WHAT WILL NOVEMBER HOLD?

[Moooooo]

Quick Predictions by Jim Geraghty from the National Review.

WHAT WILL NOVEMBER HOLD?

Hopes that were high in the heat of September...
Can wilt and die in the chill of November.
November can be cold and gray - November can be surly ...
With bitter rain upon the world and winter coming early.

- John Facenda, NFL Films

New York City Mayor’s Race: Bloomberg is winning big. Not exactly a triumphant moment for conservatism, but it is interesting that his win will mark 16 consecutive years of Republican management of New York City, a period that coincides with a miraculous reduction in crime, economic boom, gutsy leadership after the worst terrorist attack in our nation’s history, and a long, gritty rebuilding process.

New Jersey Governor’s Race: Gerry Daly’s latest poll roundup shows the two point Corzine lead was a blip; it looks like Doug Forrester is going to come up short, despite a late appearance by Mr. Clean Government, Sen. John McCain.

On the other hand, the GOP might get an opportunity to win later by losing now. A Corzine gubernatorial win would open up a Senate seat next year, and the GOP appears set to unify behind Tom Kean Jr. Democrats might have a nasty primary between Reps. Robert Menendez and Rob Andrews. Current polls of those hypothetical matchups show Kean leading all Democrats. Kean’s chances against a congressman are probably better than they would be against an incumbent Corzine.

Virginia Governor’s Race: The RealClearPolitics guys say “the trend looks to be favoring the Democrat Tim Kaine” ; Daly’s roundup is still labeling the race too close to call.

Republicans will be kicking themselves if they blow a chance at the governor’s mansion in this red state for the second straight cycle. The independent candidacy of Potts is not helping Republican Kilgore. You look at how Republican-leaning the state is, and how brutally effective the last round of death penalty ads were, and you would figure Kilgore would have this easily. He’s got a fundraising edge, but it looks like he’s going to need it.

California Ballot initiatives: The RealClearPolitics roundup has the parental notification for abortion initiative passing big-time, by 22 points. (In California???) Lengthening the waiting period for teacher’s tenure is up 8 points. The really big one, on union dues being used for political contributions, is up 14 points. State spending limits is up 13 points (although the range has been a 46 point margin for the “no” side to 22 points for the “Yes”. Those are some wacky numbers!) And a measure to put retired judges in charge of redistricting is up 13 points.

So there’s a range, but it looks like Arnie could have a good day, particularly if he can say, “Hasta la Vista, baby,” and blow away the state unions’ primary source of funds.

So the GOP looks to go 2 for 4, maybe 3 for 4. Not bad for a year in which Bush’s approval rating has been consistently low, many conservatives think the Harriet Miers nomination has been a mistake, gas prices are skyrocketing, and the Democratic rage hasn’t subsided.

And if by some miracle Forrester pulls off a huge upset (or heck, even if he covers the spread in a pretty blue state) those of us who are a bit skeptical of the annual “Bush and the GOP are doomed! Dooooooomed!” hype will have good reason to laugh. Again.

UPDATE: Daly has some more recent thoughts: "I agree with you that it looks like Forrester will come up short, but I also explain why looks may be deceiving here. There is still a realistic shot at an upset here. These poll numbers are almost exactly like the ones that were coming up when Corzine ran for the Senate. Bob Franks ended up losing by just three — and this was on a
night where everywhere, Democrats were exceeding expectations and poll numbers. This was before the Republicans came up with their 72-hour plan, which they have used so well in the 2002 and 2004 elections."

Those are good reasons for keeping a close eye on this race, but I wouldn't tell any Forrester fans to get their hopes too high. The New Jersey GOP has underperformed so much in recent years...

[bgwah]

The Repulsive Party just might win King County Executive, unfortunately.

[Ben.]

 Good news for Arnie in CA then?

There was never a state more in need of being taken in hand if you ask me, I really do hope that ballot initiatives pass… hopefully they’ll swing the state away from the basket case its become in recent years, what more it should help overcome the inbuilt and unfair partisan advantage to the Democrats in the state… just because it helps fellow Dems, does not make it any more palatable.

[CARLHAYDEN]

The Repulsive Party just might win King County Executive, unfortunately.

It doesn matter how the voters in King County vote as long as Dean Logan is in charge of the system.

Logan will 'find' enough votes to reelect Sims (his protector).

[TomC]

Bloomberg will obviously be reelected, NJ will go Dem, VA Republican- symbolizing nothing of a trend.

[AuH2O]

I've always thought voter initiatives tend to have a kind of natural positive outcome. In other words, the ballot basically provides a brief description of the idea, which almost always sounds good. They can lose, of course, particularly if a lot of attention is paid-- i.e. the attempt to render Colorado irrelevant in Presidential elections in 2004. But then that was a REALLY bad idea for voters.

[Gustaf]

Local elections doesn't really relate much to the national scene, I think. The midterms will be a much better indicator of Republican strength.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Bloomberg is hardly a win for the Republicans.

[Moooooo]

Bloomberg is hardly a win for the Republicans.

Why do you say that.  I dont follow NYC politics so I really know nothing about him.

[TheresNoMoney]

I think he means that Bloomberg is to the left of most Democrats.

[ag]

Bloomberg is hardly a win for the Republicans.

Why do you say that.  I dont follow NYC politics so I really know nothing about him.

NYC doesn't really have much of Republican party outside of Staten Island and some enclaves elsewhere.  Furthermore, none of its stalwarts has any chance of ever being elected to any citywide office - not even the Chief Dogcatcher of NYC, were they to establish such a sinecure in the next Charter revision.  Therefore, there isn't really much of a competition in party primaries - no heavyweight wants to be a whipping boy.

In contrast, the Democratic party is full of ambitious local politicians. Winning a Democratic primary without having paid one's dues to the organization for decades is nearly impossible.  Hence, there is a respectable tradition for ambitious outside politicians (as well as for some unsuccessful long-timers) to reregister as Republicans with an explicit purpose of being nominated. This is exactly what a life-long Democrat Bloomberg did before running for Mayor. Actually, this is also what Giuliani did right before he ran the first time (he lost then to Dinkins, but won 4 years later).  The strategy is surprisingly successful: faced with a choice between a fresh and energetic face and a tired party hack, oftentimes New Yorkers are willing to vote for a nominal Republican.

Of course, once they become elected Republicans people like Giuliani and Bloomberg try to be reasonably loyal to the national and state parties (they don't have to do much for the local Republican party, since there ain't any).  So they donate money or organize fundraisers, etc.  In these respects they are indeed quite loyal, at least to Republican incumbents: being friendly with national and state Republicans helps having things done. Still, they don't really change their issue positions much on anything - they'd be (politically) dead in months if they did.

[Sarnstrom]

New polls on CA Initiatives by Public Policy Institute of California
10/20-10/27:

CA Proposition 73 - Parental Notification of Abortion
No 48%      Yes 42%

CA Proposition 74 - Teacher Probation/Evaluation/Dismissal
No 48%      Yes 46%

CA Proposition 75 - Written Consent for Union Dues to Politics
No 46%      Yes 46%

CA Proposition 76 - Limit Spending Growth to Revenue Growth
No 62%      Yes 30%

CA Proposition 77 - Judges Draw Legislative Boundaries
No 50%      Yes 36%

CA Proposition 78 - Discounts on Prescription Drugs
Yes 43%     No 38%

CA Proposition 79 - Prescription Drug Discounts. State-Negotiated Rebates
No 40%      Yes 36%

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/politics/cal/la-me-cap27oct27,1,1791566.column?coll=la-news-politics-california

[Moooooo]

SUSA and CA Public Policy have been putting out ass backwards results.

[Citizen James]

God, I hope those first numbers are wrong.  I think a lot of the variation is the unexpectability of turnout.   Arnold is going for a similar strategy as Bush did (appeal to the extremists and try and make things ugly enough to convince the mainstream voters to stay home).

He sold himself as a moderate, but has been almost as extreme and vain as Bush in practice.  His war on teachers really ticks me off, and I will be making sure all my friends and relatives hit the polls to knock these initatives down.   If he gets creamed bad enough, maybe the Reps will replace him with a respectable conservative in the primaries.

[TheresNoMoney]

I'm hoping that every initiative included in Reform Ohio Now (RON) will pass this November.