big. Not exactly a triumphant moment for conservatism, but it is interesting that his win will mark 16 consecutive years of Republican management of New York City, a period that coincides with a miraculous reduction in crime, economic boom, gutsy leadership after the worst terrorist attack in our nation’s history, and a long, gritty rebuilding process.
New Jersey Governor’s Race: Gerry Daly’s latest poll roundup shows the two point Corzine lead was a blip; it looks like Doug Forrester is going to come up short, despite a late appearance by Mr. Clean Government, Sen. John McCain.
On the other hand, the GOP might get an opportunity to win later by losing now. A Corzine gubernatorial win would open up a Senate seat next year, and the GOP appears set to unify behind Tom Kean Jr. Democrats might have a nasty primary between Reps. Robert Menendez and Rob Andrews. Current polls of those hypothetical matchups show Kean leading all Democrats. Kean’s chances against a congressman are probably better than they would be against an incumbent Corzine.
Virginia Governor’s Race: The RealClearPolitics guys say “the trend looks to be favoring the Democrat Tim Kaine” ; Daly’s roundup is still labeling the race too close to call.
Republicans will be kicking themselves if they blow a chance at the governor’s mansion in this red state for the second straight cycle. The independent candidacy of Potts is not helping Republican Kilgore. You look at how Republican-leaning the state is, and how brutally effective the last round of death penalty ads were, and you would figure Kilgore would have this easily. He’s got a fundraising edge, but it looks like he’s going to need it.
California Ballot initiatives: The RealClearPolitics roundup has the parental notification for abortion initiative passing big-time, by 22 points. (In California???) Lengthening the waiting period for teacher’s tenure is up 8 points. The really big one, on union dues being used for political contributions, is up 14 points. State spending limits is up 13 points (although the range has been a 46 point margin for the “no” side to 22 points for the “Yes”. Those are some wacky numbers!) And a measure to put retired judges in charge of redistricting is up 13 points.
So there’s a range, but it looks like Arnie could have a good day, particularly if he can say, “Hasta la Vista, baby,” and blow away the state unions’ primary source of funds.
So the GOP looks to go 2 for 4, maybe 3 for 4. Not bad for a year in which Bush’s approval rating has been consistently low, many conservatives think the Harriet Miers nomination has been a mistake, gas prices are skyrocketing, and the Democratic rage hasn’t subsided.
And if by some miracle Forrester pulls off a huge upset (or heck, even if he covers the spread in a pretty blue state) those of us who are a bit skeptical of the annual “Bush and the GOP are doomed! Dooooooomed!” hype will have good reason to laugh. Again.
UPDATE: Daly has some more recent thoughts: "I agree with you that it looks like Forrester will come up short, but I also explain why looks may be deceiving here. There is still a realistic shot at an upset here. These poll numbers are almost exactly like the ones that were coming up when Corzine ran for the Senate. Bob Franks ended up losing by just three — and this was on a
night where everywhere, Democrats were exceeding expectations and poll numbers. This was before the Republicans came up with their 72-hour plan, which they have used so well in the 2002 and 2004 elections."
Those are good reasons for keeping a close eye on this race, but I wouldn't tell any Forrester fans to get their hopes too high. The New Jersey GOP has underperformed so much in recent years...
