Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[bagelman]

Imagine being Rick Scott. All you have to do, in order to win the Senate, is pick up one seat. Inflation is at a 40 year high. The President’s approvals are lacklustre. Precedent is on your side.

And then, well…

He was so used to being bailed out by dumb luck, winning every election by like 5 votes, that he didn't realize you had to actually TRY to win elections.

In other words, he wasn't used to running elections outside of Florida.

[bagelman]

Man, Sisolak really let us all down. Kept us from breaking the 1830 record, kept us from tying up the number of Governorships held by each party, and as I recall, an imminent appointment next year will now keep NV's Supreme Court in Republican hands rather than flipping it to Democrats.

I sincerely think his right wing stance regarding unions killed his chances. He has nobody to blame but himself.

[bagelman]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1591823911356076032

What a bunch of morons. If only these states counted votes promptly, then it would be harder for these lunatics to find false excuses to cry fraud.

[bagelman]

I put all the results we know about into https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-flip-senate-house/ including OR-5 and AK and it gives me GOP 92% of House control with most projections having at least 225 seats. A very slight overestimation due to an unexpected R trend in NY-19 and VA-2.

It's so ironic how the special elections turned out to be right in regards to a neutral year and clearly showing a sign that this was not going to be a 2010/14 style midterm of doom, but NY-19 was probably the second most prominent of these specials besides AK and it flipped back.

[bagelman]

Also lol at Gaetz being the worst performing Republican despite also facing the worst Democratic opponent.

Turner's performance is truly remarkable, especially since otherwise OH-10 seems like a relatively polarized district.

All things considered, LA-02 swinging left is interesting.

A. Dayton black turnout always collapses during a midterm. I don't think any Democrat other than Sherrod Brown won Montgomery county in 2018.

B. Pretty sure DeWine got a similar performance,

C. Turner always does solid although this seat is actually a bit more D than his old seat.

D. IIRC his Dem opponent had some major issues. I am trying to find that article.

Met Mike DeWine in person some (30) years back, when he was but a simple local PUB REP of mine in SW-OH.

There was a broad based coalition of voters, including environmentalists, union voters, military vets and concerned citizens regarding the establishment of a hazardous waste incineration facility getting established in our backyards, basically some type of weird EPA loophole which had first been passed under Bush Sr, but Bill Clinton's administration is not going to block.

Around (30) of us were invited to his house, where I believe he still lives, and his wife brought out tea, coffee, ice tea, and cookies on the front porch.

Mike listened patiently to our concerns regarding the toxic waste incineration plant concerns, and how it related to a Bush Sr / Clinton loophole, and although the various "test burns" at the plant ended up continuing for a few more years, pretty sure that the Hazardous Waste Incineration Plant permit finally ended up getting denied a few more years down the line.

Mike DeWine is one of those PUB GOVs who can easily overperform, simply because of his humanity and gravitas over the years, even when talking to voters who might assume that he is opposed to their positions on one or two political issues.

Even Trump never tried to take out DeWine for precisely that reason...

When DeWine was renominated I was so relieved. Ohio was more likely than not (and did) vote for any statewide candidate with an R next to their name, and it's so much nicer to be under DeWine than under some nutjob. I confess I ended up voting for him in the general. It's not like he wasn't already winning.

[bagelman]

Off topic, but Brazilian not being Hispanic doesn't sound to me like a distinction most would notice besides the easily offended and nerds. I'm sure there's some historical context I'm forgetting or whatever but Brazil was colonized by Portugal, and Portugal happens to be part of the Roman province of Hispania from which the name is derived. It's like a Scottish person insisting that they're not British.

It is hilarious that a man who supports DACA and SALT also attending 1/6, a violent revolt against both policies. It's like wanting moderately liberal policies while supporting the aesthetics of fascism.

[bagelman]

Off topic, but Brazilian not being Hispanic doesn't sound to me like a distinction most would notice besides the easily offended and nerds. I'm sure there's some historical context I'm forgetting or whatever but Brazil was colonized by Portugal, and Portugal happens to be part of the Roman province of Hispania from which the name is derived. It's like a Scottish person insisting that they're not British.

I would say Latin countries, rather than Hispanic.

If you insist, but I'm yet to be convinced that Brazil as Hispanic is "wrong" even if Latino is "more right". This isn't worth arguing over though.

[bagelman]

Back on topic: is this callable yet? Lake needs a monster margin from the Maricopa dump to stay in this. I don't expect that happening at all at this point.

[bagelman]

Stop feeding the troll

[bagelman]

4 uncalled races (excluding Alaska and ME-02)

CA-13 (Gray-D vs Duarte-R)
CA-22 (Salas-D vs Valadao-R)
CA-47 (Porter-D vs Baugh-R)
CO-03 (Fisch-D vs Boebert-R)

Current makeup is 219R-212D.

If D's win all 4, it's 219R-216D.
If D's win all but 1, it's 220R-215D.
If D's only win half, it's 221R-214D.
If D's only win 1, it's 222R-213D.
If D's lose all of them, it's 223R-212D.

I think Porter and Boebert both win, so 219R and 223R are exceptionally unlikely.

I'm bullish on CA-13, so not 222R.

We're very likely looking at 220R or 221R.

That's not even that small of a margin over Dems, and yet Dems are declaring victory for cutting their losses.

Kevin McCarthy will be the next speaker. Is that a victory to you, Democrats?

Are you a troll? I mean your name is literally Anxious Pessimist Doomer. It sounds like you're trying to do a parody of SnowLabador or Millennial Moderate.

I honestly think so.

[bagelman]

Atlas should not Shrug...

Haha nice

I was gifted that book when I was 18 and I liked it. Not my fav book in the world, and I didn't run around recommending it to everyone like I do with favorites of mine, but I enjoyed it and felt some sympathy with the main character and respected his philosophy.

Years later, when I became aware of Ron and then Rand Paul and Ayn Rand's novels became a hot topic due to being at least partly a source of their libertarian philosophy, I was kinda confused. I don't identify with the Paul's politically. Like, at all. I find Rand especially to be an absolutely insufferable hypocrite. Most libertarians were born on third and think they hit a triple.  Yet here I had enjoyed this book but had seemingly taken away a completely different lesson from it than most others readers had.
Did I completely miss some central themes to the book having read it in my youth? Possible, but I was reading some advanced s*** from a very young age due to being the youngest of a family of nine and there always being adult reading material around. Like Tom Clancy novels when I was not yet in 5th grade.

Ah, well. Perhaps I'm reading into it too much and you can simply enjoy a book without agreeing with the author's fundamental worldview. Also I haven't read it in forever so don't remember too much detail.

Lolz.. don't want to distract nor hijack the thread, and quite frankly never read any of the Kook's books.

Still, way back a couple years after first lurking on Atlas Forum, we and my GF (Spouse now) spent a really awesome (3) day vacation in Coos Bay Oregon in a Hot Tub Suite for my B-Day.

Already got bottles of Champagne purchased prior to arrival.

Needless to say, we and my current wife spent my B-Day in the Hot Tub, sipping Champagne watching a crazy '08 PUB debate, where Ron Paul actually seems like the most sane PUB on the stage.

Fast forward an election later, Ron Paul is running for PRES in '12 and then we were living in the Bay Area.

Hitting a farmers market area on a Saturday shopping day in Palo Alto, while living in Cupertino, next thing you know we got a ton of college students from Stanford approaching everyone on the main drag asking people to sign petitions so that Ron Paul can run from PRES as an Indy!

Still, as someone who first started lurking in Atlas around '05-'07, and then first stared posting in '08, the whole Libertarian meme thing exploded with Ron Paul, with all sorts of memes, even before they were actually an Atlas thing back in the dayz...

But yeah, still find it curious why this site is named "Atlas Forums"...

Named after the US Election Atlas that Dave Leip created, Atlas Forum is implied short for US Election Atlas Forum. "Atlas" is used here as a collection of maps and charts, which is its normal definition.

[bagelman]

When will this finally end for real?

[bagelman]

I think it's been long enough. Barring a few unlikely surprises, below is the map after the 2022 midterms. Above is a respost of what we got in 2020 for comparison.

There’s no point in quoting reactionary posts from when <1% of the vote was in.

There is a certain satisfaction in reliving just how wrong some of the insufferably arrogant doomers were.

Not to mention great relief they turned out to be wrong.

[bagelman]

Here's a map showing where the parties made gains in the US House relative to 2020: